FXUS65 KABQ 271743 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1143 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 - Moisture will remain in place across eastern New Mexico this week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms through Thursday may become strong to severe, mainly from the central mountain chain eastward. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. - Drier storms with little to no rainfall and erratic downburst winds are possible between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain, especially by mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 Low level moisture pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain last evening, though the gap winds have since ended. Much of this low level moisture should mix out west of the Central Mountain Chain this afternoon, though enough mid level moisture will remain present that virga with gusty winds will again develop late in the afternoon. Meanwhile, low level moisture will persist across eastern NM and will be nudged up against the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain. The difference from yesterday is that an upper level ridge will shift overhead today, limiting the shear. The weak upslope onto the Central Mountain Chain will allow storms to form over the high terrain this afternoon, but storm motion will be slow and erratic. Outflow boundaries will guide where most storms move, though a general east or southeast drift is most likely. Isolated storms may also develop across the eastern plains as well. Enough instability exists for a storm or two to become strong or severe, particularly near or just east of the South Central Mountains, but the limited shear (<25kt 0-6km bulk shear) will keep these storms brief and/or not as well organized as yesterday. Main concern is additional rainfall on the HPCC burn scar which has received two days in a row of heavy rainfall and more rain is expected today. Localized flash flooding will be possible given the antecedent rainfall and wet soils. Much of the activity will diminish or move into Texas before the midnight hour. A brief gap wind for the Rio Grande Valley may occur this evening due to outflows from the storms east of the Central Mountain Chain. Storm coverage across eastern NM will trend up on Wednesday with severe storms likely. Scattered storms should develop along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain during the early afternoon hours before shifting eastward into more instability across the plains through early evening. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to steepen, allowing for 1000-1500 J/Kg of surface based CAPE across the plains in the afternoon. Shear will also increase as an upper level jet undercutting the upper high drifts northward over NM during the day. 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt will be present allowing for more organized storms than today. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main concerns with storms on Wednesday. The east central and southeast plains will be favored for severe weather, however, a secondary area will be focused across far northeast NM late in the afternoon and evening as a cold front plunges into the state. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 235 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 Evening convection is likely to be ongoing Wednesday night, though a moist backdoor cold front works to hamper these chances as we move later into the night. Models differ on the strength and timing of this front, with the GFS being the most robust. In turn, it also brings the strongest east canyon wind through Wednesday night. The GFS seems a bit overdone with this solution, especially considering ensemble cluster analysis favors a weaker front. Most likely scenario is a weaker (but still moist) front pushes into northeast NM Wednesday evening, providing a stable air mass and hampering overnight convection. Some thunderstorms may be able to initiate on the front itself, but confidence is higher in thunder-absent showers behind the front, if any precipitation develops overnight. A breezy to temporarily gusty east canyon wind is likely as well, and may be enhanced by remnant outflow boundaries pushing through the gaps of the mountains as well. The moist airmass behind the front settles into eastern NM into Thursday, modifying and becoming more unstable with daytime mixing. An additional round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms once again are possible, with an isolated stronger storm or two. Higher confidence in precipitation lies across the northeast, where an embedded disturbance circling a closed low over the Upper Midwest works to drive some enhanced precipitation over this region. These showers and thunderstorms may also have an additional orographic component to them, which could aid in any stronger storms developing due to increased forcing. This additional lifting component also should work to overcome a layer of subsidence in the low levels, left by the backdoor front. The HPCC burn scar could see an increased risk of flooding as well with moist upslope flow along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Friday into the weekend, the upper level pattern begins to shift. Initially, a weak ridge attempts to stick around, and the trend of afternoon showers and storms continue. Going into Sunday, a closed low off the coast of southern CA begins to push inland, allowing the moisture to mix out of eastern NM and bringing heightened precipitation chances to western NM. Additionally, upper level southwest flow begins to increase as the low approaches, which may return some locally breezy conditions late weekend and into next week. There remain subtle differences within model runs, mainly if the low becomes absorbed into an approaching longwave trough or remains separated from it, the former bringing slightly higher precipitation chances. Regardless, a pattern shift is favored late weekend. CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook quantifies the thinking well, with chances for above average precipitation higher for western NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 High based cumulus has begun to develop over the mountains late this morning, which will eventually become isolated showers and storms by the afternoon. Storms today will favor the high terrain of western NM and the central mountain chain, with a storm or two drifting into the eastern plains by the mid to late afternoon. The best chance for a severe storm will be in the southeast plains, with gusty outflow winds the main concern with any convection in western NM. High clouds from the afternoon's convection will continue through most of the night, before eventually clearing out by late tomorrow morning. There is a low chance (10-20%) of MVFR cigs in the eastern plains, including at KTCC, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 A tale of two halves this week. Eastern NM will continue to see daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms as low level moisture sloshes diurnally back and forth. Storm motions will generally be toward the east and southeast. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning. Meanwhile western NM will remain largely dry, but with virga showers resulting in gusty and erratic winds. Minimum relative humidity values will be less than 15% each afternoon with poor to fair humidity recoveries each night. Along the western edge of the better moisture as well as across western NM, isolated dry lightning will be a concern, especially Wed through Fri. Depending on when the cut off low west of the Baja Peninsula starts to eject out, better low level moisture may reach western NM by this weekend, increasing the chances for more widespread wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 84 49 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 80 39 81 39 / 10 10 20 5 Cuba............................ 77 46 81 48 / 10 5 10 5 Gallup.......................... 82 40 84 41 / 10 10 5 0 El Morro........................ 77 45 79 47 / 20 20 10 0 Grants.......................... 82 42 83 43 / 10 10 10 0 Quemado......................... 80 45 81 48 / 20 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 52 81 54 / 10 10 10 0 Datil........................... 77 46 79 49 / 20 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 85 41 87 43 / 20 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 87 46 91 49 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 72 39 75 40 / 20 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 75 52 77 52 / 20 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 71 48 77 48 / 30 10 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 45 74 45 / 10 20 30 20 Red River....................... 62 38 65 38 / 20 20 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 65 34 70 35 / 20 10 30 20 Taos............................ 75 41 78 41 / 10 10 20 10 Mora............................ 69 41 75 43 / 40 10 30 20 Espanola........................ 82 49 84 49 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 75 52 79 51 / 20 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 51 82 50 / 20 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 58 86 58 / 10 10 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 54 87 56 / 5 10 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 53 90 55 / 5 10 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 56 88 57 / 5 10 10 5 Belen........................... 87 50 89 50 / 5 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 86 54 89 55 / 5 10 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 87 49 89 50 / 5 10 10 5 Corrales........................ 86 54 89 56 / 5 10 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 87 51 89 52 / 5 10 10 5 Placitas........................ 81 56 84 56 / 10 10 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 85 55 89 56 / 5 10 10 5 Socorro......................... 90 56 91 56 / 5 10 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 49 80 50 / 10 10 10 10 Tijeras......................... 79 51 81 51 / 10 10 10 10 Edgewood........................ 78 46 81 48 / 10 10 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 42 83 45 / 20 10 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 72 46 77 46 / 20 10 20 5 Mountainair..................... 79 47 81 47 / 10 10 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 79 47 81 47 / 20 20 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 84 53 84 54 / 20 10 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 74 49 77 50 / 30 10 30 5 Capulin......................... 70 45 74 43 / 20 10 50 40 Raton........................... 75 44 79 45 / 20 20 40 30 Springer........................ 75 45 79 47 / 20 10 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 70 45 78 45 / 20 10 30 10 Clayton......................... 74 52 80 48 / 20 10 40 50 Roy............................. 71 49 77 48 / 20 10 30 30 Conchas......................... 77 54 86 54 / 20 10 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 75 52 82 53 / 20 5 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 75 55 84 53 / 20 10 20 40 Clovis.......................... 76 57 84 55 / 20 20 20 30 Portales........................ 77 56 84 55 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 79 56 84 54 / 20 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 84 61 89 61 / 20 20 20 5 Picacho......................... 80 54 84 53 / 40 20 30 5 Elk............................. 81 49 84 50 / 40 30 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...16