FXUS65 KABQ 251120 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 453 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 - Near-record heat returning to most of the area Sunday after a cool down today, then eastern New Mexico Monday. - Fall storm system approaches Monday and Tuesday, with windy conditions and increasing chances for rain and high terrain snow across the north and west. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 A cold front has pushed into the eastern half of New Mexico, and this will set temperatures back several degrees today. Readings will struggle to reach normal in the eastern half of the state, but the western half will still run above average by 5 to 10 degrees today. Temperatures will rebound in eastern New Mexico this weekend with all areas soaring above normal along with near-record or record breaking high temperatures in many locations while dry conditions prevail. The weather pattern will start to turn more unsettled next week with cooler temperatures, breezy to windy conditions, and a chance for light rain and mountain snow in northwestern and north central New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Record heat across eastern NM gives way to a sharp cool down behind a cold front that has swept thru this morning. Daytime high temperatures will be 10F to 20F below what was observed Thursday, ranging from the low 60s near CO to the low 70s in Roswell. The cold front is only expected to squeak thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley, resulting less of a cool down the further west one goes toward AZ. The frontal boundary washes out today with surface winds veering back out of the south across eastern NM by Saturday. With an anomalously strong 594dm H5 high building over the northern Baja Peninsula alongside airmass modification across eastern NM, temperatures are forecast to rise considerably this weekend. Highs reach back into the 80s for many southern and lower elevation areas to include Roswell, Tucumcari, Clovis, Socorro, and Albuquerque. Above normal warmth continues Sunday as the H5 ridge remains the dominant weather player over New Mexico. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Monday begins the long term period with an amplifying polar jet digging out a deep troughing pattern over the PacNW. The ridge over the Baja and northwestern Mexico breaks down and southwesterly flow over NM increases. Temperatures back off from their well above normal and near record levels most areas. Chaves County and the Caprock near Clovis and Portales will stay warm another day as southerly return flow continues WAA into this part of the state. Otherwise, cooler, windier and wetter weather begins to arrive into western and northern NM Monday night. The GFS solution favors a slug of mid-level moisture being dug up into the Four Corners area Monday night, which looks to be earliest period for showers to break out. Valley rain and mountain snow intensify over the Four Corners region, especially along southwest facing slopes Tuesday morning as the main 115kt H3 jetmax rounds the base of the upper level trough. Some of this precipitation will spread eastward over the northern mountains of NM. Snow levels look to remain near 10,000' during this time as the main trough axis will be stalled over northeastern AZ despite the main jetmax passing through. The main trough axis passage over northern NM doesn't look to be until Wednesday, delaying the lowering of snow levels until after much of the precipitation has fallen. Thus any snow accumulations look to be relegated to the higher elevations above 9,000' over the Tusas and northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The main Pacific cold front swoops thru Wednesday bringing in a much more Fall like airmass across the state, while a backdoor cold front will advance into northeastern NM Wednesday night. A sharp drop in temperatures is forecast first Tuesday night as lows fall are favored to fall into the teens and 20s over western and northern NM and lower elevations of central NM. Wednesday night will be the coldest morning however after CAA fills in behind the Pacific front coincident with lowering wind speeds. Teens and 20s will be common place over the northwestern half of the forecast area with some single-digits possible in the coldest high elevation areas. These will be a season-ending freeze for many growers who are still chugging along at this point. Temperatures rebound Thursday and to end next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 VFR prevails as east canyon winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain subside this morning. Light prevailing winds across eastern NM steadily veer out of the east and south this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 A backdoor front has brought much cooler temperatures to eastern New Mexico, and this will translate to higher afternoon humidity today. Areas in western New Mexico will not be impacted by the front with above normal temperatures and low relative humidity plummeting to near 15 percent. Any gusty conditions are forecast to settle with light breezes prevailing by the afternoon. The front will be quickly forgotten by this weekend, as a strong dome of high pressure swells over the southwestern states and temperatures soar above average and close to record values across all of northern and central New Mexico. Humidity will start to plummet to the 15 to 25 percent range again in eastern areas, particularly by Sunday. A strong trough of low pressure will slowly move over the western states through the first half of next week, followed by another late in the work week. This will spell widespread breezy to windy conditions with cooler temperatures settling in. Precipitation will be confined to northwestern and north central New Mexico with generally light rain and mountain snow amounts. This shift in the weather pattern will not provide much in the way of appreciable fuel moisture, and in fact, freezing temperatures could become more expansive Tuesday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night, marking the seasonal curing of fuels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 74 41 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 28 74 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 67 38 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 77 31 77 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 74 41 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 73 33 78 35 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 77 39 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 71 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 74 41 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 82 39 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 85 51 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 34 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 39 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 54 34 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 59 24 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 64 33 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 62 34 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 70 36 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 64 45 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 52 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 44 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 41 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 46 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 38 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 72 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 35 79 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 72 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 37 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 69 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 78 46 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 65 44 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 69 45 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 67 36 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 31 77 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 38 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 69 39 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 70 39 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 76 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 45 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 59 35 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 61 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 64 31 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 62 36 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 63 39 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 60 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 66 40 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 40 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 39 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 70 44 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 72 44 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 41 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 73 49 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 68 44 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 43 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24