FXUS61 KAKQ 261900 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are possible ahead of a cold front this afternoon. A cold front crosses the area this evening, bringing drier weather for the weekend. A warming trend is expected by mid to late next week with unsettled weather returning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 255 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible across interior NE NC and S central VA this afternoon. Afternoon sfc analysis shows ~1023 mb high pressure centered over the Great Lakes with an effective cold front moving SW across the area. This front doesn't have a wind shift but does mark the edge of a line of CU with gusty ENE winds behind it up to 20-25 mph. Additionally, scattered showers have formed ahead of the boundary across interior NE NC and S central VA. An upper level shortwave drops from the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and towards the local area this afternoon. Meanwhile, zonal flow exists across NC into S VA which will help push moisture (aloft) into the area. At the surface, a weak surface low forms near the VA/NC border later this afternoon before sliding off the NC coast this evening. As the upper level features interact, they will aid in enough forcing for scattered showers to increase in coverage across S central VA and interior NE NC this afternoon. Have kept chance PoPs for now (40-54% PoPs) but may need to increase to likely PoPs if radar trends support it. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible. While most rainfall is expected to be light, locally 0.5- 1.0"+ is possible if storms become stationary (best chance is S VA along the I-95 corridor). Will note that a small area in SW Lunenburg County has already seen this much rain today. Clouds linger across S portions of the FA today with partial clearing N. Given the cloud cover, highs are expected to remain in the low-mid 80s. High pressure builds in from the N late tonight with mostly cloudy skies early and clearing late (across the N). Recent CAM trends have been for a band of moisture convergence overnight pivoting across S and SE portions of the FA. This may allow for drizzle or light showers across NE NC and SE VA overnight. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s N to the lower 70s S with most areas in the mid- upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: -Dry and pleasant this weekend with lower humidity. -Scattered showers and storms are possible late Monday into Monday night. Very pleasant weather is expected this weekend with highs in the mid- upper 80s (some areas may reach 90F Sun), afternoon dew points in the lower 60s (possibly upper 50s locally) inland, and mostly sunny skies. For late July, that's about as good as it gets. With high pressure overhead Sat night and clear skies, radiational cooling will allow for lows in the lower 60s inland (upper 50s locally) and mid 60s to around 70F along the coast. Sun night's lows will be warmer as S winds advect moisture back into the area with lows in the upper 60s to around 70F (locally mid 60s). Aloft, an upper level low moves inland from the Atlantic Ocean into New England Mon while an upper level trough moves towards the Mid Atlantic from the W (becoming negatively tilted as it does so). This places the local area in between these two features and therefore provides lower than normal confidence in the PoP forecast. S winds will advect moisture back into the area with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, poor mid level lapse rates may limit CAPE. That being said, N/NNW winds at 500mb are forecast to be ~30 kt at 500mb in the vicinity of the Ches Bay Mon afternoon. Depending on timing from the upper level trough, there may be enough forcing for isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon showers and storms. For now have 20-30% PoPs Mon afternoon and 30-35% PoPs Mon evening/night. Highs Mon in the mid-upper 80s S and upper 80s to around 90F N are expected with lows Mon night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Becoming unsettled by mid week with a gradual warming trend expected by late week. High pressure remains centered off the SE coast through the week with a series of shortwaves aloft moving towards the local area. This will allow for unsettled weather from mid to late week with increasing heat and humidity by late week. The highest PoPs are Tue (60% W to 30% E) as a shortwave trough pivots through. This will allow for scattered showers and storms and widespread cloud cover. Highs Tue in the mid 80s for most, although lower 80s are possible for areas if convection moves in early enough in the day. Otherwise, daily scattered showers and storms are possible through the week with PoPs generally 30-45% each afternoon/evening. A warming trend is expected for late week with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F Wed, lower 90s Thu, and low-mid 90s Fri. Lows remain generally in the 70s each night. Additionally heat indices rise above 100F by Thu with 100-105F possible Fri. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... A cold front continues to push S this afternoon with improving conditions behind it. CIGs have improved to mainly VFR at the terminals with MVFR CIGs lingering across portions of S VA and NE NC. MVFR CIGs return to NE NC and far SE VA (perhaps to ORF) this evening into tonight before improving to VFR by Sat morning as the drier air moves into the area. Scattered showers have been noted across S central VA and interior NE NC this afternoon and are expected to continue across these areas through the afternoon before tapering of this evening. Some guidance suggest the potential for light showers or drizzle at ECG and perhaps up to ORF overnight as the upper level features move closer to the local area. However, confidence is low in any VIS restrictions due to drizzle/light showers. Any drizzle/showers move offshore by Sat morning with clearing skies expected from N to S. Additionally, cannot rule out some patchy fog across W/NW portions of the FA late tonight with any clearing that may occur. Winds this afternoon were ENE 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind the front. Winds become calm overnight inland and ENE 5 kt along the coast. NE winds increase to 5-10 kt Sat. Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persist Saturday into early next week with drier conditions behind the cold front. Unsettled weather is possible from mid to late week. && .MARINE... As of 300 pm EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A few NE gusts to 20 kt in the southern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters this evening. - Generally tranquil through the weekend with NE winds of 5-15 kt Saturday becoming southerly by Sunday evening. - Southerly winds of 10-15 kt with chances for thunderstorms each day next week. NE winds are slowly coming down behind the cold frontal passage this morning. Most places now less than 15 kt although there are still a few gusts to 20 kt especially at the elevated sites. With the high pressure building from the north tonight, expect the NE winds to continue while slowly decreasing especially across the northern waters. E-NE winds will continue at the 5 to 15 kt range on Saturday (highest winds lower bay and southern coastal waters) before the high shifts offshore by Sunday. This will allow winds to turn southerly by Sunday evening. Summerlike marine conditions return for next week with much of the week dominated by southerly winds at 10 to 15 kt. Seas generally 2 to 4 feet over the ocean and 1 to 3 feet in the bay through the forecast period. Will maintain the moderate rip current risk for the southern waters on Saturday due to the NE flow and surf up to 3 ft. Northern waters will remain low on Saturday with lighter onshore flow and waves only around 2 ft. Low rip current risk on Sunday with high pressure overhead. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...MRD