FXUS61 KAKQ 111513

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1013 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure will be centered over the region for most of this
week, bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.


As of 1010 AM EST Monday...

Temps as of 10 AM ranged from the mid 30s NW to the mid 40s SE. Rain
and snow has ended across the area as the low pressure
continues to move NE away from the local area. Clouds will clear
from W to E this morning but gravity waves may linger over the
W Piedmont for a few hours. Any snow will melt quickly today and
should be gone by this afternoon. While the snow and clouds
should keep temps done a few degrees from guidance for the next
couple of hours, temps are expected to rise into the mid 40 NW
to around 50F SE this afternoon.


As of 500 AM EST Monday...

High pressure will remain centered over the region with a zonal
flow aloft, bringing clear and dry conditions. Temperatures
will remain seasonal through much of this week. High
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and low
temperatures will in the 20s and lower 30s. A secondary, and a
much stronger (~1042 mb), sfc high pressure will build into
region as a trough off the Northeast U.S. coast deepens.
Temperatures will remain similar and dry weather continues.


As of 200 AM EST Monday...

High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry
conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area
Sun into Mon while the ECMWF is dry with the low pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico. Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM
PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon. Otherwise, a cold
front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on
Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower
50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun.
Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast
Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu
night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to
mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s
to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to
lower 40s SE Sun night.


As of 1245 AM EST Monday...

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through the rest
of the night, then conditions improve later this morning.
Rounds of rain will continue through the rest of the night
behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be
likely in any steadier rain. Winds behind the front are out of
the NW and at 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest
speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is
expected as well into early tonight at ECG. As the storm system
moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain
may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a
rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z).
Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected today. NW
winds will gradually subside through the day.

Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.


As of 310 AM EST Monday...

The surface cold front has cleared the local waters early this
morning. Winds have turned NW ~30 kt with gusts around 40 kt
behind the boundary. Waves in the bay are 3-6 ft with seas
offshore 6-9 ft.

NW winds 25-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt will continue for a few
more hours, especially near and south of the mouth of the Ches Bay.
Winds slowly decrease through the morning with Gale Warnings coming
to an end by this afternoon. Will need to issue SCA headlines for
late morning into the afternoon/evening as winds average 20-25 kt
with gusts to 30 kt. Winds fall below SCA thresholds in the bay by
early tonight but 5+ ft seas will linger offshore into Tuesday
morning. High pressure builds into the region today and lingers into
mid week before another stronger (~1040mb) high moves in behind a
dry frontal passage. Winds will increase behind this front with a
period of SCA conditions possible Wednesday night. Seas could rise
above 5 ft for the southern Atlantic waters during this timeframe as
well. High pressure lingers through the end of the week with models
disagreeing substantially regarding the potential for another area
of low pressure this weekend.


MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-631-650-
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633-
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ658.