FXUS61 KAKQ 112341
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
741 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for severe weather is diminishing this evening,
though locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out across far north
and northwest portions of the area. A very low but nonzero tornado threat
exists across central VA, the northern neck, and Lower MD
Eastern Shore from now-midnight. All Gale warnings have ended,
replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Most of the headlines last
through Monday. All High Surf Advisories have been cancelled.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The Tornado Watch has been cancelled. The threat for
severe weather is diminishing this evening, though locally
heavy rain cannot be ruled out across far north and northwest
portions of the area. A very low but nonzero tornado threat
exists across central VA, the northern neck, and Lower MD
Eastern Shore from now-midnight.
2) A brief warmup is expected early next week with cooler temperatures
later in the week. Much cooler temperatures arrive next
weekend.
3) Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through
late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA
along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside
of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor
flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 735 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The Tornado Watch has been cancelled. The threat for
severe weather is diminishing this evening, though locally
heavy rain cannot be ruled out across far north and northwest
portions of the area. A very low but nonzero tornado threat
exists across central VA, the northern neck, and Lower MD
Eastern Shore from now-midnight.
The severe/tornado threat has ended across south-central VA,
and the Tornado Watch has been cancelled. Evening wx analysis
shows that the remnant low of Isaias is tracking across south-
central VA and is beginning to occlude. Winds have become SW
across Mecklenburg/Lunenburg Counties on the back side of the
low behind a weak front. A CAD airmass has remained in place
across most of the Piedmont into Caroline/Western Hanover
Counties. A broken line of showers has developed near the triple
point and extends ESE to the Tri-Cities area. Even though low-
level shear is fairly high with surface winds out of the SE
ahead of the front and near the triple point, the showers have
struggled to show much in the way of persistent rotation.
Therefore, the Tornado Watch has been cancelled. Still, will
have to closely monitor areas near that triple point (RIC Metro-
Northern Neck/Eastern Shore) as the low tracks NE during the
next few hours. Can't completely rule out a brief tornado here
but confidence is too low to issue another watch.
Outside of the tornado threat, these storms will likely produce
very heavy rainfall rates. Therefore, locally heavy rain and
flash flooding is possible, especially if convection can
somewhat stall along the triple point. Convection tapers off
this evening from SW to NE behind the line of storms. However,
CAMs show additional showers on the back side of the low
tonight into early Mon morning across mainly the northern half
of the area.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief warmup is expected early next week with
cooler temperatures later in the week. Much cooler temperatures
arrive next weekend.
An upper level ridge centered across the central CONUS
gradually builds into the region through the week. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure remains centered across the Deep South
through midweek before a second area of high pressure builds in
from the north late in the week. This will bring a warmup with
highs in the 70s for most Mon, lower 80s for most Tue (upper
70s across the Eastern Shore), and mid-upper 80s (most in the
upper 80s) Wed. Some locations could approach 90F on Wed across
portions of central/SE VA and NE NC. Slightly cooler
temperatures return from Thu to Fri behind a cold front with
highs in the low- mid 70s north to lower 80s south. However,
these temperatures are still above normal for most (apart from
northern portions of the FA). Actually cooler weather returns
next weekend as a strong cold front moves into the region with a
strong area of high pressure building in behind it. Breezy NW
winds and highs in the mid-upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE are
expected next weekend underneath a strong trough. If this trough
is fully realized, we could be looking at the first frost of the
season across portions of the area. The latest NBM has lows in
the mid-upper 30s across the Piedmont and mid-upper 40s closer
to the coast Sat and Sun nights. Otherwise, dry weather
continues for most of the week apart from the chance for some
scattered showers Thu night into Fri across mainly N/NE
portions of the FA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements continue through
late afternoon/early evening for portions of east-central VA
along the Bay, tidal Rappahannock/Potomac, and across the bayside
of the lower Maryland and VA eastern shore for nuisance to Minor
flooding.
Ongoing nuisance to minor tidal flooding this afternoon/early
evening for the middle Peninsula/northern Neck, and the lower
Maryland eastern shore Bay zones. High tides have passed closer
to the Ocean and across SE VA so the Statements there have ended.
Winds becoming S-SW by tonight so additional flooding is not
anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...
Primarily MVFR conditions prevail this evening with IFR CIGs
hanging on at SBY. The remnant low of Isaias is tracking NE
across south-central VA and will exit to the NE later tonight.
There is a low probability of showers/tstms at RIC/SBY from
now-03z as the low passes by. Confidence regarding lightning
continues to be low at this time. Therefore, have maintained PROB30s
for TSRA at RIC/SBY for the next few hours. Winds become SW
then W overnight on the back side of the low and could gust to
20 kt. Also, IFR CIGs likely pivot back into the area later
tonight. CIGs are expected to drop back down to IFR at PHF/ORF
as well beginning around 06-10z and continuing until 13-15z.
CIGs remain generally MVFR through Mon afternoon apart from SBY
where IFR CIGs could continue through 17-18z.
Outlook: Improving conditions are expected late Monday through
late week with mainly VFR and dry conditions favored at this
time.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have replaced all Gale Warnings on the
Ocean and mouth of the Bay, and have dropped Small Craft
Advisories through early evening for the remainder of the Bay
and rivers.
- Additional Small Craft Advisories return later tonight,
lasting through Monday for all but the upper rivers as SW
winds increase, followed by elevated NW winds persisting
through Monday aftn.
Surface analysis indicates Isaias' remnant low situated across
south-central VA and north-central NC, with a sfc warm front
extending NE into the eastern shore. Winds are mainly S-SE at
~15 kt south of the front and E-SE at 15-25 kt to the north.
All Gale Warnings have been discontinued on the Ocean/mouth of
the Bay, replaced with SCAs that prevail through Monday.
Elsewhere, allowed SCAs to drop off until this evening, but then
have SCAs returning for all but the upper rivers late this
evening/overnight when the sfc low lifts NE, allowing for SW
winds to increase back to 15-20 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft,
except higher to ~5 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Seas are 5-8
ft, but up to 10-11 ft well offshore.
A cold front is forecast to cross the waters in the wake of the
departing system Monday morning, with NW winds 15-25 kt as
cooler and drier air filters into the region. Mainly sub-SCA
conditions Mon night through mid to late week. Another front
likely crosses the waters late Wed into Thurs with increasing N
and NE winds. Long range models are starting to key in on a much
stronger frontal passage next weekend.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-
631.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633-639.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AC/RMM/ERI
AVIATION...ERI/RMM
MARINE...LKB/RHR