FXUS61 KALY 140807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
307 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue today through the upcoming weekend
with temperatures trending back to slightly above normal values
by the weekend. A cold front may bring some light precipitation
to the area Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper-level ridge will begin to break down today as an
upper- level shortwave approaches from the west. This will lead
to some increasing high clouds throughout the day. This
shortwave and surface low pressure system will bypass our area
to the south with precipitation staying well to our south and
east through tonight. As a result, dry weather will continue.
After a cold start, temperatures will rebound back into the
40s by this afternoon. Lows will fall back into the 20s for most
areas tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We will remain under the influence of surface high pressure and
a rebuilding upper level ridge Friday into Saturday as a low
pressure system lifts northwestward into Atlantic Canada. The
precipitation shield with this system has trended farther to the
east, so dry weather is expected to continue under a mostly
clear sky. Temperatures will rebound closer to seasonable levels
on Friday with highs in the mid-40s to mid-50s then above
normal on Saturday with highs in the mid-40s to near 60. The
increasing pressure gradient between the high and Atlantic
Canada low will result in breezy conditions both days with some
gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph. With the dry air in place,
conditions may favor an elevated risk for fire ignition and
spread. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread wetting rainfall is still not expected through the
extended period, with just some spotty showers possible Sunday
night into Monday as a moisture-starved system tracks across
Quebec with a trailing cold front passing through the region.
Some gusty winds will also be possible as the front passes
through Monday.

In the wake of this front, breezy conditions are expected
Tuesday with some lingering spotty rain showers across the
southern Adirondacks. Fair weather should return by Wednesday.

Temperatures will be slightly above seasonal levels, with
daytime highs in the 50s to lower 60s Sunday and Monday,
cooling to the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Overnight lows mainly in the 30s Monday/Tuesday
morning, and mid 20s to lower/mid 30s by Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z/Fri...VFR conditions through the period, along with
light and variable winds. High clouds will gradually increase
Thursday afternoon and evening, with Cigs generally above 20000
FT AGL.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement is issued for western New England
for today as the combination of low RH values and abnormally
dry conditions will lead to an increased risk of ignition.

RH values will lower to 20 to 35 percent this afternoon. Winds,
however, will be light at less than 10 mph.

A northwesterly breeze will pick up on Friday and Saturday with
gusts in some spots between 20 and 25 mph and RH values
lowering to 25 to 40 percent each afternoon. Additional fire
weather products may therefore be needed across the region.
While a few light showers are possible Sunday night into Monday,
a widespread wetting rainfall is not expected through early
next week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...Picard/Rathbun