FXUS61 KALY 140807 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 307 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue today through the upcoming weekend with temperatures trending back to slightly above normal values by the weekend. A cold front may bring some light precipitation to the area Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper-level ridge will begin to break down today as an upper- level shortwave approaches from the west. This will lead to some increasing high clouds throughout the day. This shortwave and surface low pressure system will bypass our area to the south with precipitation staying well to our south and east through tonight. As a result, dry weather will continue. After a cold start, temperatures will rebound back into the 40s by this afternoon. Lows will fall back into the 20s for most areas tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... We will remain under the influence of surface high pressure and a rebuilding upper level ridge Friday into Saturday as a low pressure system lifts northwestward into Atlantic Canada. The precipitation shield with this system has trended farther to the east, so dry weather is expected to continue under a mostly clear sky. Temperatures will rebound closer to seasonable levels on Friday with highs in the mid-40s to mid-50s then above normal on Saturday with highs in the mid-40s to near 60. The increasing pressure gradient between the high and Atlantic Canada low will result in breezy conditions both days with some gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph. With the dry air in place, conditions may favor an elevated risk for fire ignition and spread. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread wetting rainfall is still not expected through the extended period, with just some spotty showers possible Sunday night into Monday as a moisture-starved system tracks across Quebec with a trailing cold front passing through the region. Some gusty winds will also be possible as the front passes through Monday. In the wake of this front, breezy conditions are expected Tuesday with some lingering spotty rain showers across the southern Adirondacks. Fair weather should return by Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly above seasonal levels, with daytime highs in the 50s to lower 60s Sunday and Monday, cooling to the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows mainly in the 30s Monday/Tuesday morning, and mid 20s to lower/mid 30s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z/Fri...VFR conditions through the period, along with light and variable winds. High clouds will gradually increase Thursday afternoon and evening, with Cigs generally above 20000 FT AGL. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Special Weather Statement is issued for western New England for today as the combination of low RH values and abnormally dry conditions will lead to an increased risk of ignition. RH values will lower to 20 to 35 percent this afternoon. Winds, however, will be light at less than 10 mph. A northwesterly breeze will pick up on Friday and Saturday with gusts in some spots between 20 and 25 mph and RH values lowering to 25 to 40 percent each afternoon. Additional fire weather products may therefore be needed across the region. While a few light showers are possible Sunday night into Monday, a widespread wetting rainfall is not expected through early next week. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Picard/Rathbun