FXUS61 KALY 111758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Becoming blustery today. Some lingering lake effect and upslope snow
showers could continue into tonight. Another disturbance and cold
front is expected to pass over the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday which could trigger some lake effect snow showers during
this time. Temperatures will fluctuate some, but will average out
milder than normal over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All headlines have been dropped. Low continues to deepen as it
tracks northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon.
Westerly winds on the backside of the system are picking up and
becoming brisk and gusty. These winds may lead to some power
outages in areas that received the greater amounts of wet snow.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [10 am]...Complicated forecast with snowfall
mainly dependent on elevation. Highest snowfall reports we have
received are from the eastern Catskills: Halcott Center 8.0 inches,
East Jewett 7.5 inches and West Kill 6.5 inches and from western
Schenectady County Delanson 6.5 inches.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [6:30 AM EST]....Rain has transitioned over
to snow for much of the local forecast area. Some of the valley
locations are still toggling back and forth between rain and
snow showers. Going forecast remains on good shape. Just made
slight changes to the hourly temperature and dewpoint grids to
reflect current observations and forecast trends. See previous
discussion below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [450 AM EST]...Snow will taper off from
west to east during the mid morning to early afternoon hours as
the storm stem departs to our east- northeast. Lowered snow
amounts from overnight slightly. Total snow amounts are expected
to be in the 5-10 inch range for the highest of elevations.
Elsewhere, anywhere from a trace to 5 inches is expected. With
the system snow ending over the area, there could be some
lingering lake effect and upslope snow showers impacting parts
of the area into tonight before waning. Otherwise, expect for
drier weather conditions to resume.

With a 1025-1030 mb surface high pressure system to our southwest
over Appalachia and the Southeast U.S, and the departing low
pressure system to our northeast, a tightened pressure gradient will
result in blustery conditions developing this afternoon. Winds are
expected to gusts out of the west-northwest between 20-30 kts. There
could be some locally higher gusts over the Mohawk Valley, Capital
District into the Berkshires due channeling winds down the Mohawk.
Winds coupled with any snow load on the trees could result in some
power outages.

High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s along the
river valleys and 30s over the higher elevations. Low temperatures
tonight are expected to fall into the mid to upper 20s along the
river valleys with pockets of teens over the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday we'll see a brief reprieve from any precipitation. Tuesday
night into Wednesday, a cold front attached to a shortwave/cyclonic
flow aloft passing mostly to our north will bring another round of
lake effect snow showers to parts of the area. Our western zones
(i.e. southwestern ADKS, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie) will be
the most favored to see lake effect snow with west-northwest winds
off Lake Ontario. Initially, the lake effect band is expected to
start over our northwestern zones (i.e. southwestern ADKS into the
Mohawk Valley) Tuesday evening/night before shifting southward on
Wednesday into the Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills. There
could be instances where fragments of lake effect snow showers reach
the Capital Region as winds could be quite blustery off the lake.

Some models, particularly the Canadian models, are signaling for
the potential for this lake effect snow event to be a decent one.
All will depend on the amount of low level instability over/just off
Lake Ontario and placement of the dendritic growth zone (dgz). Low
level lapse rates Tuesday night int Wednesday were sampled between 7-
9 C/km and mid level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km. Lake effect snow
showers are expected to dwindle in coverage Wednesday afternoon
before coming to an end Wednesday evening/night as a strong and
stout surface high pressure system builds into the region from the
central U.S.

Before the cold fropa, a mild day on Tuesday is expected with high
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 40s along the river
valleys and 30s higher elevations. Behind the cold fropa on
Wednesday, high temperatures are expected to only be in the upper 30s
to lower 40s along the river valleys (Upper 20s higher elevations).
Low temperatures Tuesday night are expected to be in the upper 20s
to near 30F along the river valleys (mid 20s higher elevations). On
Wednesday night, low temperatures are expected to only be in the
upper teens to lower 20s along the river valleys (low to mid teens
higher elevations).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Behind a departing upper level shortwave, the flow aloft will be
flattening out for the late week. Upper level heights may gradually
build, with warming temps aloft, by the weekend as well.  At the
surface, strong high pressure will nose into the area from the west
and gradually pass across the region, and heading off to the east by
the weekend.

As a result, mainly dry weather is expected through the long term
period.  The flow aloft won't be favorable for any lake effect
precip, so it should be precip-free across the region from Thursday
into the start of the weekend.  It's possible that a few showers
from a northern stream disturbance could impact the region by later
Sunday, but this is uncertain due to being so far out.  In addition,
there's also the possibility for a coastal system to brush the
region late in the weekend into early next week, but this is also
very uncertain.

While it will be still rather chilly for Thursday (daytime temps in
the 30s), there will be a warming trend for Friday into the weekend.
 Above normal temps look to be favored, with most areas seeing
daytime highs well into the 40s.  Because of this, any possible
precip late in the weekend or early next week would be rain (if it
occurs).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure continues to move northeast into the Canadian
Maritimes this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will
briefly build in from the Mid Atlantic Region overnight before
the next weak disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes Region
tomorrow.

Some MVFR/low VFR stratocumulus continues this afternoon in the
wake of the storm system. The MVFR cigs are in the 1.5-2.5 kft
AGL range at KALB/KPSF and will likely impact KGFL. KPOU will
remain VFR in the 3.5-4.0 kft AGL range. The cigs should improve
21Z/MON-00Z/TUE with SCT-BKN VFR cigs in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range
prior to 06Z/TUE. Expect clearing skies with few-sct
stratocumulus and sct-bkn cirrus moving in prior to 12Z-14Z/TUE.
A few snow showers may linger near KPSF/KGFL with VCSH groups
included prior to 22Z/MON.

The winds will increase from the west to northwest at 12-18 KT
with some gusts 25-30 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds will decrease
to 10 KT or less between 00Z-06Z/TUE...and will be west to
southwest at 4-8 KT overnight. The winds will be south to
southwest 5-10 KT late tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
One to 3 inches of precipitation fell across the area resulting
in rises on area streams, creeks and river.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA/Evbuoma
NEAR TERM...IAA/Evbuoma
SHORT TERM...Evbuoma
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...IAA