FXUS64 KAMA 310506 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across the eastern Panhandles. - Frost and Freeze Warnings have been issued for the western and northern Panhandles tonight. - Weather looks to become active this weekend with the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This will also bring a low potential for severe storms and flooding concerns over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 A mid to upper level trough currently resides over Intermountain West moving more into the Rockies. The FA is sitting under southwest winds on the leading edge of the trough base. A surface low is currently working its way across parts of the combined Panhandles with northerly and light surface winds across the NW half or so of the FA as of this writing. The center of the low appears to be near Beaver County as Slapout winds are southerly around 20 mph, light winds at Beaver, and north winds around 15 mph in Liberal, KS as of this writing. Models have not handled this feature very well this morning with much of the TX Panhandle supposed to be having all westerly winds by now. Models have been handling the dewpoints pretty well. Much of the southwest TX Panhandle had their dewpoints dip into the lower 20s already, while the E TX Panhandle is sitting with dewpoints in the 60s and southerly winds. This will change going into the afternoon with all of the TX Panhandles seeing winds shift westerly behind a Pacific front. This front/surface trough will move east bringing in much drier air for the rest of the TX Panhandle as well. The OK Panhandle may stay behind a stalled front which will push south as a cold front overnight. For today, the northwest TX Panhandle which has been seeing some northerly winds is just now starting to see winds switch back to the west and should stay for a bit this afternoon before the cold front pushes south returning winds to the north. Critical fire weather conditions may still exist this afternoon as a Pacific front pushes the higher dewpoints in the eastern Panhandles out of the area. RH values are still expected to drop into the teens, especially across the east where afternoon temperatures are reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold front tonight will not have very strong winds or even that strong of a cold air mass. However, as winds drop off into tomorrow morning under clear skies, radiational cooling is expected to take place dropping a good the area in the west to northwestern combined Panhandles below freezing with central area potentially seeing frost. For tomorrow, light winds will turn around the clock as a surface high works across the area. Winds should return to the south and pick up only slightly, may 10-15 mph tops. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the in the lower 60s to the north and mid to upper 60s across the southern FA. Tomorrow night, lows should not drop as much as tonight with winds staying around 10 mph or so, enough to keep some warmer air aloft mixed. Having a southerly component to the winds will help as well. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Our active weather pattern continues into the long term period. The next upper level trough prepares to pass through our CWA this weekend. Meanwhile, moisture advection begins on Friday and moisture retention should linger into next week. Then late into the extended, another upper level trough is expected to move in from the Pacific Northwest. Some breaks in the activity are anticipated, but multiple rounds of precipitation and temperature fluctuation could occur over the next several days, with most of the activity being centered over this weekend. Friday, moisture profiles are forecast to increase throughout the day. Dewpoints should rise into the 50's by the evening hours and some areas in the southern Texas Panhandle could see the lower 60's. Mid range model guidance suggest instability increases across the southwestern zones of our CWA. Thunderstorms are possible after dark on Friday and they could linger into Saturday morning. Storm motion will be from southwest to northeast, so storms will begin in the southern portions of our CWA but then move into the central and eastern zones. The northwest combined Panhandles are currently not as favored to receive precipitation as the rest of the area. If MUCAPE can exceed values above 1,000 J/kg, discrete to semi-discrete cells could form and become severe with damaging winds and hail as the primary hazards. Other environmental parameter like 0-6 bulk shear and lapse rate will be favorable for storms to become organized and last through the night, as long as the have enough instability to form in the first place. Saturday, a more concerning setup is present for potential severe storms. Again, destabilization will be key to see the formation of organized, discrete storms. Other environmental parameters will be favorable, and the forcing mechanism will arrive in the form of a shortwave trough that should depart ahead of the main upper level low. The timing is forecast to align in the evening, so there is some ample time before then to see instability increase. However, shower activity and cloud coverage is also expected to persist throughout the day, mainly in the eastern half of the region. Many members of the GEFS ensemble, including the operational GFS itself, suggest that a few hours of clearing could occur in the western half of our CWA, and allow for CAPE values to increase to the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range. This also includes the new 12Z run of the NAM12, which suggests that CAPE could increase beyond 1,500 J/kg. If these values cannot be realized, severe storms become far less likely, but a second round of thunderstorms should still form alongside the passing shortwave trough and transition east during the evening and night time hours. Excessive rainfall will also become a concern by Saturday as models suggest that these showers and thunderstorms could become efficient rain producers. With the notion of storms moving over the same areas starting Friday and potentially lasting till Monday, flooding may also become a hazard to contend with. Sunday and Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms could continue intermittently throughout each day mainly in the eastern combined Panhandles. The severe potential is expected to transition east of our area by this point, as the environment becomes overworked in our CWA. As we become positioned behind the main upper trough, high temperatures will decrease from 70's to 60's by Monday. Tuesday onward, the overall pattern become quiet until our next trough arrives. Average temperatures for this time of year are forecast, with no precipitation chances until our next front moves in. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Winds will be variable at around 5 kts tonight but turn southerly at 5-10 kts by the mid-afternoon. There is a chance for fog at all sites tonight, potentially freezing fog at KDHT and KGUY. Have opted to leave visibility restrictions out of the TAFs for now given low confidence, but amendments may be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 66 41 76 54 / 0 0 0 70 Beaver OK 63 39 76 50 / 0 0 0 60 Boise City OK 59 38 71 45 / 0 0 0 30 Borger TX 68 43 80 55 / 0 0 0 60 Boys Ranch TX 67 40 77 52 / 0 0 0 70 Canyon TX 67 35 75 53 / 0 0 0 70 Clarendon TX 65 41 73 55 / 0 0 10 70 Dalhart TX 61 35 72 47 / 0 0 0 50 Guymon OK 62 35 75 49 / 0 0 0 40 Hereford TX 68 37 75 53 / 0 0 0 70 Lipscomb TX 65 39 76 54 / 0 0 0 60 Pampa TX 65 42 75 54 / 0 0 0 60 Shamrock TX 66 40 73 54 / 0 0 10 70 Wellington TX 67 41 73 55 / 0 0 10 80 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001>004-006- 007-011-016. Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ005-008>010- 012-013-017-317. OK...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...52