FXUS64 KAMA 310506
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across the eastern Panhandles.
- Frost and Freeze Warnings have been issued for the western and
northern Panhandles tonight.
- Weather looks to become active this weekend with the potential
for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This will also
bring a low potential for severe storms and flooding concerns
over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
A mid to upper level trough currently resides over Intermountain
West moving more into the Rockies. The FA is sitting under
southwest winds on the leading edge of the trough base. A surface
low is currently working its way across parts of the combined
Panhandles with northerly and light surface winds across the
NW half or so of the FA as of this writing. The center of the low
appears to be near Beaver County as Slapout winds are southerly
around 20 mph, light winds at Beaver, and north winds around 15
mph in Liberal, KS as of this writing. Models have not handled
this feature very well this morning with much of the TX Panhandle
supposed to be having all westerly winds by now. Models have been
handling the dewpoints pretty well. Much of the southwest TX
Panhandle had their dewpoints dip into the lower 20s already,
while the E TX Panhandle is sitting with dewpoints in the 60s and
southerly winds. This will change going into the afternoon with
all of the TX Panhandles seeing winds shift westerly behind a
Pacific front. This front/surface trough will move east bringing
in much drier air for the rest of the TX Panhandle as well. The OK
Panhandle may stay behind a stalled front which will push south
as a cold front overnight.
For today, the northwest TX Panhandle which has been seeing some
northerly winds is just now starting to see winds switch back to
the west and should stay for a bit this afternoon before the cold
front pushes south returning winds to the north. Critical fire
weather conditions may still exist this afternoon as a Pacific
front pushes the higher dewpoints in the eastern Panhandles out of
the area. RH values are still expected to drop into the teens,
especially across the east where afternoon temperatures are
reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold front tonight will
not have very strong winds or even that strong of a cold air mass.
However, as winds drop off into tomorrow morning under clear
skies, radiational cooling is expected to take place dropping a
good the area in the west to northwestern combined Panhandles
below freezing with central area potentially seeing frost.
For tomorrow, light winds will turn around the clock as a surface
high works across the area. Winds should return to the south and
pick up only slightly, may 10-15 mph tops. Afternoon highs are
expected to be in the in the lower 60s to the north and mid to
upper 60s across the southern FA. Tomorrow night, lows should not
drop as much as tonight with winds staying around 10 mph or so,
enough to keep some warmer air aloft mixed. Having a southerly
component to the winds will help as well.
36
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Our active weather pattern continues into the long term period.
The next upper level trough prepares to pass through our CWA this
weekend. Meanwhile, moisture advection begins on Friday and
moisture retention should linger into next week. Then late into
the extended, another upper level trough is expected to move in
from the Pacific Northwest. Some breaks in the activity are
anticipated, but multiple rounds of precipitation and temperature
fluctuation could occur over the next several days, with most of
the activity being centered over this weekend.
Friday, moisture profiles are forecast to increase throughout the
day. Dewpoints should rise into the 50's by the evening hours and
some areas in the southern Texas Panhandle could see the lower
60's. Mid range model guidance suggest instability increases
across the southwestern zones of our CWA. Thunderstorms are
possible after dark on Friday and they could linger into Saturday
morning. Storm motion will be from southwest to northeast, so
storms will begin in the southern portions of our CWA but then
move into the central and eastern zones. The northwest combined
Panhandles are currently not as favored to receive precipitation
as the rest of the area. If MUCAPE can exceed values above 1,000
J/kg, discrete to semi-discrete cells could form and become
severe with damaging winds and hail as the primary hazards. Other
environmental parameter like 0-6 bulk shear and lapse rate will be
favorable for storms to become organized and last through the
night, as long as the have enough instability to form in the
first place.
Saturday, a more concerning setup is present for potential severe
storms. Again, destabilization will be key to see the formation
of organized, discrete storms. Other environmental parameters
will be favorable, and the forcing mechanism will arrive in the
form of a shortwave trough that should depart ahead of the main
upper level low. The timing is forecast to align in the evening,
so there is some ample time before then to see instability
increase. However, shower activity and cloud coverage is also
expected to persist throughout the day, mainly in the eastern half
of the region. Many members of the GEFS ensemble, including the
operational GFS itself, suggest that a few hours of clearing could
occur in the western half of our CWA, and allow for CAPE values
to increase to the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range. This also includes
the new 12Z run of the NAM12, which suggests that CAPE could
increase beyond 1,500 J/kg. If these values cannot be realized,
severe storms become far less likely, but a second round of
thunderstorms should still form alongside the passing shortwave trough
and transition east during the evening and night time hours.
Excessive rainfall will also become a concern by Saturday as
models suggest that these showers and thunderstorms could become
efficient rain producers. With the notion of storms moving over
the same areas starting Friday and potentially lasting till
Monday, flooding may also become a hazard to contend with.
Sunday and Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms could
continue intermittently throughout each day mainly in the eastern
combined Panhandles. The severe potential is expected to
transition east of our area by this point, as the environment
becomes overworked in our CWA. As we become positioned behind the
main upper trough, high temperatures will decrease from 70's to
60's by Monday.
Tuesday onward, the overall pattern become quiet until our next
trough arrives. Average temperatures for this time of year are
forecast, with no precipitation chances until our next front
moves in.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Winds will be variable at around 5 kts tonight but turn southerly
at 5-10 kts by the mid-afternoon. There is a chance for fog at
all sites tonight, potentially freezing fog at KDHT and KGUY. Have
opted to leave visibility restrictions out of the TAFs for now
given low confidence, but amendments may be needed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 66 41 76 54 / 0 0 0 70
Beaver OK 63 39 76 50 / 0 0 0 60
Boise City OK 59 38 71 45 / 0 0 0 30
Borger TX 68 43 80 55 / 0 0 0 60
Boys Ranch TX 67 40 77 52 / 0 0 0 70
Canyon TX 67 35 75 53 / 0 0 0 70
Clarendon TX 65 41 73 55 / 0 0 10 70
Dalhart TX 61 35 72 47 / 0 0 0 50
Guymon OK 62 35 75 49 / 0 0 0 40
Hereford TX 68 37 75 53 / 0 0 0 70
Lipscomb TX 65 39 76 54 / 0 0 0 60
Pampa TX 65 42 75 54 / 0 0 0 60
Shamrock TX 66 40 73 54 / 0 0 10 70
Wellington TX 67 41 73 55 / 0 0 10 80
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001>004-006-
007-011-016.
Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ005-008>010-
012-013-017-317.
OK...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52