FXUS64 KAMA 282309 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 609 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 - Severe thunderstorm chances continue this evening, tomorrow, and Wednesday for portions of the Panhandles. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any severe storms. - Thunderstorm chances continue each day through this upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Early this afternoon, drier conditions have moved in over the Panhandles due to westerly downslope winds. The potential is low, but there could be a few showers or storms that reach the southeastern Texas Panhandle this evening. In fact, if a storm is able to move into the CWA, the storms could become severe. The potential is quite low in that scenario unfolding as there is a lot of dry air at the surface, but model soundings do indicate quite a bit of elevated CAPE so cannot rule out large hail should a storm move in over the area. A cold front will move south over the CWA tonight into tomorrow morning. The front should be through the entire area by late Tuesday morning and northerly winds in its wake could be breezy to gusty with gusts upwards of 40 mph if not a bit higher. The northerly winds will also usher in cooler air and high temperatures for Tuesday have a high chance of remaining below 70 degrees. With troughing to the west of the CWA tomorrow, upper level disturbances should traverse over the High Plains tomorrow into tomorrow night, providing ample lift for thunderstorms should enough moisture be in place. In fact, model guidance is hinting that enough moisture may move in in the mid levels to be able to generate thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Even though this is definitely not a typical severe thunderstorm set up, especially with the Panhandles being behind a cold front, there is some potential for a few severe thunderstorms on Tuesday night. Model soundings do indicate there could be plenty of elevated CAPE to work with (NAM soundings show over 2000 J/kg of elevated CAPE) which would lead to severe storms capable of producing large hail. Even if a severe storm does not materialize, there is still a high chance in rain occurring for much of the central and east tomorrow night. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 A low pressure system will traverse eastward over the southern High Plains on Wednesday. There may still be some ongoing showers or thunderstorms across the central or east to start the day but that activity should clear out during the morning hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast for later in the day on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time, but a few storms could become strong with hail and gusty winds. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be around average due to cloud cover and the Panhandles will still be in the wake of the cold frontal passage from Tuesday. The upper level pattern will continue to remain active through next weekend as systems form low pressure systems over the western US. Gulf of America moisture should stream northwards during this time frame which will aid in leading to daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front is forecast to propel southwards over the Plains on Thursday and should clear the Panhandles by early Friday morning. This pattern along with the front will keep temperatures near to below average late this week into next weekend. Muscha && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 VFR conditions persist across all the terminals through the overnight hours ahead of a cold frontal passage. There is currently gusty winds from the SW at KDHT and KGUY ahead of the front. Once the front passes during the early morning hours these will shift to the north and see stronger gusts. KAMA being further south will not see frontal passage til the mid morning hours showing the same north wind shift and gusts. Lower clouds have a high chance of building in behind the front and may lead to MVFR conditions. This is most likely at KAMA as it has higher moisture amounts for the low deck to form from. This same moisture may lead to rain showers and thunderstorms in the KAMA area during the evening which is currently just outside this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 47 63 48 73 / 10 30 80 70 Beaver OK 44 65 47 74 / 10 30 60 70 Boise City OK 39 63 40 71 / 0 10 30 70 Borger TX 48 66 50 76 / 10 30 80 70 Boys Ranch TX 46 64 47 73 / 10 20 70 70 Canyon TX 47 64 48 72 / 10 30 80 70 Clarendon TX 54 66 51 73 / 30 50 90 80 Dalhart TX 40 63 41 71 / 0 10 50 60 Guymon OK 41 64 44 72 / 0 20 50 70 Hereford TX 47 65 47 73 / 10 30 80 70 Lipscomb TX 49 63 49 73 / 20 40 80 70 Pampa TX 49 62 49 72 / 20 30 80 70 Shamrock TX 54 66 52 73 / 40 60 90 80 Wellington TX 56 68 53 73 / 50 70 100 80 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...98