FXUS61 KBGM 111752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1252 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Lake effect showers will stream into the Twin Tiers off of Lake
Ontario and Erie into the overnight hours. High pressure builds
in late tonight, cutting off the lake effect showers and
bringing warmer, dry conditions for Tuesday. Another cold front
comes through Wednesday with additional chances for lake effect
snow showers. High pressure and warmer temperatures build into
the region later in the week.


1230 PM Update...

Adjusted PoPs through the overnight hours based on the latest
high res guidance available. The goal was to try and pin down
the areas with the best chance for snow bands to move through.
The current NW flow will slowly shift westerly as a high moves
eastward south of our CWA, with all snow diminishing by the
early morning hours.

10AM Update...

The Winter Storm Warning and Advisories were cancelled as snow
has moved out of the region. The Winter Weather Advisory for
Onondaga, Madison and Oneida remains in effect until 7PM
tonight as lake effect showers have started to stream across
this region. PoPs and QPF were updated based on the latest high-
res model guidance, but much of the original forecast remains
the same. Higher elevations of the Tug Hill and south of the
Mohawk Valley could see an additional 2 inches of snow, with the
surrounding, low lying areas getting up to an inch.
Temperatures have climbed above freezing for most of the area,
so if snow does fall, it is not expected to stick. Temperatures
will fall below freezing across the area late this afternoon,
allowing some accumulation to take place. Lake effect showers
should slide north and taper off during the overnight hours as
high pressure works its way in from the west and turns the flow
more SWerly.

630 AM Update...

With the sunrise update, added the mention of some drizzle and
freezing drizzle till mid morning. Temperatures around freezing
expected for the next few hours. Also, given hourly observations
and the HRRR soundings show this potential. Previous discussion

Still one last period of snow this morning exiting the region
where F-Gen forcing is still favorable coupled with the
moisture, so some additional accumulations are expected into the
mid morning hours. Will leave advisory headlines up for now in
terms of winter weather. The flood watch was cancelled given the
changeover to snow.

After this last period of snow passes through additional snow
showers due to lake effect are likely to form downstream on Lake
Ontario resulting in additional light accumulations. The
advisory continues here longer with a snow squall or two not
out of the question given some instability this afternoon.
Coverage will become more spotty given the amount of mid and
upper level dry air moving in. Temperatures look steady in the
30's with the cold air advection as well. Modeled soundings
still show the potential for some 25-35 mph gusts to be
transported to the surface as well today.

Conditions slowly clear out later today and tonight coupled with
a decrease in winds as the surface low moves further away from
the region. A few locations that see the most clearing and have
a more pronounced snow cover should end up several degrees
cooler than the national model blend overnight for lows with
values generally in the 20's. A return to southwest flow ahead
of the next cold front Tuesday with the potential for some
sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures.



A cold front pushes south through the area Tuesday night,
bringing NW flow and cold air back into the region. Limited
moisture will bring some light snow to cny Tuesday night. A weak
band off of Lake Erie will form late as 850mb temps drop to
-10 to -15C. This will extend into CNY behind the front. A lake
 effect band of snow off of Lake Ontario will extend into the
 Tug Wednesday morning then drop south into Oneida County
 midday. The current timing has this continuing to drop south
 into the Syracuse metro for the aftn/eve commute. Snow rates
 could be an inch an hour. Winds shift to the NNW pushing the
 band further southwest into the eastern Finger Lakes in the
 evening. The snow dies during the overnight. An advisory may be
 needed for the lake effect snow Wednesday into Wednesday
 evening for the typical counties of Onondaga, Oneida, Madison.
 Model soundings show saturation reaching the DGZ so any snow
 showers should have some nice flakes allowing for at least 1-3
 inches of snow to fall over portions of Onondaga, Madison and
 Oneida county. Duration may be the issue for higher amounts and
 an advisory. NEPA will be mainly dry and mostly cloudy.

Tuesday night lows will be in the 20s. Wednesday highs in the
30s. Lows Wednesday night mostly in the upper teens to lower

Thursday there will be increasing sunshine as high pressure
starts to build in with drier air. Highs mostly in the 30s.


310 AM update...

A large area of high pressure over the mid Atlantic states will
be in control across the area through this period. Consistent
westerly flow ebbing between WNW and WSW will advect in a much
warmer airmass from the central US for the end of the week
through the weekend. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected with highs mostly in the 40s and lows in the 20s.


Lake effect snow showers are streaming across the area from NW
to SE. All terminals except for ELM should see MVFR ceilings
through the afternoon hours. As the winds shift more westerly
by the evening, clouds decks at AVP/BGM/ITH will lift to VFR.

SYR and RME will see impacts from lake effect snow showers into
the overnight hours. Prevailing MVFR with Tempo IFR conditions
will be possible at these terminals as the showers move in and
out of the terminal area. Timing and location are hard to pin
down with these type of showers so a broad 4hr Tempo this
afternoon should capture the periodic IFR conditions. RME may
see another round of IFR conditions later tonight as the winds
shift more westerly and a diffuse band of snow swings through
the area.

Winds gusting to 30kts will be possible at RME and SYR this
afternoon. These should begin to weaken later this evening.


Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.


NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-