FXUS61 KBGM 080755 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 355 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 PM Update... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 132 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Westerly flow will allow lake effect snow showers to continue today over north central NY. A few additional showers may affect parts of Central New York on Monday, followed by dry weather and warming temperatures for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 345 AM Update... Upper level low rotates north of our region throughout the day keeping westerly flow in place as well as wrap around moisture. As a result lake enhanced showers are expected through early Sunday afternoon, mainly over the northern portion of our area. Wind direction will shift WSW in the afternoon lifting these showers slightly north of our region. Although some lingering showers may cycle back into northern Oneida this evening and overnight as wind direction shifts back west. Otherwise cooler temperates stick around today with forecasted highs in the low to mid 60s across the region. Winds will gradually increase today with gusts up to 20 kts in the afternoon. Temperatures overnight will range in the low to mid 40s across most of the region with lighter winds. The western finger lakes region will see temperatures in the low 50s. Upper level trough pattern remains over our region with a shortwave arriving on Monday. There will be just enough moisture available to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Model guidance has this short wave tracking over the Great Lakes picking up more moisture along with it. Therefore showers that occur on Monday will be lake enhanced in nature. Showers will mostly occupy central NY, but a few showers may make it into the twin tiers. Model guidance continues to show limited instability and weak low level lapse rates, but shear values remain favorable. Given these conditions there is potential for some stronger thunderstorms to develop over central NY late tomorrow afternoon/early evening. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 300 AM Update... An upper-level trough with an embedded shortwave will continue to swing through the region Monday night. Most model guidance is showing showers continuing into Monday night, so PoPs for late Monday evening were a blend of the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and NBM guidance. While quite limited, there will be some instability and shear, so isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Showers quickly dissipate during the late overnight hours as high pressure builds into the region with dry conditions then lasting through the rest of the short term period. Temperatures Monday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. More widespread 70s are expected for Tuesday, though some may still struggle to get out of the 60s. Clear skies on Tuesday night will allow for good raditional cooling, so temps will fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 300 AM Update... A ridge of high pressure will be in control throughout the long term period resulting in warm, dry conditions throughout the week. This high pressure will help keep showers well south of the region. Temperatures will be above average into the start of the weekend. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with Thursday and Friday being the warmer days. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and low 60s. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico could amplify the ridge, increasing heights and result in warmer conditions. For now, this update followed NBM guidance. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditons are expected throughout the entire period at ELM/BGM/AVP. Ceilings have been bouncing between MVFR and VFR at ITH, therefore included a tempo to cover this. Otherwise SYR and RME will be impacted by lake effect rain showers tonight. The shift to WSW winds will bring a broken band of rain showers moving across SYR and RME starting after 06z until around sunrise. Restrictions are expected to bounce in and out of MVFR as showers and lower clouds stream over the terminals. VFR conditions expected starting in the morning through the rest of the TAF period with gusty afternoon winds between 20-25kts. .Outlook... Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. Monday...A few showers possible Monday across Central NY with minor restrictions possible. Tuesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...ES SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...AJG/BTL AVIATION...ES/JTC