FXUS64 KBMX 111127 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 527 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM CST MON DEC 11 2023 Quiet weather for the next 2 days as high pressure builds in. Winds will generally be light with plenty of sun. Highs today will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tonight we will have light winds at best and plenty of radiational cooling across the region. Went a couple of degrees lower than guidance to account for this, especially in the north. While there is an official low forecast of 22 for Gadsden tonight, there is a 40 to 50 percent chance that the temperature is below 22 and even a 5 percent chance we get into the upper teens. The coldest areas will be cooler microclimates in the northeast. So we may need to adjust downward as new model solutions come in. We will also need to monitor for some isolated river/lake fog as well, but I do not have enough confidence to include in this update. After the cold start Tuesday morning, we will climb into the middle to upper 50s. Again there will be plenty of sun during the day. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 258 AM CST MON DEC 11 2023 High pressure persists across the Southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Friday. We'll see gradual warming as the air mass becomes more moderated with drier northerly to northeasterly flow. Our next system approaches the region by the end of the week and could move through over the weekend. A trough is expected to deepen through the Plains and move into the Gulf States at some point. However, guidance continues to struggle with the evolution and timing of the system, so rain chances remain at 20-40% Saturday and Sunday. It's unlikely that the entire weekend is a washout, but defining which day the rain moves in when it will move out will be something that needs to be worked out as models come into better agreement in the coming days. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST MON DEC 11 2023 VFR conditions for this cycle. Will need to monitor around 10 to 12z Tuesday for any river fog that may impact TAF sites. Confidence is too low to include at this time, since the airmass itself will be very dry. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure builds into the area today and persists through much of the week. Min RHs Monday through Thursday will be 35-40%. Rain free conditions through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 50 22 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 51 26 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 50 29 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 55 30 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 53 28 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 52 31 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 55 31 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...16