FXUS65 KBOU 120547 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1147 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds up to 50 mph from high based-showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. - Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues Thursday and Friday. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible over the northeast plains Friday and Saturday. - Warming trend through Sunday with the warmest temperatures this weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already formed over the higher terrain. They will spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours. Moisture isn't that great with dew points in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the Front Range. MLCAPE stays under 700 J/kg and shear will be weak, so we are not expecting any organized thunderstorm activity. Because of the large temperature/dew point spread (inverted V sounding), gusty outflow winds will be the main threat. A couple severe gusts will be possible, but most of the gusts will be under 50 mph. The showers and storms come to an end by early to mid evening as the air stabilizes. Much of the same is in store for Thursday with weak ridging overhead leading to warm temperatures, weak winds aloft (low shear), and limited moisture. South-southeast winds develop over Nebraska and Kansas Thursday. These winds creep into eastern Colorado increasing low level moisture and shear. It's this area that will be more favorable for severe thunderstorms with MLCAPE 1500 J/kg. Farther west for much of the area, weaker high based showers and thunderstorms are expected again with gusty outflow winds to 50 mph. On Friday, the ridging flattens some, increasing the flow aloft. Westerly flow aloft increases over the western half of Colorado bringing drier air to the mountains. Over the eastern half of Colorado, southeast winds advance westward to roughly the I-25 corridor by early afternoon, Dew points over the eastern plains reach the 50s leading to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Southeast winds under an increasing west flow aloft should result in enough shear for supercell thunderstorms. This unstable airmass will likely stay east of the I-25 corridor. However, there looks to be enough moisture for weak high-based showers and thunderstorms again. Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across northeast Colorado. For the weekend, ridging aloft intensifies over the Central and Southern Rockies. Highs are expected to warm into the 90s over northeast Colorado. Across most of the area, limited moisture and instability combined with warming aloft will result in dry conditions or very weak convection. Easterly winds will hold moisture over far eastern/northeastern Colorado with MLCAPE of 2000- 3000 J/kg. This will lead to a severe weather threat where the higher dew points (greater than 50) reside. The ridge slides off to the east next week, as an upper level trough pushes inland from the Pacific. Highs temperatures cool into the 80s across northeast Colorado by Tuesday. Still a little too early to tell how much moisture will be in place. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough should keep drier air over the region. The best moisture will continue to be over the eastern plains at times when we see surges of easterly winds. As far as PoPs go, will have 10-30 across the area each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1137 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday. Drainage winds in the morning will give way to light winds through the mid to late morning and into the afternoon. Showers and storms will form over the higher terrain and will move towards the terminals between 20-00Z. The primary concern with these storms will be wind gusts up to 40 knots. These storms could also have small hail and may bring ceilings down to 5,000-7,000 feet. During the evening, moderate south to southeast winds will form and then will give way to drainage. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meier AVIATION...Danielson