FXUS61 KBOX 310125
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
925 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures are expected Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Still unseasonably warm and quite breezy
on Friday with near record high temperatures well into the 70s.
High temperatures fall back into the 50s behind a cold front for the
weekend. Temperatures are quite uncertain for the first half of
next week...but they may start off cool on Monday before
unseasonable warmth potentially returns by the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...

* Dry and mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s

Previous forecast remains on track. Center of the upper level
ridge to our south will result in dry and mild weather tonight.
Southwest surface winds should confine any low clouds/fog
patches towards the Cape and Islands. Otherwise...just some
scattered high level cloudiness streaming into our region on the
northern edge of the upper level ridge. Southwest flow will
result in unseasonably mild overnight low temps mainly in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The ridge axis shifts east on Thursday and SW flow prevails, which
will keep temperatures from cooling much at all. Near-record to
record temperatures are possible tomorrow, especially in the CT and
Merrimack Valleys, which are projected to hit over 80 degrees. At
last check, 925 mb temperatures are sitting around +19C across
various deterministic models for Thursday into Thursday night.
Dewpoints are expected to remain in the 50s, which will also keep
lows from getting below the mid 50s. Along the South Coast, lows may
only get to the low 60s. Rain chances Friday morning continue to
diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points...

* Unseasonably warm & quite breezy Fri with near record highs
* Dry but cooler/seasonable temps return this weekend
* A round of scattered showers possible sometime Mon and/or Tue
* Unseasonable warmth may return briefly by the middle of next week

Details...

Friday...

A shortwave/cold front will cross the region Fri morning. This front
is moisture starved...so nothing more than a few brief spot showers
if anything. Otherwise...it will take sometime for the cooler air to
work in from the west. This coupled with a very mild start and
plenty of sunshine...should see highs reach well into the 70s.
In fact...we may challenge a few record highs again too. It
will also be quite breezy as the atmosphere will be well
mixed...so expect westerly wind gusts of 25-30 mph with a few
gusts up to 35 mph possible.

This Weekend...

Cooler/seasonable temps will return this weekend behind Friday/s
cold front. Dry weather with high temps mainly in the 50s are on tap
for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. It should
be chilly at night...particularly Sat night when many outlying
locations will drop well down into the 20s with ideal radiational
cooling conditions expected.

Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday...

Forecast confidence drops during the first half of the next work
week. Anomalous ridging will build back across the southeast and
into parts of the mid-Atlantic. At the same time...a backdoor front
may try to temporarily work southward. This may result in a chilly
day for parts of the region Mon...but that will depend upon where
this backdoor front sets up. There also might be a round of
scattered showers sometime Mon and/or Tue along this frontal
boundary....but not expecting a significant rainfall event. The
guidance does appear to want to move this boundary back north of our
region as a warm front by Tue or Wed...but timing details are rather
uncertain. If this occurs...well above normal high temps well into
the 70s may briefly return by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR except for some MVFR-IFR conditions in low clouds across
parts of the Cape and Islands. However...there are some signs
that these low clouds could scour out after midnight in those
locations too. SSW winds around 5-10 kt.

Thursday and Thursday night-: High confidence.

VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: SW winds at 10 kt to 15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

Thursday: Seas decrease to 2-3 ft with continued SW winds at 15-20
kt. A few gusts just below 20 kt also possible.

Thursday Night: Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to
return with seas up to 7 ft in the outer waters possible. Winds
continue to be from the SW but increase to 25 kt with gusts up to 30
kt.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt.
Local rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in
continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. In
fact...our biggest concern right now is Friday when westerly
winds may gust to between 25 and 30 mph with even a few gusts up
to 35 mph! We will continue to coordinate Fire Weather products
with our state partners.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st

BOS: 81F (1946)
ORH: 79F (1946)
PVD: 83F (1946)
BDL: 82F (1946)

Maximum Record High Temperatures: November 1st

BOS: 77F (1974)
ORH: 73F (2003)
PVD: 78F (1974)
BDL: 81F (1974)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Frank/Hrencecin/KP
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin
MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin
FIRE WEATHER...Frank
CLIMATE...Dooley