FXUS64 KBRO 080506 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
The big story currently for the short term forecast period the
multiple hazards along the beaches. With High Surf Advisory and High
Risk of Rip Currents in effect until tomorrow night. In addition, a
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 1 AM CDT Sunday. This is
all a result of an area of low pressure interacting with a weak
frontal boundary.
As such, the northerly to northeasterly winds will continue through
Sunday night with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. This will in turn
drive up the wave heights to around 6 to 10 feet over the Gulf
waters. With the elevated seas bringing the beach hazards along with
the tide cycle as well, with the timing of the high tide in
consideration for the Coastal Flood Advisory. The elevated seas are
the main driving force behind the need for the High Risk of Rip
Currents and the High Surf Advisory along the Lower Texas Coast.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the
short term forecast period, with high PoPs expected towards the end
of the forecast period. Most shower activity is expected to be
limited during the forecast period to the coastal regions and based
with the diurnal sea breeze being the main factor aiding in the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Considering the high
values of PWATs in the model guidance, any showers and thunderstorms
that develop could bring heavy rainfall at times.
As for the temperatures, the high temperatures tomorrow are expected
to be cooler than normal thanks to the high amount of cloud
coverage. As a result of this, the high temperatures for tomorrow
are expected to be mostly in the upper 80s. However, the low
temperatures are expected to be just slightly cooler, with most of
the region in the 70s, but a few places could get into the upper
60s.
Lastly, look for updates in regards for potential tropical impacts
in the long term section of the Area Forecast Discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
The bulk of the long-term forecast remains focused on potential
tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico, with NHC
currently riding a medium 50 percent chance of development through
48 hours and high 70 percent chance of development through 7
days. Expect rain chances to increase, especially along the coast,
Monday into Tuesday as the potential system approaches the lower
Texas coast. Most model guidance slings the system across our
coastal waters towards the northwestern Gulf Coast Wednesday into
Thursday, with increased subsidence and drier air likely cutting
precipitation chances down locally into the weekend behind the
system. Expect below normal temperatures to drop a few more
degrees into mid-week with thicker cloud cover and increased
rainfall before warming above normal late week into the weekend.
NBM seems to have a pretty good initial look at POPs and temps
through mid-week, potentially not warm enough or dry enough for
the back end of the forecast period. With confidence on the
tropical side still a little lower, will hold off from any changes
beyond Day 4. Current wind forecasts offshore and along the coast
may differ quite a bit over the next couple of days for Tuesday
and Wednesday, with NBM likely far too low at this time.
WPC has issued a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall
across all or portions of the CWA Monday through Wednesday night,
generally marginal west to slight east through Tuesday night, with
marginal remaining along the coast Wednesday. Again, as confidence
increases in tropical development and location, QPF totals may
also widely differ from forecast to forecast. Current QPF totals
through Day 5 show about a tenth to one-half inch where rainfall
is needed the most for any reservoir benefits and a sharp gradient
from 1-2 inches near MFE to 5-7 inches near BRO and SPI. If the
system works further offshore, the gradient shifts further east as
well.
At the very least, a well-saturated mid to lower valley and lower
Texas Coast may need a Flash Flood Watch and all current beach to
marine threats continuing or increasing until winds turn more
offshore. Please stay tuned for the latest updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. A
TEMPO has been inserted for Sunday for the potential for showers
during the afternoon hours for BRO and HRL.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Tonight through Sunday Night...The enhanced pressure gradient is
generating moderate to strong northerly to northeasterly winds and
seas slightly under 7 feet. However, winds and seas are expected to
continue to increase through Sunday night likely to result in a need
for a continuation of the Small Craft Advisory that is currently in
place. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to persist through the period as well and may contain heavy rainfall
as well. Showers and thunderstorms are also likely to produce
locally elevated winds and seas as well.
Monday through Saturday...The focus of the marine forecast through
the long term period will remain on potential tropical development
across the western Gulf of Mexico into mid to late week. The
National Hurricane Center currently has a medium 50 percent chance
of development through 48 hours and high 70 percent chance of
development through 7 days. Dangerous marine conditions are
expected Monday through Wednesday, before improving into the
weekend. Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts from NWS
Brownsville and the National Hurricane Center.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 75 85 75 83 / 40 30 60 80
HARLINGEN 72 87 73 84 / 20 20 50 70
MCALLEN 74 90 73 87 / 0 10 40 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 89 71 86 / 0 0 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 79 84 / 40 40 50 80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 84 74 84 / 40 30 50 80
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
&&
$$