FXUS61 KBTV 271430 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1030 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of surface high pressure will rule the pattern across the Northeast through mid week, bringing warmer and drier weather. Surface and upper level ridges will break down towards the end of the week, and shower chances will increase as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes region, crossing our forecast area on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1029 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast is in good shape for a pleasant and warm late spring day across the area. Satellite imagery showing high cirrus clouds to our south and west. This high cloud shield will make gradual progression north and east through the day today, but won't be thick enough to prevent solar heating. Still on track to see high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s today. As temps warm into the afternoon, expect to again see the development of some fair weather cumulus clouds over higher terrain. An isolated shower or two over the mountains can't be ruled out this afternoon, but chances are under 30% over mountains and near 0 for any rain in the valleys today. Previous discussion follows... Surface and upper level ridges building over the region will keep our weather quiet and our temperatures warm for today through Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected today, have gone above guidance for temperatures and below guidance for dewpoints as atmosphere is expected to dry out. Maximum temperatures today will range through the 70s. Minimum temperatures overnight will then drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warm air advection will pick up on Wednesday, and we will have similar temperatures to Tuesday. Models indicate small chance for showers Wednesday afternoon in Northern New York ahead of next approaching system. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Tuesday...A cutoff upper level low will push east from the Great Lakes and rejoin the circulation over the region on Thursday into Friday. A period of rain will occur Wednesday night as the occluding surface low associated with this cutoff low passes by to the north. Some model guidance tries to develop a secondary low off the New England coast during the day Thursday, notably the GFS and many of its ensembles. If the secondary low does not develop, there will likley be showers due to stronger forcing with the primary low and potential convection from the subsequent cold frontal passage. If the secondary low develops off the coast, it will take most of the energy from the primary low and most of the rain should remain to the south. There would also be a less of a defined front and cooler conditions, so convection would be unlikely. After this first system moves out, Friday should be relatively dry, though a large scale trough will be moving in from the west, and a few light showers cannot be ruled out. Temperatures should be relatively seasonable, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Tuesday...As the cutoff low rejoins the circulation, it will deepen the incoming trough and invigorate a shortwave pivoting around it. A potent surface low looks to develop with this shortwave over Mid- Atlantic and move up into the region as another nor'easter on Saturday and Saturday night. While there is variation in the forecast storm track, ensemble means of minimum sea level pressure indicate the current most likely track of the center of the low is over southern New England and into Maine, yet another storm that may take an ideal snow track if it was winter. The difference with this system compared to the one at the end of last week as that it will be much faster moving, and should be mostly out of the region less than 24 hours after it enters, though lingering clouds and drizzle are possible on Sunday. Precipitation will therefore be less, with GEFS, EPS and CAN ensemble probabilities of more than an inch of rain around and under 10 percent. Behind this low, the large scale troughing looks to remain for the rest of the weekend before ridging gradually builds in for next week. Cooler temperatures aloft and the potential for another shortwave passage keep shower chances into Monday, though any of those would likely be light and have less areal coverage. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and light and variable winds will continue through the TAF period. Overnight BR/FG formation will be possible once again tonight, though likely only MVFR conditions expected. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Duell/Neiles SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Neiles