FXUS62 KCAE 131817
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure residing over the region will result in mostly
clear skies along with a warming trend through Monday. The passage
of a cold front Monday into Tuesday will usher in the coldest and
driest air mass of the season thus far with below normal
temperatures returning for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Clear and calm

An upper level trough continues to dig into the eastern US
today as a weak shortwave slides through the southern
Appalachians. The associated cold front will approach the
forecast area in the near term. Surface winds will strengthen a
bit today ahead of the front, with associated warm advection
and increasing dew points into the mid-upper 50's. PWAT's will
remain below 0.75" despite the increase in moisture, which will
prevent precip. Thanks to the aforementioned warm advection,
afternoon high temps will climb into the mid-80's and overnight
lows will be in the 60's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Strong dry cold front will move through the area early this week.
- Below normal temperatures and much drier air settle into the area
  Tuesday.

The main story for the current forecast period will be early in the
week as a series of fronts cross the area and a much more fall-like
airmass settles into the region. After another warm day Monday, high
pressure will start to build south from Canada with troughing aloft.
The trough is progged to deepen before it swings through the area.
PWATS will start out around 0.5" as the first boundary moves
through. Unlikely to see any precip with this first front. Highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid 40s. Some westerly
breeziness possible along a tight pressure gradient, but generally
only 10-15 mph with a few higher gusts. Modest increase in moisture
to around 0.75" then occurs Tuesday ahead of the reinforcing frontal
boundary. Most model solutions are pessimistic with any precip along
or ahead of the front, but the GEFS mean shows 40-60% chances of
measurable precip (>=0.01") across the northeast portion of the
forecast area. The NBM is not so bullish, so will keep
mentionable PoPs out of the forecast due to low confidence at
this time. Strongest cold air advection doesn't show up until
late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additionally, dry air will pour
into the region with PWAT values tanking below 0.5" as the upper
trough moves through the our north. Westerly 850mb winds and
daytime downsloping will result in cooler temperatures compared
to Monday, with highs in the low 70s. Some continued mixing
Tuesday night along with cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Temperatures well below normal mid to late week. Cold, dry
  air mass in place during the period with cool days and chilly
  nights.

Upper trough moves east around midweek with strong cold high
pressure advecting into the area from the northwest. The airmass
will be anomalously dry, with PW values 30-40% of normal.
Northwest flow aloft coupled with the lower level CAA will
ensure below normal temperatures, as much as 10-15 degrees below
normal, much of this week. Some warming may occur toward the
weekend as upper level flow turns more zonal or perhaps takes on
slight ridging, but temperatures will still remain 5 to 10
degrees below normal. This translates to highs in the mid 60s
Wednesday and Thursday, then upper 60s to low 70s Friday and
Saturday. Overnight lows generally in the 40s with a few areas
in the upper 30s Thursday and Friday, then slightly warmer this
weekend. The forecast remains dry into the upcoming weekend as
well with light northwest to northeast winds and plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS likely Monday morning.

An approaching cold front will strengthen southwest flow
throughout the day today at all TAF sites. Expect winds from 8
to 12 kts with gusts up to 18 kts. Otherwise clear skies through
the day and overnight. Another round of morning river fog is
possible at AGS which could see some brief vsby restrictions as
a result. Low level wind shear is expected Monday morning around
09Z until 13-15Z when the surface winds pick up. It will be
breezy behind the front as winds shift from SW to W/NW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely
through the extended.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$