FXUS62 KCAE 111801 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 101 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Drier with cooler temperatures to start the week before moderating temps by mid to late week as high pressure builds over the eastern seaboard. The next chance of rain is not expected until next weekend when a system emerges from the Gulf of Mexico. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper air analysis shows that the region is currently under the base of an upper trough. This trough is expected to slide offshore through the overnight hours. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds over the region from the west. As a result, skies should remain clear through the overnight hours and winds are expected to be calm light to calm. This should lead to efficient radiational cooling with temperatures several degrees below normal. Lows overnight are likely to be in the mid 20s to near 30. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Weather pattern through the short term lends itself to a cool and dry forecast period. Surface ridging will reside across the region on Tuesday, then Wednesday sees another re-enforcing dry cold front moving into the region. With pwat values below a half an inch, the chance for any kind of rain with the front is basically zero. Skies mostly sunny on Tuesday, with a few cirrus possible each day. Temperatures generally below normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thursday into the weekend, upper ridge strengthens across the Mississippi Valley Region of the middle of the country in response to an upper low moving out of the southwestern U.S. This keeps the upper flow across our area out of the northwest, and generally dry. At the surface, cold and continued dry high pressure will still be in control, which will generally limit any moderation of temperatures and keep the weather dry through the of the week. Changes on tap through the weekend though. As the upper low moving out of the southwestern U.S tracks across the southern Plains, a deepening low across the northern Plains will be digging southward into Sunday. These two lows are forecast to merge Saturday, then move move eastward across the Gulf Coast States on Sunday. At the surface, and area of low pressure will develop and move eastward across the Region. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the surface low will be, and on where the track of this low will end up going. The GFS solution is further north than the ECMWF/Canadian solutions, with the GFS track going across the southeastern U.S. and up the east coast. Meanwhile the ECMWF/Canadian solutions keeps the track further south in the Gulf and moves it across Florida, the tracks the low further off the Atlantic coast as it moves northward. The track of GFS brings a good amount of rainfall to the region, while the ECMWF/Canadian will keep deeper moisture and rainfall further south, impacting rainfall chances and keeping a potential for drier weather. So, this far out, much uncertainty exists. Generally leaned towards the Blended guidance, with a tweak lower on pops through the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Conditions Expected Through the TAF Period. Clear skies being noted across the region on satellite. Expect the clear skies to continue overnight, with some high clouds potentially moving in late in the period. Light northwest winds around 5 kts are expected to become light and variable overnight. Winds likely become northeast mid-morning. There is a low chance for river induced fog at AGS and OGB due to the cold temps, but confidence is not high at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions to aviation expected through Friday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$