FXUS61 KCLE 081740 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1240 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the upper Midwest moves over the northern Great Lakes by tonight. A stronger area of low pressure moves into the central Great Lakes Saturday afternoon with its cold front moving eastward across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure moves eastward across the region on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 930AM Update... Slight adjustments were made to temperatures to have the overall high for today be a degree or two warmer given the more widespread clearing this morning. In addition, adjusted sky coverage to have most clear skies today with some high clouds building in across western counties this evening. Previous Discussion... High level cloud cover will move west to east across the region this morning with an axis of ridging at the middle levels of the atmosphere. As this ridge shifts east of the region it will allow some low level moisture to increase on a LLJ. This increased moisture and sunshine should allow for the development of some strato cumulus which may become broken to overcast across west of I-71 by the afternoon. This increased cloud cover likely keeps the low level jet from mixing efficiently to the surface. So this should keep wind gusts under control with speeds remaining under 30 mph. Highs today should be into the 50's areawide. Increasing cloud cover and a southerly breeze overnight will keep lows in the 40's tonight. Saturday will see warmer temperatures with some uncertainty about how much sunshine the region will see the. The thicker the cloud cover the region experiences the lighter the winds will be. However it still appears winds may touch 30-35 mph across the western CWA and in the downsloping flow across NW PA. There will be increased lift through the day but nothing to really focus any shower development. So for now will place an isolated to scattered shower mention through the afternoon. A few locations will at least approach record temperature levels on Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 50's to lower 60's. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Expansive upper level trough crosses east through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions this weekend. Widespread rainfall will occur across the majority of the CWA Saturday night into the day Sunday. Portions of our area could see periods of heavier rainfall as the best upper support and LLJ move overhead overnight Saturday. QPF amounts Saturday night into Monday morning up to 1 inch along and east of the I-71 corridor where the best jet support looks to set up. Locations west of I-71 and along the I-75 corridor will see lower QPF amounts between 0.25-0.75 inches. As previous discussions mentioned, this is a longer duration event so there are no concerns for flooding at this moment. Will continue to monitor the evolution of this system and keep an eye on our most responsive rivers and creeks. As the cold front crosses eastward during the day Sunday mean flow turns northwesterly with 850mb temperatures dropping between -7C and -10 C. This will turn lingering rain showers across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania into lake effect snow showers Sunday night. Lake effect snow showers gradually dissipate through the day Monday as mid level ridging and drier air build north into the Ohio Valley. Overall snow accumulations will be fairly light across the primary snowbelt. Snow totals generally less than an inch for most and up to 1 to 1.5 inches across higher elevations in northwest Pennsylvania. Ahead of the cold front, overnight low temperatures Saturday night will range between the upper 30s to lower 40s. Behind the cold front, overnight lows drop into the 20s areawide. Highs on Sunday rise into the mid to upper 40s. Cooler on Monday with highs in the low 30s in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania and upper 30s across western Ohio. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aforementioned high pressure ridging will continue to build northward into the lower Great Lakes region through mid week. This should allow for a fairly quiet period of weather through next week. There is a slight chance for lake effect precip across northwest Pennsylvania during the day Wedneday as a subtle shortwave aloft sags southward. High pressure then returns into the end of the week. Highs in the 40s for much of next week with lows in the upper 20s the lower 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Widespread VFR ceilings and visibilities are being observed across the area this afternoon as some mid-level clouds begin to move into western Ohio. The area currently lies in the warm sector of a low pressure system centered over the Upper Midwest. This has resulted in gusty winds from the southwest, sustained at 12-18 knots and gusting to near 25 knots in some locations. These gusty winds will last until near sunset and after remain from the south-southwest at 5-10 knots. As the cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure begins to approach the area Saturday morning, ceilings will gradually diminish to MVFR heights, hovering mostly above 2kft, but may drop to low end MVFR by the end of the period for western terminals. In addition, as the front approaches, the pressure gradient is expected to increase and result in winds ramping up again from the south. Late Saturday morning through the end of the TAF period will experience south winds of 15-20 knots, gusting up to 35 knots at times. The strongest winds should be limited to terminals along and west of I71 and for KERI where downsloping will enhance the winds. The final thing to mention is that the chance of showers spreads east through the period with KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD expected to get showers before 18Z Saturday. Overall forcing for shower development is better after this time period, so opted to keep VFR visibilities, but in any locally heavy showers, visibilities may briefly be reduced. Outlook...Non-VFR in isolated/scattered showers Saturday. Non- VFR continues Saturday night into Sunday in widespread rain. As the system exits to the east, lake effect snow may produce non- VFR conditions across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night and Monday. && .MARINE... A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie this morning and allow for southerly winds to increase to 15-20 knots. Highest winds and waves should remain offshore. Southerly winds remain elevated over the lake through the weekend as a low pressure system enters the lower Great Lakes region. This low will swing a cold front eastward across the lake Saturday night into Sunday and turn winds west- northwesterly by Sunday morning. Our next best chance for small craft advisories will come Sunday night into early next week as onshore flow increases to 20-25 knots. This should allow for waves in the nearshore to build to 3 to 6 feet, mainly across the central and eastern basins. Headlines will likely remain in place over the lake into the middle of next week as winds and waves remain elevated. && .CLIMATE... It is expected to get very warm on Saturday, December 9th, with temperatures approaching record high levels. Here are the records for Saturday: Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 12-09 60(1952) 60(1952) 62(1952) 62(1952) 64(1952) 65(1885) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Campbell/MM SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Iverson CLIMATE...