FXUS61 KCLE 081740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1240 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Low pressure over the upper Midwest moves over the northern
Great Lakes by tonight. A stronger area of low pressure moves
into the central Great Lakes Saturday afternoon with its cold
front moving eastward across the region Saturday night into
Sunday morning. High pressure moves eastward across the region
on Monday.


930AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures to have the overall
high for today be a degree or two warmer given the more
widespread clearing this morning. In addition, adjusted sky
coverage to have most clear skies today with some high clouds
building in across western counties this evening.

Previous Discussion...
High level cloud cover will move west to east across the region
this morning with an axis of ridging at the middle levels of the
atmosphere. As this ridge shifts east of the region it will
allow some low level moisture to increase on a LLJ. This increased
moisture and sunshine should allow for the development of some
strato cumulus which may become broken to overcast across west
of I-71 by the afternoon. This increased cloud cover likely
keeps the low level jet from mixing efficiently to the surface.
So this should keep wind gusts under control with speeds
remaining under 30 mph.

Highs today should be into the 50's areawide. Increasing cloud
cover and a southerly breeze overnight will keep lows in the
40's tonight.

Saturday will see warmer temperatures with some uncertainty
about how much sunshine the region will see the. The thicker the
cloud cover the region experiences the lighter the winds will
be. However it still appears winds may touch 30-35 mph across
the western CWA and in the downsloping flow across NW PA. There
will be increased lift through the day but nothing to really
focus any shower development. So for now will place an isolated
to scattered shower mention through the afternoon. A few
locations will at least approach record temperature levels on
Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 50's to lower 60's.


Expansive upper level trough crosses east through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions this weekend. Widespread rainfall will occur
across the majority of the CWA Saturday night into the day Sunday.
Portions of our area could see periods of heavier rainfall as the
best upper support and LLJ move overhead overnight Saturday. QPF
amounts Saturday night into Monday morning up to 1 inch along and
east of the I-71 corridor where the best jet support looks to set
up. Locations west of I-71 and along the I-75 corridor will see
lower QPF amounts between 0.25-0.75 inches. As previous discussions
mentioned, this is a longer duration event so there are no concerns
for flooding at this moment. Will continue to monitor the evolution
of this system and keep an eye on our most responsive rivers and

As the cold front crosses eastward during the day Sunday mean flow
turns northwesterly with 850mb temperatures dropping between -7C and
-10 C. This will turn lingering rain showers across northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania into lake effect snow showers Sunday
night. Lake effect snow showers gradually dissipate through the day
Monday as mid level ridging and drier air build north into the Ohio
Valley. Overall snow accumulations will be fairly light across the
primary snowbelt. Snow totals generally less than an inch for most
and up to 1 to 1.5 inches across higher elevations in northwest

Ahead of the cold front, overnight low temperatures Saturday night
will range between the upper 30s to lower 40s. Behind the cold
front, overnight lows drop into the 20s areawide. Highs on Sunday
rise into the mid to upper 40s. Cooler on Monday with highs in the
low 30s in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania and upper 30s
across western Ohio.


The aforementioned high pressure ridging will continue to build
northward into the lower Great Lakes region through mid week. This
should allow for a fairly quiet period of weather through next week.
There is a slight chance for lake effect precip across northwest
Pennsylvania during the day Wedneday as a subtle shortwave aloft
sags southward. High pressure then returns into the end of the week.

Highs in the 40s for much of next week with lows in the upper 20s
the lower 30s.


.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR ceilings and visibilities are being observed
across the area this afternoon as some mid-level clouds begin to
move into western Ohio. The area currently lies in the warm
sector of a low pressure system centered over the Upper Midwest.
This has resulted in gusty winds from the southwest, sustained
at 12-18 knots and gusting to near 25 knots in some locations.
These gusty winds will last until near sunset and after remain
from the south-southwest at 5-10 knots.

As the cold front associated with the aforementioned low
pressure begins to approach the area Saturday morning, ceilings
will gradually diminish to MVFR heights, hovering mostly above
2kft, but may drop to low end MVFR by the end of the period for
western terminals. In addition, as the front approaches, the
pressure gradient is expected to increase and result in winds
ramping up again from the south. Late Saturday morning through
the end of the TAF period will experience south winds of 15-20
knots, gusting up to 35 knots at times. The strongest winds
should be limited to terminals along and west of I71 and for
KERI where downsloping will enhance the winds. The final thing
to mention is that the chance of showers spreads east through
the period with KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD expected to get showers
before 18Z Saturday. Overall forcing for shower development is
better after this time period, so opted to keep VFR
visibilities, but in any locally heavy showers, visibilities may
briefly be reduced.

Outlook...Non-VFR in isolated/scattered showers Saturday. Non-
VFR continues Saturday night into Sunday in widespread rain. As
the system exits to the east, lake effect snow may produce non-
VFR conditions across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night and Monday.


A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie this morning and allow
for southerly winds to increase to 15-20 knots. Highest winds and
waves should remain offshore. Southerly winds remain elevated over
the lake through the weekend as a low pressure system enters the
lower Great Lakes region. This low will swing a cold front eastward
across the lake Saturday night into Sunday and turn winds west-
northwesterly by Sunday morning. Our next best chance for small
craft advisories will come Sunday night into early next week as
onshore flow increases to 20-25 knots. This should allow for waves
in the nearshore to build to 3 to 6 feet, mainly across the central
and eastern basins. Headlines will likely remain in place over the
lake into the middle of next week as winds and waves remain elevated.


It is expected to get very warm on Saturday, December 9th, with
temperatures approaching record high levels. Here are the records
for Saturday:

Date    Toledo    Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron    Youngstown    Erie

12-09   60(1952)   60(1952)    62(1952)  62(1952)   64(1952)    65(1885)





NEAR TERM...Campbell/MM
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson