FXUS61 KCLE 140925 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 425 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system tracks through tonight into Thursday. High pressure returns late Friday into the early part of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mild and dreary weather pattern will be the theme for the near term period with overcast skies and periods of rain/drizzle. For this morning, rain is beginning to spread north and northeast into the region and will eventually encompass the entire area by late morning and early afternoon. Still have a very dry air mass in place across the eastern half of the area, evident by dew points in the teens, though low-level moisture appears to be quickly arriving into the region across the west, with sites beginning to report measurable rainfall with relative humidity values above 90%. Aloft, an upper-level trough is expected to weaken as it becomes a closed low across the Ohio Valley by later this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain elevated throughout today, with widespread moderate rain this morning becoming light rain and/or drizzle by this evening and overnight, evident by light QPF probabilities in the HREF. Anticipate the cloudy and dreary weather to continue on Friday as a surface trough rounds the backside of the exiting upper-level low. Temperatures will remain fairly steady through the near term period with the moist air mass in place. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s today will fall into the mid to upper 40s tonight, followed by lower 50s on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Lake effect cloud covers and isolated, light rain showers may linger Friday night before dissipating through the day Saturday as an upper- level ridge and surface level high pressure build in. Temperatures are likely to remain near normal Friday night through Saturday night with partly cloudy skies gradually improving, though clouds in north- central Ohio could be a little stubborn to dissipate. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer as high pressure departs to the east and warm air advection ensures with south to southwest winds. An upper-level trough begins moving across the Great Lakes Sunday night, with low chance PoPs introduced Sunday night (20-50%). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some rain may continue into Monday morning before the weak cold front crosses the region and high pressure briefly builds in Monday through Monday night. Despite the cold front, temperatures shouldn't change too much with highs Monday afternoon still expected to be a few degrees above normal. For Tuesday/Wednesday, an upper-level trough and surface low pressure system build into the Great Plains region, gradually approaching the Great Lakes region. In general, expect some rain chances with continues slightly above normal temperatures during this period. There is some spread in model guidance, particularly with the amplification and timing of the approaching upper-level trough. Should be some light rain that move in from the west on Tuesday before dissipating as precip become too displace from synoptic forcing. By Wednesday, good deal of spread in synoptic- scale features with GEFS suggesting near guaranteed precip chances (as upper-level cut-off low meanders eastward) and ENS diminishing precip chances as the cut-off low dives south and slows down. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with deterioration to widespread MVFR and VFR, associated with low ceilings and vsbys, by later this morning and early afternoon. Non-VFR conditions are then expected to persist through the TAF period. Lower confidence in IFR conditions exists at CLE/ERI as modest southeast winds may limit lower ceilings, at least initially. A brief period of heavier <2sm rain is possible this morning and have reflected this in tempo groups. Otherwise, drizzle/mist is expected to fill in behind the initial surge of precipitation later this afternoon and evening, so think widespread Non-VFR vsbys are likely to persist through the TAF period. Winds are generally out of the southeast early this morning, 10 to 15 knots with periodic higher gusts of 25 to 30 knots, especially across the eastern half of the area. The highest gusts of 35 to perhaps 40 knots will be found at ERI through this morning associated with southeast downsloping winds. Otherwise, southeast winds will remain elevated through much of today, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will diminish slightly to around 10 knots or less later this evening. Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periods of drizzle and/or fog Friday and Friday night. Non-VFR possible in fog Saturday night into Sunday morning. Non-VFR possible again in rain showers Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds of 10 to 20 knots continue this morning, with stronger wind speeds expected away from the shoreline. These winds should diminish by the afternoon, though there is a chance for stronger winds to persist in the Erie, PA nearshore zone as downsloping southeast winds continues into the evening hours. Weakening low pressure passes to the south tonight, with winds becoming 10-15 knots out of the north Friday into Friday night. High pressure builds in with weaker winds on Saturday and Saturday night. As high pressure departs to the east, south winds develop on Sunday becoming southwest Sunday night. Stronger southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots may necessitate the need for a small craft advisory during this period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Saunders