FXUS64 KCRP 080804
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
304 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024
Key Messages:
- Minor Coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents today and
tomorrow along Gulf facing beaches.
- Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning.
- Monitoring tropical cyclone formation chance of 70% over the Bay
of Campeche over the next 48 hours, higher chances in the long
term.
An upper level high will expand over the region today and tomorrow
promoting partly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, a mid level disturbance
will increase moisture and instability in the mid levels but will
lack any lower level lifting mechanisms so will be mainly dry in
the short term period. There's also a surface low in the SW Gulf
interacting with a frontal boundary but is progged to move further
south. This low will approach and possibly interact with another
low over the Bay of Campeche which we are watching for possible
tropical development with a high 70% chance of developing into a
tropical system over the next two days, but more on that in the
long term discussion. Rain chances will start to increase in the
short term in response to the aforementioned possible tropical
disturbance as it moves northwest and closer to the TX coastline.
There's a low 15-20% chance for precipitation today near the
southern coast and this will increase late tonight and Monday with a
low 20-30% chance inland and a moderate 30-50% chance along the
Coastal bend and the coast. There's a potential for some periods of
heavy rainfall on Monday as PWAT's approach 2.0" near the coast and
a Marginal risk for heavy rain has been issued by WPC near the TX
coast for Monday.
Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will settle in the 85-90 degree
range with overnight lows 65-75 degrees tonight.
Elevated seas and a strong northeasterly flow combined with Ekman
forcing is resulting in long period swells 7-8 seconds and seas of 6-
9 feet. This will continue to pose a high risk for rip currents and
minor coastal flooding and will likely continue beyond the short
term forecast. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a high rip current risk
are currently in effect until Monday morning but may need to be
extended.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024
Key Messages:
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche. Chance of formation is high (70%)
over the next 2 days.
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall Tuesday night
along the coast. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)of excessive
rainfall is in place over the Coastal Plains.
- Moderate to high risk of rip currents and coastal flooding through
at least midweek.
- Medium to high chance for marine hazards continues into this week
with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely.
All eyes are on the tropics as we watch an area of low pressure
located over the Bay of Campeche drifting to the northwest and
interacting with a stationary front over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Currently this system is still disorganized, but conditions will
become more conducive to tropical development. NHC has a high (70%
and 80%) chance of development over the next 48 hours and 7 days,
respectively. At this time, it appears that this system will become
a Tropical Depression sometime during the middle of this week
somewhere along the Mexico/Texas Gulf coast. Of course, with our
warm, shallow waters, we urge all residents of South Texas to begin
preparations for a potential tropical storm or even a hurricane.
Better safe than sorry.
The main threats with this system at this time are projected to be
heavy rainfall and beach hazards. Heavy rainfall, mainly focused
over the Coastal Bend and portions of the Coastal Plains. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible along the Coastal Bend and 1 to
3 inches over the Coastal Plains, with locally higher amounts
possible. High rainfall rates could lead to flash flooding, so we
are included in a slight risk of excessive rainfall for the Coastal
Bend with a Marginal risk over portions of the Coastal Plains. Beach
hazards are our next most likely threat, with long period swell
leading to high surf, a high risk of rip currents, and minor coastal
flooding along our area beaches. Mariners should also note that
winds are expected to range from 20 to 30 knots, with occasional
gusts to gale force. Small Craft Advisories will be likely through
the middle of the week.
Rain chances will diminish late this week with only a low to moderate
chance of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday and into the
weekend. Temperatures will increase, with highs nearing 100 degrees
over the Brush Country and heat index values of 105-109 expected
across much of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
VFR conditions for VSBY and CIGS through the next 24 hours. High
pressure will continue cool, dry air into the region for another
day. Winds will be 10 knots or so, with gusts to around 20kts
during the day, and no gusts at night. Wind directions will be
mainly out of the north to northeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024
Strong northeasterly flow will decrease Monday to moderate to
strong around 20 knots. Then, the northeasterly flow will become
moderate late Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
to persist through Monday evening and beyond due to these
elevated winds with seas 7 to 10 feet. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms today and tomorrow will be moderate to high across
much of the waters as the next system approaches. The National
Hurricane Center has given an area of low pressure near the Bay of
Campeche a high, 80%, chance of development over the next 7 days.
The forecast is highly dependent on this system. At this time,
wave heights are expected to increase to 5 to 8 feet, with
occasional seas to 10 feet. Winds are expected to increase to
moderate to strong by the middle of the week and there is a medium
to high chance of showers and thunderstorms expected through
Thursday. Mariners are urged to monitor the forecast and take
necessary precautions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 88 70 86 72 / 10 20 40 50
Victoria 89 65 88 70 / 0 10 20 30
Laredo 90 68 90 71 / 0 0 10 20
Alice 89 69 88 71 / 10 10 30 40
Rockport 90 71 89 74 / 10 20 30 50
Cotulla 91 66 91 69 / 0 0 10 10
Kingsville 89 70 86 72 / 10 20 40 50
Navy Corpus 86 75 84 76 / 20 30 40 60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-
442-443-447.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Monday
for TXZ345-442-443-447.
High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ231-
232-236-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270-
275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...JSL