FXUS64 KCRP 111724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Mesonet sites across the northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria
Crossroads show temperatures below freezing in low lying areas
where drainage effects have occurred. The Freeze Warning will
continue for this area along with Live Oak and McMullen Counties
until 8 AM.

After a cold start, temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s
to near 70 for inland areas as a weak onshore flow develops this
afternoon with the surface high pressure ridge moving to the east.
Generally sunny skies are expected with some thin cirrus possible
across southern part of the forecast area.

An upper trough moving through the Intermountain West today will
drop south into the Great Basin and form into a closed low Tuesday
afternoon. With surface trough of low pressure forming over the
southern Rockies, low level flow will develop tonight and increase
on Tuesday. NAM appears too aggressive with moisture return tonight,
prefer the GFS showing moisture in the 295-300K layer increasing
during the day Tuesday. Even with increasing clouds, temperatures
are expected to warm into the 70s Tuesday.


(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Key Messages:

- Increased rain chances mid to late week

- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Friday into Friday night

- Potential for minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of
  rip currents late week

A coastal trough developing ahead of the next advancing upper level
system and associated cold front will lead to a steady increase in
moisture across the area mid to late week. PWATs are progged to
increase to near 1.3-1.5 inches by Wednesday, peaking at around 1.6
inches by Friday ahead of the front. Isolated to scattered showers
Wednesday (20-30%) will become scattered to numerous by Friday (50-
70%), with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. Although
widespread flash flooding is not anticipated at this time, WPC has
highlighted eastern portions of our CWA under a Marginal risk for
excessive rainfall on Friday, with total rainfall amounts adding up
to 2 inches through the end of the period.

The upper level low is progged to swing into west Texas Thursday
night into early Friday morning, and exit somewhere along the upper
Texas coast or Southeast Texas Saturday night, with high pressure
quickly building in behind it. The front itself is expected to reach
South Texas Friday evening leading to breezy, cooler and drier
conditions on its wake. Rain chances will diminish Saturday through
Sunday, though lingering moisture will maintain slight rain chances
across the marine zones. High temperatures will range in the 60s and
70s ahead of the front, and in the 50s and 60s behind it. Saturday
night is shaping to be the coldest in the Extended range with
overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 40s inland.

In terms of additional hazards, there will be an increased risk for
rip currents and minor coastal flooding along the Gulf-facing
beaches of the Middle Texas Coast as we head into the latter part of
the week. A persistent moderate to at times strong easterly flow
offshore and swell periods around 8-11 seconds may bring run-up
above 2 feet MSL mainly at the time of high tide beginning Thursday
night. Although no advisories are in effect for this event yet,
we will need to continue to monitor the beach and seas conditions
in case one is needed on a later package.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and evening
with southeast winds less than 10 knots expected. Moisture return
early Tuesday morning will contribute to areas of SCT/BKN clouds
developing but the likelihood of MVFR ceilings is very low.


Issued at 433 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Light and variable winds early this morning will become weak
onshore during the late morning and continue through tonight.
A weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Tuesday.

A moderate to at times strong easterly flow will develop
Wednesday and persist through Friday. Winds will shift around to
an offshore flow Friday night into Saturday as a cold front
advances through the area. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
possible through the week and into the weekend. Isolated to
scattered showers Wednesday will become scattered to numerous by
the end of the week.


Corpus Christi    69  53  75  63 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          68  45  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            70  49  73  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             70  49  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          67  54  73  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           70  47  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        70  50  75  61 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       68  59  73  65 /   0   0  10  10