FXUS61 KCTP 111803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
103 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Breezy and colder today with snow showers fading into tonight.
The weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday will feature a
dry spell with seasonal temperatures trending milder by the


Blustery through the afternoon with snow showers/lake streamers
impacting portions of the western and northern Alleghenies.
Peak wind gusts will be in the 35-40 mph range.

Briefly heavy and narrow snow shower bands on radar have been
very transient as the cross parts of I-80. We highlighted a few
of these bands with an SPS earlier this morning. Road temps have
climbed above freezing, but duration and intensity (sub 30dBZ)
of the snow showers may not be enough to produce quick coating
and flash freeze type situation.

Highs today will be 10 to 20 degs lower vs. yesterday with maxes
in the low 30s to mid 40s - but the wind chill will make it
feel colder more like the upper teens to mid 30s.

Expect snow showers to fade this evening into tonight as sfc
ridge axis slides into the area - lowering inversion heights and
backing llvl flow to the west/southwest.


Modified arctic high pressure will dominate the short term
period kicking off what should be a prolonged dry spell for
central PA. There could be a couple of snow showers or flurries
over the northern tier as a mid level trough and reinforcing
shot of colder air translates east of the Great Lakes Wed PM.
Wednesday night/Thursday morning looks relatively cold with min
temps in the teens and lower 20s.


The extended period looks like it will continue the relatively
benign weather pattern. Both the GEFS and the ECENS project
upper level heights to be +1 SD Friday into next weekend, which
should translate to slightly above normal temperatures.

The operational runs of the GFS and the ECMWF both suggest that
a shortwave may dive southeastward from the Great Lakes in the
Sat night/Sunday timeframe, which would bring some clouds and
perhaps a bit of light precip to northern PA.

After that, the EC tries to phase northern and southern stream
energy to produce a potential coastal storm Sunday night into
Monday. The GFS, on the other hand, does not phase these
systems and shunts the southern stream energy well to our south
and out to sea. There is still a lot of time to watch how this
potential event unfolds.


Slowly improving flying conditions continue this afternoon, as
low pressure and exits the area and a drier NWerly flow helps
cigs to rise. MVFR cigs are likely to persist over the western
highlands (BFD and JST) this aftn, with MVFR cigs improving to
VFR across the central mtns (AOO and UNV) and solidly VFR conds
continuing for the Susq Valley.

Moisture flowing off of the Grt Lks is helping scattered bands
of -SHSN persist across the NW mtns, and a particularly
stubborn band has been impacting BFD with 3/4SM to 1 1/2SM early
this afternoon.

Northwest winds will be gusty this aftn, as low pressure
intensifies while pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. Have
seen occasional gusts of 20-30 kts already, and this should
continue through late afternoon.

High pressure will build into the region tonight, causing
diminishing winds and bringing an end to any lingering -SHSN.
MVFR cigs may hang on through a good part of the overnight over
the western highlands.


Tue...AM MVFR cigs N/W giving way to VFR conds areawide.

Wed-Sat...Predominantly VFR w/no sig wx expected.


It has been 318 days since the last measurable snowfall
(>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This ranks as the 3rd longest run on

1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020
2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007
3. 318 days ending 12/09/2023





NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Martin
LONG TERM...Evanego