FXUS63 KDDC 111101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...


- Confidence improving for a widespread rain event across
  southwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. Confidence now 60-70%.
  Yesterday it was 20-30%.

- Monitoring the potential for a 20-30% chance for some light snow
  across extreme southwest Kansas (Elkhart, Johnson and Hugoton)

- A 40-60% chance for temperatures struggling to get out of the
  30s west of highway 83.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Dry and warm conditions will begin the work week. These
unseasonably warm conditions will occur ahead of a cold front
which will be moving south across Nebraska during the afternoon.
Today will be the warmest day of the upcoming work week with highs
in the mid to upper 50s. NBM indicated only a 3-5F spread in the
25th to 75th percentile on temperatures today which yields high
confidence on these temperatures. If you have a chance to get out
then today would be the day.

Tonight, a cold front will cross western Kansas as mid to high
level moisture/cloud cover increases across the area. The
combination of the cooler temperatures returning behind this cold
front and increasing clouds will result in temperatures on average
being near 10 degrees cooler Tuesday afternoon compared to the
highs expected later this Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Ensembles and deterministic models this morning was similar and
continue to have run to run consistency with the upper low moving
to near the 4 corners region Wednesday and then eastward toward
west Texas during the last half of the work week. Ahead of this
upper low was difluent flow aloft as warm moist air spreads
northwest into the Panhandle of Texas and even portions of
southwest Kansas. For the third straight day widespread 24hour
precipitation of >0.1” is forecast to be 90% west of roughly
highway 283 Wednesday and Thursday. West of Dodge City and South
of highway 50 the probability for >0.5” in this area is 40-60%.
Also the latest ensemble precipitable water and climatological
percentiles across southwest Kansas ranged from 97.5 to 99 max
values as the isentropic lift/warm air advection ahead of the
approaching upper low occurs across southwest Kansas. Given this
it is not surprising that the ECMWF EFI has an area of 0.6 to 0.7
and a Shift of Tails of around 1 across extreme southwest Kansas.
Based on this plus what minor shift in the upper low track
observed late week from some of the ensembles have been further
north and not south have resulted in higher confidence in this wet
solution for southwest Kansas. Confidence on this solution is now
60-70% which is up from 20-30% last night. Now keep in mind even
with confidence appearing to be increasing on the widespread rain
event this is still several days out and as mentioned yesterday
that if a large area of convection develops ahead of this system
then a sudden shift south may occur. At this time however given
run to run consistency from the majority of the ensembles this
solution appears less likely (60-70%).

Another concern with this upcoming event Wednesday night into
early Thursday, if this solution verifies, will be that extreme
southwest Kansas will be an area most favorable here for a rain to
snow change over so there will be a chance that some snow
accumulations will also be possible before this event ends.
Currently the latest NBM only has a 20-30% chance for 24 hour
snowfall of 0.5” or greater. At this time not looking at a
significant event but we may need to monitor the potential for
minor winter travel hazards if some light snow accumulations do

Along with this widespread rain some unseasonably cold
temperatures can also be expected given the prolonged period of
cloud cover and cold rain chances. Increasing clouds on Tuesday
will limit how warm temperatures will get during the day and then
once the rain develops the temperatures will fall with little
recovery expected until the upper wave passes late week. Based on
this the current forecast for Wednesday and Thursday may be a
little optimistic with highs in the 40s, especially where the
higher precipitation chances will occur. Would not be surprised to
see temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s in some
locations south and west of Dodge City. This morning the NBM for
Thursday has a 40-60% chance for temperatures to be less than 40
degrees west of highway 83. Will also have to monitor how cold
temperatures get during the overnight hours. Even with little
diurnal change in temperatures expected the NBM has a +80% chance
for lows to dip below 32 Thursday and Friday morning west of
highway 83. Depending on the precipitation type that may be
occurring this could result in some slick spots, primarily on
elevated surfaces.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Mid to high level moisture/cloud cover will accompany an upper
level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow today. At the the
surface a westerly wind at around 10 knots will back more to the
south southwest mid to late day as a surface cold front approaches
from the north. This cold front will cross southwest Kansas after
06z tonight and as this boundary passes the southerly wind will
shift to the north.


DDC  58  27  48  33 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  56  27  47  29 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  56  27  50  31 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  57  26  51  31 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  57  28  45  28 /   0   0   0  10
P28  58  30  52  36 /   0   0   0  10




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert