FXUS63 KDDC 111101 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 501 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Confidence improving for a widespread rain event across southwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. Confidence now 60-70%. Yesterday it was 20-30%. - Monitoring the potential for a 20-30% chance for some light snow across extreme southwest Kansas (Elkhart, Johnson and Hugoton) - A 40-60% chance for temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s west of highway 83. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Dry and warm conditions will begin the work week. These unseasonably warm conditions will occur ahead of a cold front which will be moving south across Nebraska during the afternoon. Today will be the warmest day of the upcoming work week with highs in the mid to upper 50s. NBM indicated only a 3-5F spread in the 25th to 75th percentile on temperatures today which yields high confidence on these temperatures. If you have a chance to get out then today would be the day. Tonight, a cold front will cross western Kansas as mid to high level moisture/cloud cover increases across the area. The combination of the cooler temperatures returning behind this cold front and increasing clouds will result in temperatures on average being near 10 degrees cooler Tuesday afternoon compared to the highs expected later this Monday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Ensembles and deterministic models this morning was similar and continue to have run to run consistency with the upper low moving to near the 4 corners region Wednesday and then eastward toward west Texas during the last half of the work week. Ahead of this upper low was difluent flow aloft as warm moist air spreads northwest into the Panhandle of Texas and even portions of southwest Kansas. For the third straight day widespread 24hour precipitation of >0.1” is forecast to be 90% west of roughly highway 283 Wednesday and Thursday. West of Dodge City and South of highway 50 the probability for >0.5” in this area is 40-60%. Also the latest ensemble precipitable water and climatological percentiles across southwest Kansas ranged from 97.5 to 99 max values as the isentropic lift/warm air advection ahead of the approaching upper low occurs across southwest Kansas. Given this it is not surprising that the ECMWF EFI has an area of 0.6 to 0.7 and a Shift of Tails of around 1 across extreme southwest Kansas. Based on this plus what minor shift in the upper low track observed late week from some of the ensembles have been further north and not south have resulted in higher confidence in this wet solution for southwest Kansas. Confidence on this solution is now 60-70% which is up from 20-30% last night. Now keep in mind even with confidence appearing to be increasing on the widespread rain event this is still several days out and as mentioned yesterday that if a large area of convection develops ahead of this system then a sudden shift south may occur. At this time however given run to run consistency from the majority of the ensembles this solution appears less likely (60-70%). Another concern with this upcoming event Wednesday night into early Thursday, if this solution verifies, will be that extreme southwest Kansas will be an area most favorable here for a rain to snow change over so there will be a chance that some snow accumulations will also be possible before this event ends. Currently the latest NBM only has a 20-30% chance for 24 hour snowfall of 0.5” or greater. At this time not looking at a significant event but we may need to monitor the potential for minor winter travel hazards if some light snow accumulations do develop. Along with this widespread rain some unseasonably cold temperatures can also be expected given the prolonged period of cloud cover and cold rain chances. Increasing clouds on Tuesday will limit how warm temperatures will get during the day and then once the rain develops the temperatures will fall with little recovery expected until the upper wave passes late week. Based on this the current forecast for Wednesday and Thursday may be a little optimistic with highs in the 40s, especially where the higher precipitation chances will occur. Would not be surprised to see temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s in some locations south and west of Dodge City. This morning the NBM for Thursday has a 40-60% chance for temperatures to be less than 40 degrees west of highway 83. Will also have to monitor how cold temperatures get during the overnight hours. Even with little diurnal change in temperatures expected the NBM has a +80% chance for lows to dip below 32 Thursday and Friday morning west of highway 83. Depending on the precipitation type that may be occurring this could result in some slick spots, primarily on elevated surfaces. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 500 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Mid to high level moisture/cloud cover will accompany an upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow today. At the the surface a westerly wind at around 10 knots will back more to the south southwest mid to late day as a surface cold front approaches from the north. This cold front will cross southwest Kansas after 06z tonight and as this boundary passes the southerly wind will shift to the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 58 27 48 33 / 0 0 0 10 GCK 56 27 47 29 / 0 0 0 10 EHA 56 27 50 31 / 0 0 0 10 LBL 57 26 51 31 / 0 0 0 20 HYS 57 28 45 28 / 0 0 0 10 P28 58 30 52 36 / 0 0 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert