FXUS63 KDLH 111730
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1130 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing drizzle this morning.

- Gale warnings on Lake Superior with potential for strong winds
  inland on the North Shore Tuesday.

- Lake effect snow on the South Shore possible Tuesday.

- Warming up well above normal Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure is overhead causing an expansive stratus deck that
continues to lower and thicken in places. This has formed some
patchy freezing drizzle this morning mixed in with some light
snow - especially where anthropogenic sources have contributed
to CCN. There may be a little clearing of this stratus deck
today as winds pick up, but overall think it will maintain at
least a broken layer until drier air works its way into the
region on Tuesday.

A cold air mass will arrive on the backside of a clipper system
that just misses most of the Northland to the northeast on
Tuesday. This system will however increase the pressure gradient
and potentially enhance winds along the North Shore with dry
katabatic flow that could broach Wind Advisory criteria.
Carrying relatively high PoPs with low QPF mainly for the MN
Arrowhead. As the cold pool quickly passes over, there will be a
favorable period of high delta T's which should kick up some
lake effect snow bands along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

High pressure builds afterwards bringing in warm temperatures
that will be well above normal by 15 degrees or more Thursday
into at least Sunday. There is a small chance (20%) for some
light precipitation Friday though model agreement is varied
though consistent on a similar feature. Some of this could fall
as freezing drizzle or rain though it's a bit early to tell.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

IFR/LIFR stratus will linger into the afternoon mainly over NE
MN. Winds will continue out of the southwest with gusts to near
20 knots across the region. A cold front is expected to move
through late this evening. As a result, winds will switch to
the northwest with gusts to near 30 knots tomorrow morning for
HIB, DLH and INL. Elsewhere gusts will be in the 20 to 25 knots
range.

A few light snow snow showers are possible late this evening for
HYR as the cold front moves through.

&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 949 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Strong southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon to near
30 knot gusts. A cold front is expected to move through late
this evening which will turn the winds to the northwest. Due to
the strong pressure gradient behind the front winds are expected
to increase to Gale Force late tonight into tomorrow morning.
As a result, waves will increase to the 4-8 foot range with
occasional waves reaching near 12 feet. Additionally, a Gale
Warning has been issued for this evening into Tuesday afternoon.
There will be a lull with the gusts overnight, but should ramp
up again by Tuesday morning. By Wednesday morning winds will
decrease to below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     LSZ140>147-150.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM CST Tuesday for
     LSZ140>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KSE
MARINE...