FXUS63 KDMX 171933
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and pleasant weather the rest of the week

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast by the weekend
  and continue into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Another mild day across Iowa as high pressure sink south into the
area. A diurnally driven cumulus field has been the only real
weather to speak of as temperatures this afternoon have warmed
into the upper 70s and low 80s. North winds have mixed out with
dry air in place, allowing for areas of 15-20 mph wind gusts
this afternoon. As the sun sets this evening expect to see
winds relax and cloud cover quickly dissipate.

Thursday and Friday will be much of the same as high pressure
dominates the area and keeps things mild and quite. Expect afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s with
low humidity. As we move toward the weekend and embedded shortwave
drops south into Iowa and then slows and deepens over the area. This
will bring thunderstorms back to the area on Saturday and into
Sunday. Instability remains pushed to the west which will limit much
of the severe potential, but a few showers and non-severe
thunderstorms are possible.

This shortwave evolves into a weak, cut-off upper level low that
sits across the midwest through the first half of next week.
Instability remains weak across the area and models currently
lack any real forcing component across the area, but with low
pressure across the area diurnal driven afternoon thunderstorms
are possible. As the previous discussion alluded to, these will
be non-severe as the environment just will not support stronger
development. Otherwise temperatures remain seasonally mild in
the low 80s through the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Scattered cumulus has developed early this afternoon with wind
mixing out and gusting 15-20 kts. By sunset expect to see clouds
diminish and winds relax. Similar conditions are expected on
Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff