FXUS63 KDMX 250857 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 357 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry today through the weekend. - Windy and warm with elevated fire weather conditions early next week - Another rainfall window around the middle of next week followed by a second towards the end of the week. Details to come. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Precipitation from last night has come to an end over all but the far southeast and any lingering precipitation will end before daybreak as the shortwave continues to move off to the east. The bulk of the shower and storm activity occurred generally east of I-35 last night with preliminary totals in our county warning area (CWA) ranging from a few hundredths to several tenths of inches (but below 1"), with a number of locations, like our office and areas west, receiving only a trace of rain or staying dry completely. For those of you wanting rain, the next several days may disappoint but the week ahead may have some renewed opportunities. High pressure moves in today causing this morning to be on the breezy side as the pressure gradient tightens, but winds should start to relax into the afternoon/early evening hours as the high pressure moves overhead tonight into Saturday. The quiet and dry conditions will be paired with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s today and Saturday which although may feel chilly at times, is actually closer to seasonal high temperatures for late October. Saturday morning will be notably chilly, however, with lows in the upper 20s to 30s which is near to below seasonal normals which are in the 30s to around 40. The pressure gradient increases again as the high moves off to the east on Sunday leading to the return of breezy winds, especially north, but dry conditions remain as the upper ridge shifts overhead Sunday into early Monday. Flow turns out of the south to southwest Saturday night into Sunday behind the departing high pressure as well which will lead to warmer temperatures Sunday, in the 60s, but even warmer temperatures to start the new work week with highs in the 70s to even some 80s possibly returning on Tuesday. This unseasonable warmth could lead to some high temperature or warm minimum temperature records being challenged, more on that in the coming days as current guidance may be a bit overdone on Tuesday. The warmth at the start of the week will be paired with even stronger winds (30-40+ mph) and the return of at least elevated fire weather conditions before the arrival of the next system and associated front in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame which will bring our next chances for showers and storms. Cooler temperatures return behind the front on Thursday but this cool down will be short lived as temperatures warm again into next weekend with another system quick on the heels of the mid-week system. Details remain limited at this time range, but stay tuned for updates as we watch two potential rain makers in the next week! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Convection moves east out of central Iowa during the overnight with VFR conditions becoming common across the area as skies clear. KOTM (Ottumwa) terminal is likely to be impacted by showers and possible thunderstorms early in the TAF period with improving conditions by sunrise. Widespread VFR conditions are expected on Friday with unrestricted ceilings and visibilities. Surface winds increase from the northwest in the morning with gusty winds into the afternoon. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KCM AVIATION...Cogil