FXUS63 KDTX 181056
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
556 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance of widespread accumulating snow showers will be
  tonight into Monday, when 1-3" inches is expected.

- Frigid and blustery conditions Monday with potential for snow
  squalls and winds gusting 30-40 mph.

- Dangerously cold wind chills of -5 to -15F Monday night into
  Tuesday morning.

- Another light round of snow likely on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Subtle veering of wind in the cloud bearing layer has caused stratus
to expand across much of the area this morning. Prevailing MVFR
ceiling today, particularly north of Metro Detroit where lake
moisture is most plentiful via low-level southwest flow. A few
flurries possible in this plume but accumulating snow is not
anticipated during the day. Model soundings show occasional lapses
in low-level saturation for the Detroit terminals, so fluctuations
to VFR may be possible at times. A clipper system is on track to
move into the area from the Midwest this evening, bringing
widespread light snowfall to all terminals into tonight. A strong
arctic front follows this system Monday morning with snow/cloud
character shifting to more localized lake effect streamers through
Monday.

For DTW...Intervals between MVFR and VFR are most likely through the
morning and early afternoon. Light snowfall favored to start around
00Z this evening and begin to taper off around 07Z. Snow showers
then become more prevalent Monday morning with the arctic front
passing through around 12Z, shifting wind to the west with gusts
quickly ramping up to 30 knots.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the day. High tonight.

* Medium to exceed crosswind thresholds Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

DISCUSSION...

First wave of arctic air has arrived overnight after dropping into
the Ohio Valley with the cyclonic flow then drawing it back
northward into far southern MI. This has lead to falling dewpoints
into the single digits lifting up across the Ohio border. Lingering
band of moisture and snow showers up through Mid MI continues to
lose intensity into the early morning with mainly flurries
persisting but still some fine lines of convergence helping bring
some 2-4SM snow at times. Dry southwesterly flow will continue into
the day further scouring out the moisture depth ahead of the next
clipper that will slide through tonight. Still with a trough axis in
the vicinity and subsidence inversion aloft trapping the low level
moisture, it's looking likely that we'll stay overcast today with
highs only in the low to mid 20s.

Next chance of widespread snow comes tonight as a clipper dives
through the longwave trough encompassing the region. Though the
leading mid level vort max digs south of the area, the surface low
sets up well to our north over Lake Superior, deepening as it phases
with the lingering lake trough over the waters and additional mid
level support moves in. Initial prefrontal trough and leading theta
e push comes through soon after 00Z this evening. Some additional
mid level deformation support slides through on the north side of
the mid level wave skirting through Ohio as well. Moisture depth
once saturated will rise to over 15kft with the arctic air
steepening low level lapse rates through the DGZ which will be
between 2-5kft. QPF amounts still reside around 0.1 inch and with
the decent forcing and high snow to liquid ratios in excess 20:1
with the arctic airmass, 1 to 2 inches should be possible overnight.
Main arctic front then sweeps through prior to 12Z Monday. In
addition to the continues strong frontal forcing and low level lapse
rates, this front will drag the SW to NE oriented lake convergence
axis eastward across lower MI. Mixing depths get a big boost up to
around 8-9kft which is all lining up for a decent lake effect day
across southern MI. Though initially getting pushed toward the I94
corridor, the westerly flow looks to organize it between I94 and M59
into the afternoon before mid level moisture gets stripped out with
weak ridging trying to slide through the area. So the lake
convergence axis will be offset somewhat by the arctic air cooling
the airmass below the DGZ leading to smaller flakes. Wind gusts will
possibly reach 30-40 mph with the high mixing depths accessing 40
knots aloft which will lead to blowing and drifting snow in addition
to potential snow squalls. Snow totals for the day Monday will be
difficult to pinpoint due to the dependency on the location of the
lake band. Would expect a broad footprint of totals of 0.5-1.0
inches with locally higher totals in the vicinity of the band.

Temperatures will be another issue through the front half of the
week with the arctic airmass in the negative teens today, dipping
further to below -20C on Monday and Monday night. With temps in the
teens during the day Monday and Tuesday and dropping to around 0F
Monday night with the winds present, Wind chill values will be at or
below 0F for the most part these days. Monday night remains the
focus for the coldest wind chill potential with negative teens noted
in the Thumb and near the Ohio border, but lingering lake effect
clouds centered around M59 will lead to slightly warmer values in
the -10 to -5F range.

Longwave trough flattens Tuesday into Wednesday with heights
increasing and a strong surface high to the south bringing warmer
air back to the region with highs back around 30 on Wednesday. Any
break in the active weather post arctic outbreak looks short as the
next system is already targeting the area for Wednesday bringing
another round of snow.

MARINE...

A partial slackening of the gradient this morning allows southwest
winds to edge down slightly, toward the 20-25kt range. Next clipper
quickly arrives over the northern Great Lakes latter part of today
deepening as it slides into eastern Ontario. Associated arctic front
is then set to drop across the central Great Lakes Monday afternoon
ushering in the coldest airmass of the winter season thus far and
widespread snow showers/squalls. Gradient looks to respond most over
the southern Great Lakes, given the low center near Manitoulin
Island, with west-southwest gale potential developing by Monday
morning before the arrival of the actual cold front. For Lake Huron,
a roughly 3-5hr window for gales comes immediately along/following
the arctic front Monday afternoon-evening with post frontal mixing
partially mixing down a 40-45kt LLJ forecast to develop at the base
of the low. Gale Watches remain in effect from the central waters of
Lake Huron down to Lake Erie as a result. Areas of moderate to heavy
freezing spray also likely in this timeframe.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LCZ460

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday eve

&&

$$

AVIATION.....TF
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KDK


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