FXUS63 KEAX 091125 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly above seasonal temperatures continue before warming back to well above normal Sunday. - Two opportunities for rain fall come Friday and Monday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms anticipated. && .UPDATE... Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A combination of a subtle 500mb shortwave and an 850mb moisture boundary oriented NW to SE from approximately Beatrice, NE to Butler, MO has found just enough instability to generate a few updrafts creating isolated showers and storms. At the moment these showers and storms are concentrated across areas south of I-70 particularly south of Harrisonville; however, chances for at least sprinkles to showers exist across the totality of this line. Precip chances decrease as the upper level wave moves out of the area later this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Ridging continues to dominate the weather over the central US. This keeps quiet seasonal conditions around with temperatures bottoming out on the 40s and 50s. The core of the surface high has moved off to the east turning winds southerly opening up warm air and moisture advection from the Gulf. Temperatures will gradually warm elevating above average to the 80s by the weekend. A couple quick moving systems keep temperatures from advancing further upward. This oscillating pattern of normal to above normal temperatures looks to continue through the forecast period. A lot of these temperatures fluctuation are due to perturbations in the upper level flow. While a large ridge dominates the south central CONUS, the edges of this system area a fair bit more malleable resulting in several upper level embedded shortwaves. This combined with passing strong troughs to the north open up opportunities for disturbances to spread southward into our area. The first opportunity appears overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. A strong low pressure system traverses southern Manitoba and Ontario dropping a cold front across the CONUS. This front advances across the central CONUS bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to our area early Friday morning. Precipitation potential increases after midnight Friday continuing through the morning hours with storms expected to be out of the area by midday. Model guidance paints a large vein of moisture transport into eastern KS ahead of the fronts arrival; however, the remaining convective parameters are a bit lacking. While most models suggest the front will be able to sufficiently tap into the moisture and develop showers and thunderstorms, the solutions proposed amongst them are a bit different. Broad scale deterministic models want to paint a fairly broad near MCS like structure vs more high resolution CAM guidance which keeps convection more isolated to scattered. Empirically, moisture plus lift with a lack of CAPE and shear point more towards the isolated to scattered coverage solution. The primary uncertainty in organization will be the assembly of any nocturnal LLJ or the presence/absence of upper level CVA. Regardless, this is not looking to be a significant event with chances for strong to severe storms being minimal. The next chance for showers and storms arrives Monday. The synoptic profile looks somewhat similar to Friday's with the exception of the high being displaced slightly to the east and a tag team of troughs across the western CONUS and Great Lakes. The kinematic setup looks much more favorable for strong frontogenesis; however, the moisture profile looks less favorable at this juncture. The other uncertainty is model guidance suggestion of the front becoming better organized east of our area, across central and eastern MO which would significantly shift rain chances. While the setup looks more likely for precipitation to make it all the way into MO, the uncertainty of where the boundary will best setup up keeps the PoP forecast fairly broad and marginal at this time. We will have to see how the upper level systems progress to gain confidence in potential forecast outcomes as many hinge on the Friday trough over Canada becoming cut off and stalling over the Great Lakes. Where this high takes up residency will be crucial in determining the east-west progression of frontogenesis. Long range guidance keeps the pattern active bringing multiple perturbations in the upper level flow. This will likely result in fluctuating temperatures oscillating between seasonal normals and values above. This is not entirely uncommon during the transitional seasons and while it might make it difficult to figure out if it is t-shirt or sweater weather (or both), these thermal boundaries boosted by kinematic influences may present some opportunities for rain allowing us to slowly lessen the continuing seasonal precipitation deficit across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Isolated updrafts due to subtle sprinkles and showers are possible across the region for the next couple of hours. Winds remain generally southeast with some gusts during the afternoon hours. Winds dissipate after sunset. CIGs remain VFR with some SCT low clouds enveloped by BKN to OVC clouds around 7000 ft. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Pesel DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Pesel