FXUS63 KEAX 081754

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Issued at 233 AM CST FRI DEC 8 2023

Key Messages:

- Showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, today for mainly the
southeastern third to half of the forecast area.

- Seasonal temperatures through the weekend, then warmer for mid to
late next week.


An upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest today, pushing it's associated cold front
southeastward into the forecast area. Strong low-level flow will
advect moisture northward into the this front. Another upper-level
shortwave trough will then move out of the Rockies and into the
central Plains and provide larger scale forcing for ascent so that
showers become widespread by this evening. There is a small
chance for thunderstorms in our far southeastern to eastern zones
this afternoon and this evening. Instability will be lacking
though and the latest SREF only shows low probabilities of MUCAPE
exceeding 100 J/kg in our far southeast. Additionally, effective
shear will be weak to marginal with what looks like a stable
boundary layer and elevated convective environment in the
forecast area. Given the lack of instability, the chances for
storms looks very low and the weak effective shear adds to the
unfavorable environment for storms. Given all this, it looks far
more likely we'll see showers this afternoon and evening and have
maintained categorical PoPs (80-90%) in our southern and eastern
zones. Rain moves east of the area by early Saturday morning,
leading to a dry forecast for the weekend with seasonal

Broad but strong upper ridging will begin to build into the western
CONUS early next week. That upper ridging will spread eastward
through the middle to later portions of next week. That will
allow temperatures to warm above normal by Wednesday but more
likely into Thursday and Friday. Confidence is high that this
upper ridging will develop. WPC cluster analysis for late next
week shows good agreement amongst the various ensemble suites.
The magnitude is a little more uncertain though and as a result,
forecast temperatures are only modestly above normal. The
uncertainty in the forecast shows up well when looking at the
spread at individual sites. The NBM 1D viewer for Kansas City
shows a nearly 10 degree F spread between the 25th and 75th
percentiles for high temperatures next week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 8 2023

At 18Z warm air advection showers are moving north across eastern
KS into western MO. These showers are expected to linger through
the afternoon/evening. Isolated thunder may be possible south of
I-70. MVFR ceilings are expected along and south of a line from
the KC metro to Kirksville through 06Z tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. Tomorrow, winds are expected to increase
shortly after sunrise Saturday as winds aloft mix down to the