FXUS63 KEAX 081754 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 .Discussion... Issued at 233 AM CST FRI DEC 8 2023 Key Messages: - Showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, today for mainly the southeastern third to half of the forecast area. - Seasonal temperatures through the weekend, then warmer for mid to late next week. Discussion: An upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, pushing it's associated cold front southeastward into the forecast area. Strong low-level flow will advect moisture northward into the this front. Another upper-level shortwave trough will then move out of the Rockies and into the central Plains and provide larger scale forcing for ascent so that showers become widespread by this evening. There is a small chance for thunderstorms in our far southeastern to eastern zones this afternoon and this evening. Instability will be lacking though and the latest SREF only shows low probabilities of MUCAPE exceeding 100 J/kg in our far southeast. Additionally, effective shear will be weak to marginal with what looks like a stable boundary layer and elevated convective environment in the forecast area. Given the lack of instability, the chances for storms looks very low and the weak effective shear adds to the unfavorable environment for storms. Given all this, it looks far more likely we'll see showers this afternoon and evening and have maintained categorical PoPs (80-90%) in our southern and eastern zones. Rain moves east of the area by early Saturday morning, leading to a dry forecast for the weekend with seasonal temperatures. Broad but strong upper ridging will begin to build into the western CONUS early next week. That upper ridging will spread eastward through the middle to later portions of next week. That will allow temperatures to warm above normal by Wednesday but more likely into Thursday and Friday. Confidence is high that this upper ridging will develop. WPC cluster analysis for late next week shows good agreement amongst the various ensemble suites. The magnitude is a little more uncertain though and as a result, forecast temperatures are only modestly above normal. The uncertainty in the forecast shows up well when looking at the spread at individual sites. The NBM 1D viewer for Kansas City shows a nearly 10 degree F spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles for high temperatures next week. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 8 2023 At 18Z warm air advection showers are moving north across eastern KS into western MO. These showers are expected to linger through the afternoon/evening. Isolated thunder may be possible south of I-70. MVFR ceilings are expected along and south of a line from the KC metro to Kirksville through 06Z tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Tomorrow, winds are expected to increase shortly after sunrise Saturday as winds aloft mix down to the surface. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...CDB Aviation...Collier