FXUS64 KEPZ 111701 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1001 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 429 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 Another cold start to the day today, but our high temperatures this afternoon will be a little warmer than what we saw over the weekend. We will be even warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average. For Thursday, we will see a chance for lowland rain and mountain snow showers. Then we will dry back out for Friday and next Saturday, but our high temperatures will run a few degrees below average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 429 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 A zonal flow (west to east) aloft will develop across New Mexico this afternoon and that will help bump up our afternoon high temperatures up a few degrees from what we saw on Sunday. By Tuesday the flow aloft will turn more toward the southwest and that will give us another increase in our high temperatures so that Tuesday and Wednesday's high temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above average. The main weather story for this forecast package will occur on Thursday as an upper level trough will drop across New Mexico. The path of the upper level trough, from the northwest to the southeast, means that the exact track of the trough will make a difference on who gets and who does not get any precipitation. Right now the NAM model has the low furthest to the southwest, while the ECMWF model has the low furthest to the northeast and the GFS model is down the middle between those two solutions. Both the GFS and ECMWF models have backed down ever so slightly on the snow totals in the Sacramento mountains, but a snow total of 3 to 5 inches above 7,000 feet still looks good. If the ECMWF model is more correct those totals will be lower and if the NAM is correct those totals will be higher. And right now the probabilistic and ensemble runs of the models are also leaning more toward the lower side of things. The trough will be a fast mover (another reason to lean toward the lower side of precipitation totals) so that by Friday morning the system will already be to our east. Temperatures on Thursday will be near seasonal averages, while high temperatures on Friday and Saturday, behind the system, will run a few degrees below average. If we don't get much precipitation with Thursday's system, it will likely be a week or more before we see another chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 VFR conditions expected through the period. Thin high clouds will continue moving through the area. Winds will be generally light and VRB. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 429 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 We will have dry, but quiet fire weather conditions through Wednesday. Min RH's will be on the increase over the next 3 days, starting out with the teens in the lowlands to near 20% in area mountains today, to everyone being above 25% by Wednesday. Winds the next three days will be light today and a little breezy by Wednesday, but winds all three days will stay below critical levels. On Thursday, an upper level storm system will bring a chance for lowland rain and mountain snows showers. We could see 3 to 5 inches of snow in the Sacramento Mountains with the best precipitation chances being to the east of the Rio Grande. We will be drier and cooler for the end of the week with min RH's at or above 30%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 34 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 48 30 46 28 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 56 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 59 38 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 59 32 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 31 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 37 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 60 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 39 63 41 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 58 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 60 31 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 61 32 58 29 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 57 31 56 30 / 0 0 0 20 Timberon 55 30 54 29 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 58 29 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 33 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 58 31 59 32 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 62 33 59 32 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 60 33 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 66 35 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 62 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 59 36 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 59 32 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 36 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 41 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$