FXUS64 KEPZ 282333 AAA
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
533 PM MDT Mon Apr 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025
- Seasonal weather with afternoon breezes Tuesday onward.
- Moisture will push into eastern areas for late Friday into
Saturday.
- Chance for strong winds, blowing dust, and critical fire
during the latter part of next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Quieter weather expected through the work week with occasional
breezy conditions. Slow moving upper trough will work it's way
across the region through Wednesday. Afternoon winds will pick up
to 10-20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will be
cooling down to near normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s for the lowlands. Shortwave ridge moves across for Thursday
bringing lighter winds for Thu/Fri with high temperatures warming
up a few degrees.
The most impactful days look to come late Fri into Saturday as
a negatively tilted trough moves into AZ. This will allow for a
westward push of the dryline. GFS has been the most aggressive
with this push west with even it's ensemble mean in good agreement
at least making it to the Continental Divide. Latest EC has
trended further west as well overnight Friday. Given the
orientation of the upper trough and it's strength, think the
further west solution is most likely unlike the push forecast over
this last weekend. The question comes where will there be
precipitation chances. GFS seems to put out too much QPF early Sat
morning. These dryline intrusions don't usually produce much in
the way of precipitation this time of the year during the early
morning hours. Tapered back the NBM PoPs for 06Z-18Z Sat. Entering
the afternoon, moisture will retreat back east, but convection
will be able to fire from around the RGV eastward and have in some
20-40 PoPs(increasing as you head into far eastern CWA).
Moisture will get pushed out of the area for Sunday as a fairly
deep spring low moves into the LAS/LAX area and southwest flow
quickly increases. After a small cool down in eastern areas Sat,
temps will rebound back into the 80s across all the lowlands for
Sunday. Winds will pick up and dust could be an issue once again,
but the exact timing of this will dictate how bad it gets. These
strong upper lows typically will move slower through the SW than
models indicate, especially with no noticeable upstream kicker.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Gusty wly to swly winds will persist through the early hours of
the TAF period. Lcl channels of BLDU are evident on satellite
imagery and brief reductions to MVFR vsbys may exist across
portions of srn NM before sunset, potentially spreading ewd
towards KELP. Winds will diminish aft sunset most terminals.
Breezy conditions will return in the aftn with gusts around 20 kts
common.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Warm and dry conditions will continue to prevail through the week.
RH's will be in the single digits with high temperatures generally
in the upper 70s and 80s for the lowlands. Winds will be low end
breezy through Wednesday with the lightest winds coming Thursday.
At this time, do not expect to issue any fire weather highlights
this week with just some near critical conditions through
Wednesday. Moisture will start to push into the east Friday and
move west toward the Continental Divide by Saturday morning which
brings the chance for some isolated to scattered storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 56 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 55 84 52 78 / 0 10 0 0
Las Cruces 47 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 48 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 35 58 32 55 / 0 0 0 10
Truth or Consequences 46 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 38 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 43 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 40 75 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 54 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 50 85 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 52 88 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 50 76 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 53 86 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 49 80 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 55 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 42 79 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 42 80 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 47 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 49 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 44 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 41 68 37 66 / 0 10 0 10
Timberon 34 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 29 69 31 71 / 0 0 0 10
Hillsboro 44 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 40 78 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 27 69 29 73 / 0 10 0 0
Hurley 38 73 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 29 74 32 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 29 69 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 42 72 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 40 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 43 77 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 44 76 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 44 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99