FXUS64 KEPZ 131729 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1129 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2024 The Borderland will remain warm and dry through at least midweek as we keep a deep dry westerly flow pattern over the region. Temperatures will begin trending downward, but not before likely setting new records this afternoon. Expect plenty of sun, and only few clouds. Winds will remain fairly light through early week. Mid week and beyond we begin to see some moisture creep in as Pacific lows approach from the west. This will mean more clouds, cooler temperatures, breezier afternoons, and && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2024 With high pressure anchored over the Southwestern U.S. we continue warm and dry, with generally light winds. Yesterday we had another day of record setting max temperatures, and it appears we will repeat that today, as forecast highs are 1-2 degrees above records. We will keep dry air in place, with plenty of sunshine and few clouds. The ridge is flattening and weakening as Pacific low pressure aloft begins to work east into the Great Basin. This will lower heights aloft, and begin a slow and gradual cooling trend. This looks to cool temperatures by one or two degrees day to day. That means above normal temperatures through the week ahead, with temperatures down to normal by the upcoming weekend. All week, we will continue with the same dry conditions we have been seeing. Both the GFS and the ECMWF deterministic models are showing a relatively strong backdoor front pushing in Wednesday. Not real cool, but some breezy and gusty E and SE winds, with some Gulf moisture advected in on those winds. Aloft we have a fairly deep longwave trough over the Western U.S. This could set up potential for some WED aft/eve showers/storms. Finally, for late next week we see the GFS and EC models diverge quite rapidly and significantly. The GFS drops in a very deep upper low (probably too strong for the season), while the EC pushes out the earlier mentioned trough with a transition to high pressure building in from the west. This means some uncertainty for our forecast beyond next Saturday. The GFS would suggest unsettled weather, while the EC would bring about fair weather. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the period with FEW250 streaming over central NM. Light southerly afternoon breezes (10-12G16-20KT) can be expected for terminals becoming light and variable overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2024 With some semblance of high pressure over the region through early in the week, we will keep the weather quite warm and very dry, with low daily minimum RH in the 10-15% range, and generally poor overnight RH recovery in the 30% range. With regards to warm temperatures and low moisture fire weather concerns are somewhat elevated for the time of year. The good news is generally light winds due to that same high pressure keeping pressure gradients lose. That is a moderating factor to fire weather concerns through at least midweek. By Wednesday, we will see diminishing high pressure with a Pacific trough inbound from the west. At the same time, a backdoor cool front looks to push in from the east. This will help to cool temperatures back to near average, and also we will see some increases in wind late in the week. In addition we should begin to see some increasing moisture, with more clouds, and rising RH by Wednesday. We could even see the return of isolated precipitation by Wednesday into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 92 60 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 86 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 90 55 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 89 55 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 68 43 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 89 54 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 84 55 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 91 52 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 90 55 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 90 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 90 52 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 93 55 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 84 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 92 56 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 89 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 89 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 53 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 92 52 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 89 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 54 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 80 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 79 47 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 76 45 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 81 45 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 88 52 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 89 51 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 84 50 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 86 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 93 46 90 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 87 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 85 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 92 53 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 89 51 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 89 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 86 56 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher