FXUS64 KEWX 131113
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
613 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
The subtropical high continues to be the main player across our
region keeping conditions dry. Temperatures are currently in the 70s
across the area with slightly higher dewpoints keeping temps a bit
warmer than previous nights. A weak frontal boundary associated with
a trough well to our northeast will move near the region to our
north this afternoon. Some compressional warming ahead of this
boundary is expected and highs in the northern Hill Country and
Travis County area could be near the century mark this afternoon.
This would be record heat for the day if this verifies. If Camp
Mabry does hit the 100 degree mark today it would also mark the
latest 100 degree day on record, beating the old value of October
2nd set in 1938 and 1923.
In addition to the heat, humidity values will bottom out in the
teens and 20s across the area. Wind will be on the lighter side, but
could be enough to warrant the mention of elevated fire weather
conditions for most of the area. Will issue a Grassfire Danger
Statement to cover that.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s with mostly clear skies. Elevated
dewpoints will creep into the Coastal Plains where some patchy fog
will be possible. The weak boundary will likely push into the area
somewhat on Monday which should put high temps back into the lower
to middle 90s for most locations. With the slightly drier air Monday
night, lows will be back in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
An upper level ridge will be holding on over Texas at the start of
the long term Monday night. This will lead to another unseasonably
warm day Tuesday with high temperatures in the 90s across most of the
CWA. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front backdoor its way into
South-Central Texas from the northeast. The front will lack moisture
and much upper level support and will not produce any rain. However,
it will bring relief from the very warm temperatures. Highs Wednesday
will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Northeasterly to easterly
low level flow behind the front will continue to bring cooler air,
and highs Thursday will be another five degrees cooler. The front
will stall near the Texas/Mexico border and the easterly low level
flow will bring moister air to the region. This will lead to low
chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoons and
evenings Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be fairly
steady during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mostly clear
skies. Winds will continue to be from the south/southwest with speeds
mainly less than 11 knots. Otherwise, no major impacts are expected
during this TAF cycle.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15
Austin Bergstrom: 98 (1991) 95 (2015) 95 (2019)
Austin Camp Mabry: 97 (1991) 96 (2015) 96 (2019)
San Antonio: 97 (1991) 95 (2015) 95 (1962/1931)
Del Rio: 97 (1910) 98 (2020) 99 (2009)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 100 65 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 63 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 63 98 62 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 99 64 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 99 65 97 65 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 100 64 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 97 62 96 61 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 98 62 96 61 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 63 95 61 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 97 66 96 65 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 99 65 97 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...29
Long-Term...05
Aviation...29