FXUS62 KFFC 121054 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 654 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 417 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 A broad upper trough will dig over the E U.S. through the weekend. At the surface, a high pressure ridge over the SE U.S. will weaken and shift S. A cold front will approach NW GA by Sunday evening. After a cool morning today, daytime highs will rebound into the upper 70s across most of the area, with highs in the lower 70s in the NE mountains. Low temperatures tonight will drop mostly into the lower to mid 50s, with upper 40s in the NE. High temperatures on Sunday will climb a few more degrees, with readings ranging from the mid 70s in the NE to the lower to mid 80s elsewhere. No precipitation is expected, but a few light showers may approach the TN/GA border late Sunday. /SEC && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 417 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 No significant weather impacts or forecast concerns expected in the long term period. Dry weather still expected to continue through Friday. NW flow pattern expected to persist through Thurs morning at which point global ensembles still indicate troughing over the western CONUS and associated SW flow downstream over the southeast, bringing warmer temps and a bit more moisture...eventually. Confidence on evolution of western CONUS trough beyond Thursday now quite low with many GEFS members showing more amplified pattern esp with western CONUS trough and a few members showing a cutoff low developing over the SWUS. EC and GEPS members have a more open and progressive wave. Regardless will be some time beyond day 7 before any chance of precip occurs. If GEFS solutions are correct, may be after day 10 before rain chances return. Any tropical activity in the Atlantic basin still not expected to affect the CONUS through 7 days. Only feature of interest remains strong shortwave forecast to zip down in strong NW flow aloft over the Midwest Monday and through the eastern states on Tuesday. Subsidence behind this wave and front will be very strong with fairly gusty winds. Temps haven't trended down much, but still well below climatology, esp on Wednesday with max temps 7 to 10 degrees below normal; same for min temps Thurs morning. NBM does indicate up to 75% probabilities of below freezing min temps in parts of southern Fannin County with lower probs (10- 25%) over the surrounding valleys of NE GA. Continued mention of frost in these areas for Tues, Wed and Thurs mornings. Reviewing climate data for Blairsville Ag Station which has a period of record back to 1933, the average first Fall freeze there is Oct 12, the earliest on record was Sep 14, 1953 and the latest was Nov 14, 1936. For comparison, the Atlanta area average first Fall freeze is Nov 13. SNELSON && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the period. However, there may be some patchy, mostly shallow fog early this morning. Winds will be light and variable to calm at night, with light westerly winds during the day. Skies will be mostly clear with no precipitation expected. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High for all elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 83 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 55 83 62 74 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 49 78 54 65 / 0 0 10 0 Cartersville 53 84 59 72 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 54 81 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 52 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 52 85 56 72 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 52 82 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 54 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....SNELSON AVIATION...SEC