FXUS63 KFGF 172335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024


Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon Friday
through Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated.


Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Surface high pressure remains over the FA, with light winds and
a diminishing cumulus field. Winds will stay light overnight and
the remaining cumulus should fade away by sunset.


Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024


Weak high pressure system will be in control today and
Thursday. Low some low based cumulus development will continue each
day as some low level moisture becomes trapped under the high
pressure. Due to the low pressure system spinning over the great
lakes the cumulus development will become more dense the further
east into the northern half of Minnesota one can go. There may be a
couple drops of rain as the clouds thicken in the afternoon but
nothing measurable is expected.

Friday through Tuesday

A weak upper level wave is expected to transit through the Northern
Plains Friday giving us the chance for isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. Looking at 850mb and 700mb Frontogensis and
Temperature advection look to be marginal and insufficient to
develop forcing strong enough to produce severe thunderstorms. Bulk
Shear looks to remain around 20-30kts which is sufficient to develop
the garden variety thunderstorms but not enough to really gives us
the environment to sustain anything more than that. QPF Probs for
greater than 0.25 inches is than 30 percent or lower.


Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Light winds and clear skies are anticipated overnight. By mid to
late Thursday morning through the afternoon, winds will turn
around to the south (but remain pretty light) and a FEW-SCT
cumulus should develop again.