FXUS63 KFGF 111742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023


- Winds increase this morning, with the peak during the passage
  of the cold front this afternoon and evening. Slight chances
  (20%) for snow along the front, with wind gusts approaching
  35kts in eastern ND and 30kts within the Red River Valley.
  Patchy blowing/drifting snow will be possible (20%) during the
  afternoon and into the overnight period. Visibilities may be
  restricted at times.

- Ridge builds eastward mid week, with a transition to NW flow
  by the weekend. There is a chance for a few shortwaves to move
  along the NW flow aloft bringing trailing cold fronts. This
  would increase the chances for windy conditions and the
  chances for light precip.


Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Areas to widespread fog continues to affect the Red River Valley and
into the Devils Lake Basin. Current guidance has the fog lingering
through the early morning before winds start to increase and push
the fog out of the region. There is a chance (30%) the winds have
little affect on the fog this morning and we could see it continue
into the early afternoon before the cold front approaches. Areas
under the fog are seeing restrictions to visibility down to a
quarter of a mile or less. Upstream in central ND we are seeing the
visibilities improve slowly.

A short wave moves along the NW flow aloft bringing a trailing cold
front to ND and MN. As the front shifts through winds will increase,
with gusts up to 35kts in the Devils Lake Basin towards the Red
River Valley. Areas east of the River within the Red River Valley
may see gusts up to 30kts. Weak Frontogentic forcing and moisture
along the front may bring the slight chance (20%) for light snow
showers to the area. Winds combined with the light snow showers may
reduce visibilities briefly at times to a couple miles. Otherwise,
without falling snow there is a chance (20%) for patchy
blowing/drifting snow across eastern ND and into the Red River
Valley. This is based on the recent snowpack across the area.
Uncertainty arises with the blowability of the snowpack and if it
can be lofted into the air. Most likely (70% chance) there could be
pillow drifts across the area. We will continue to monitor the winds
and the snowpack to see if its able to be lofted fully into the air
and restrict visibilities.

Lingering patchy blowing/drifting snow will be possible during the
morning hours on Tuesday, with conditions improving by the late
morning and early afternoon. Seasonal average temperatures on
Tuesday turn toward above normal by Wednesday as a ridge builds
eastward for the middle of the week. NBM guidance has shifted highs
on Thursday towards the lower 40s, but with recent snowpack in the
north we may only see the low to mid 30s where snowpack is above 2

Towards the end of the week and into the weekend flow turns back
toward the NW  with the potential for shortwaves to move through the
region. At this times, moisture content is lacking and forcing is
rather weak. Clusters have tended to be drier across the region (70%
of them), with 30% of them showing weak snow showers. With these
shortwaves we could see cold fronts sweeping through bringing
further chances for windy conditions. Otherwise expect temperatures
to remain above normal, with highs in the 30s.


Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

IFR stratus clearing out from west to east, with the Red River
counties scattering out in the last hour. There is still some
linger BR, and as winds kicking up some blowing snow is not out
of the question, but think that vis will stay in the 3-5SM range
at worst. Stratus will hang on a bit longer at the MN airports,
and after a bit of a break, there will be some MVFR clouds
coming in later this afternoon and evening as a system digs into
northern MN. Conditions should be VFR at all sites by tomorrow
morning. Winds will shift around from the southwest to the
northwest as a cold front comes down, with some gusts up into
the 25 to 30 kt range this afternoon and evening. Winds will
diminish to around 15 kts by the end of the period, but stay out
of the northwest.