FXUS63 KFGF 250902 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 402 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Monday with temperatures well above normal Sunday-Monday. - Tuesday and beyond next week shows high uncertainity in regards to precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...Synopsis... West-northwest flow at 500 mb turns more southwest over the weekend and remains that way thru much of next week. Warmer air moves in Sunday-Monday, then much uncertainity in regards to short waves/lows and precipitation chances Tuesday of next week and beyond. ...Today-Monday.... High pressure will move from southern Saskatchewan into eastern North Dakota, western Minnesota tonight, then southeast of the area on Saturday. Look for a NW breeze today. Some bands of high clouds will move through but overall anticipate a mostly sunny day and highs in the low-mid 50s, a few degrees above normal. Clear with light winds tonight and lows in the 20s. South- southeast wind increases to 10-20 mph by Saturday afternoon and temps will nudge a few degrees higher. Though with warm advection do anticipate some mid/high clouds on Saturday. Sunnier Sunday and mostly sunny and mild on Monday with southwest winds 10-20 mph and highs mid 60s north to mid 70s south, some 20 degrees above normal. Dew pts are not excessively low during the warmup with mid 30s to mid 40s, and thus lowest RH values Monday afternoon at peak heating will be mid 30s SE ND to 45-50 percent NW MN. Not low enough for mention of near critical fire weather at this time. ...Rest of Next Week... 500 mb flow will be predominately southwest and with that we start to look at increased moisture and potential short waves, fronts moving thru. The period around Oct 30-31 has remained uncertain, but trends are clustering around the idea of a positively tilted 500 mb trough from Wisconsin to Colorado and rain area near the axis of this trough. This would put higher chances of any rain Oct 30-31 southeast parts of the fcst area. At the tail end of the 7 day forecast toward Nov 1-2 uncertainity is very high and look at 00z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate little consitency. Thus predictability on what may occur in terms of precipitation is very low. Every day or two one of the longer range models (GFS, ECMWF, or GEM) indicate an upper low and rain system for parts of our area and for the 00z model suite it was the operational ECMWF. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 The patchy fog that has formed so far tonight has only been in the Fergus Falls and Elbow Lake areas, and should not affect any of the TAF sites. Therefore, there is no impactful weather anticipated for the next 24 hours. Wind speeds look to remain in the 5 to 10 mph range overnight, then pick up and become a bit gusty Friday afternoon, before dropping quickly again in the late afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Godon