FXUS65 KFGZ 210223
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
723 PM MST Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and much warmer weather is on the way for the rest
of the week. Winds will be light through Wednesday, then become
gusty Thursday through Saturday.

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.UPDATE...No changes needed, going forecast package looks good.

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.PREV DISCUSSION /346 PM MST/...Over the coming days a dry and mild west to
southwest flow aloft will set up over Arizona. Look for mainly
clear skies, warm daytime temperatures and breezy afternoon winds
each day. The only factor of consequence will be a dry shortwave
trough moving across the area from Thursday into Saturday when
afternoon breezes will gain a little extra steam, raising the
fire weather threat.

For the remainder of today through Wednesday...Light and variable
terrain driven winds overnight will become southwest to west at 10
to 20 mph Wednesday afternoon. Daytime high temperatures will
warm by around 5 degrees compared to Tuesday with near average
overnight lows. Skies will remain mainly clear.

Thursday through Saturday...A dry shortwave trough will approach
Arizona on Thursday and Friday then move across the area Friday
night into Saturday. The main influence of the trough will be
stronger afternoon breezes. Thursday will see afternoon southwest
winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Friday will likely see
the strongest winds just ahead trough axis passage with southwest
winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph. The trough heads
eastward on Saturday leaving behind west to southwest winds at 10
to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Daytime highs will cool a bit on
Friday and Saturday in association with the trough with just a few
high and mid level clouds anticipated with passage.

From Sunday onward... High pressure will build over Arizona
resulting in lighter afternoon winds and potentially the warmest
daytime temperatures so far this year. Associated with the
building high, Limited moisture from over both the Gulf of
California and the other gulf could sneak across eastern Arizona.
Something we'll be keeping any eye on because thunderstorm chances
could enter the forecast for next week.

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.AVIATION...Wednesday 21/00Z through Thursday 22/00Z...VFR
conditions expected to persist. Variable winds 5-10 kts forecast
until 18Z, becoming SW 5-15 kts afterwards. Local reduced
visibilities possible from fire activity.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 22/00Z through Saturday 24/00Z...VFR conditions
forecast to continue, with locally reduced visibilities from fire
activity. Overnight winds should be light and variable, with
afternoon winds Thursday and Friday out of the SW at 10-20 kts,
gusting 30-40 kts.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Warm and dry conditions
forecast to continue. Daytime highs will land 5-10 degrees above
normal and minimum RH values will mostly be below 15%. Look for
south-southwest winds 5-15 mph on Wednesday afternoon, increasing to
10-20 mph on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Warm and very dry. Southwest winds 10 to 20
mph with gusts to between 30 and 35 mph Friday and Saturday. Light
and variable winds on Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions will
be possible, especially Friday. Daytime minimum relative humidity 5
to 10 percent each afternoon, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart/McCollum
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff