FXUS65 KFGZ 111742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1042 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly quiet weather and cool temperatures will
persist through the period. A weather disturbance may bring rain
and snow showers to eastern Arizona midweek.


.UPDATE...Abundant high cloud cover this morning is an indication
of saturation aloft, but conditions at the ground remain very dry.
For the rest of the day, expect mild temperatures, light winds, and
continued high cloud cover. The current forecast is in good shape
and only minor updates were made to the wind and sky grids.


.PREV DISCUSSION /359 AM MST/...High pressure aloft was heading
eastward during the early morning hours in advance of a developing
low pressure system over the western states. Temperatures will
remain seasonably mild today and Tuesday. However, the position of
the high in relation to the developing low will draw a decent amount
of high cloudiness from over the subtropics across Arizona. The
developing low will strengthen surface pressure gradients enough for
the development of south to southwest winds by Tuesday with
afternoon gusts of 15 to 25 mph from about Flagstaff eastward.

For Wednesday and Thursday...A mid- to upper-level jet max will
dive southward across the western states. The decent vertical
motion associated with this jet max will help spin-up a closed-low
over Nevada and Utah which will then dive southward across
Arizona. The primary impact will be cooler daytime temperatures
and the development of north to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph as
a cold front sweeps from north to south across the area. The air
mass across Arizona will be on the dry side but circulation around
the low will draw some moisture into Arizona from over New Mexico
and Texas. The result will be a 20% to 40% chance of showers
(snow above 7000 feet) near the Arizona/New Mexico border. Still
not out of the question we could see a few snow flurries/light
showers as far west as Flagstaff from Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday but at this time those chances will be less than
15%. In any case rather light accumulations are forecast whether
it be rain or snow.

Starting Friday and heading into next weekend...High pressure
returns for moderating temperatures and fair weather conditions.


.AVIATION...Monday 11/18Z through Tuesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions
and light winds.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 12/18Z through Thursday 14/18Z...Localized MVFR
conditions will be possible in SHRA/SHSN along and east of a KBDG-
KSOW line after 18Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.
Look for S winds 5-15 kts Tuesday, becoming NE-SE on Wednesday.


.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry, with above normal daytime
temperatures. Higher elevations will actually be warmer than some
lower elevations, due to persistent inversions. Generally light and
variable winds, but trending south through southwest 10-20 mph over
the higher terrain in the afternoons.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures cool to around normal for
Wednesday and Thursday, then rebound a bit Friday. Winds will become
northeasterly 5-15 mph through the period, stronger gusts downwind
of higher terrain. A chance of rain and snow showers develops
Wednesday and Wednesday night, over the eastern zones.






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