FXUS65 KFGZ 210223 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 723 PM MST Tue May 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and much warmer weather is on the way for the rest of the week. Winds will be light through Wednesday, then become gusty Thursday through Saturday. && .UPDATE...No changes needed, going forecast package looks good. && .PREV DISCUSSION /346 PM MST/...Over the coming days a dry and mild west to southwest flow aloft will set up over Arizona. Look for mainly clear skies, warm daytime temperatures and breezy afternoon winds each day. The only factor of consequence will be a dry shortwave trough moving across the area from Thursday into Saturday when afternoon breezes will gain a little extra steam, raising the fire weather threat. For the remainder of today through Wednesday...Light and variable terrain driven winds overnight will become southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph Wednesday afternoon. Daytime high temperatures will warm by around 5 degrees compared to Tuesday with near average overnight lows. Skies will remain mainly clear. Thursday through Saturday...A dry shortwave trough will approach Arizona on Thursday and Friday then move across the area Friday night into Saturday. The main influence of the trough will be stronger afternoon breezes. Thursday will see afternoon southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Friday will likely see the strongest winds just ahead trough axis passage with southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph. The trough heads eastward on Saturday leaving behind west to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Daytime highs will cool a bit on Friday and Saturday in association with the trough with just a few high and mid level clouds anticipated with passage. From Sunday onward... High pressure will build over Arizona resulting in lighter afternoon winds and potentially the warmest daytime temperatures so far this year. Associated with the building high, Limited moisture from over both the Gulf of California and the other gulf could sneak across eastern Arizona. Something we'll be keeping any eye on because thunderstorm chances could enter the forecast for next week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 21/00Z through Thursday 22/00Z...VFR conditions expected to persist. Variable winds 5-10 kts forecast until 18Z, becoming SW 5-15 kts afterwards. Local reduced visibilities possible from fire activity. OUTLOOK...Thursday 22/00Z through Saturday 24/00Z...VFR conditions forecast to continue, with locally reduced visibilities from fire activity. Overnight winds should be light and variable, with afternoon winds Thursday and Friday out of the SW at 10-20 kts, gusting 30-40 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Warm and dry conditions forecast to continue. Daytime highs will land 5-10 degrees above normal and minimum RH values will mostly be below 15%. Look for south-southwest winds 5-15 mph on Wednesday afternoon, increasing to 10-20 mph on Thursday. Friday through Sunday...Warm and very dry. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to between 30 and 35 mph Friday and Saturday. Light and variable winds on Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, especially Friday. Daytime minimum relative humidity 5 to 10 percent each afternoon, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Bernhart/McCollum AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff