FXUS65 KFGZ 111742 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1042 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Mostly quiet weather and cool temperatures will persist through the period. A weather disturbance may bring rain and snow showers to eastern Arizona midweek. && .UPDATE...Abundant high cloud cover this morning is an indication of saturation aloft, but conditions at the ground remain very dry. For the rest of the day, expect mild temperatures, light winds, and continued high cloud cover. The current forecast is in good shape and only minor updates were made to the wind and sky grids. && .PREV DISCUSSION /359 AM MST/...High pressure aloft was heading eastward during the early morning hours in advance of a developing low pressure system over the western states. Temperatures will remain seasonably mild today and Tuesday. However, the position of the high in relation to the developing low will draw a decent amount of high cloudiness from over the subtropics across Arizona. The developing low will strengthen surface pressure gradients enough for the development of south to southwest winds by Tuesday with afternoon gusts of 15 to 25 mph from about Flagstaff eastward. For Wednesday and Thursday...A mid- to upper-level jet max will dive southward across the western states. The decent vertical motion associated with this jet max will help spin-up a closed-low over Nevada and Utah which will then dive southward across Arizona. The primary impact will be cooler daytime temperatures and the development of north to northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph as a cold front sweeps from north to south across the area. The air mass across Arizona will be on the dry side but circulation around the low will draw some moisture into Arizona from over New Mexico and Texas. The result will be a 20% to 40% chance of showers (snow above 7000 feet) near the Arizona/New Mexico border. Still not out of the question we could see a few snow flurries/light showers as far west as Flagstaff from Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday but at this time those chances will be less than 15%. In any case rather light accumulations are forecast whether it be rain or snow. Starting Friday and heading into next weekend...High pressure returns for moderating temperatures and fair weather conditions. && .AVIATION...Monday 11/18Z through Tuesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions and light winds. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 12/18Z through Thursday 14/18Z...Localized MVFR conditions will be possible in SHRA/SHSN along and east of a KBDG- KSOW line after 18Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Look for S winds 5-15 kts Tuesday, becoming NE-SE on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry, with above normal daytime temperatures. Higher elevations will actually be warmer than some lower elevations, due to persistent inversions. Generally light and variable winds, but trending south through southwest 10-20 mph over the higher terrain in the afternoons. Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures cool to around normal for Wednesday and Thursday, then rebound a bit Friday. Winds will become northeasterly 5-15 mph through the period, stronger gusts downwind of higher terrain. A chance of rain and snow showers develops Wednesday and Wednesday night, over the eastern zones. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji/McCollum AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff