FXUS65 KFGZ 270221 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 721 PM MST Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A dry weather system will bring cooler temperatures and elevated winds today and tomorrow. Gusts are from the southwest up to 35-45 mph each day. Warmer temperatures and lighter winds are expected next week, with a slight chance of afternoon showers over the high country Tuesday and Thursday. && .UPDATE...No updates to the current forecast package. Today's Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning have been allowed to expire. However winds remain elevated and humidity remains low on Sunday, so the Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory return tomorrow at 10am although the Wind Advisory will be more focused on the eastern parts of the state then it was today, mainly on the upper parts of the Little Colorado River Valley and White Mountains. && .PREV DISCUSSION /434 PM MST/...A deep low pressure system is currently located over south-central California, and will follow a northeastward track through this weekend. The cyclone will move through Nevada and Utah, and any associated precipitation will track just north of Arizona. The primary impacts from this system will be cooler temperatures and elevated winds. Daytime temperatures become 5-15 degrees below average by Sunday. Wind will be out of the southwest at 15-30 gusting up to 35-45 mph today and tomorrow. Strong winds are widespread across northern AZ today, then become more localized to east-central AZ tomorrow. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect today for much of northern AZ, and tomorrow for the eastern Little Colorado River Valley and White Mountains. Low humidity will accompany these winds, bringing areas of critical fire weather especially where fuels are driest in the White Mountains and north/east of the Mogollon Rim. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for these locations through this afternoon, and again tomorrow. Winds look to settle down starting Monday, with a gradual warming trend through Friday. Lingering troughing earlier in the week will keep temperatures near normal and carry mid-upper level moisture to northern AZ. Combined with modest CAPE, this results in a potential for high-based convective showers throughout the week. The best chances are on Tuesday and Thursday, with PoPs up to 15-25%. && .AVIATION...Sunday 27/00Z through Monday 28/00Z...VFR conditions are forecast. Winds south to southwest at 15-25 kts with gusts from 30-40 kts through about 02Z. Winds decrease later this evening but remain 10-20 kts overnight. Areas of low level wind shear are likely along the Mogollon Rim from KFLG to KSOW between 07Z-14Z. Winds increase again after 16Z, becoming southwest at 15-25 kts gusting to 35 kts, especially from KFLG eastward. OUTLOOK...Monday 28/00Z through Wednesday 30/00Z...Look for VFR conditions. Winds diminishing Sunday evening, then west to southwest at 5-15 kts Monday and Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Windy, dry and cooler conditions are in the forecast for Sunday. Look for another round of low humidity and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph across portions of eastern Arizona, with a Red Flag Warning in effect. For Monday, expect mild temperatures with lighter west to southwest wind at 5-15 mph. Tuesday through Thursday...Expect west to southwest winds at 5-15 mph and warmer temperatures each day. Tuesday and Thursday will see a 10-20% chance for a high-based shower or thunderstorm, mainly over the higher terrain. Any shower activity could result in gusty outflow winds with only light precipitation. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ111>114-117-140. Wind Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ013-014-017. && $$ PUBLIC...Bernhart/Lewandowski AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff