FXUS63 KFSD 080810 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 310 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today. - Much above normal temperatures Monday through Friday with dry conditions. - Increased chances for showers and storms Friday night into Saturday. Low confidence in areal coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Southerly flow will gradually increase through the day but gusts should be less than 20 mph in most locations. The low level thermal field warms today which will lead to warmer high temperatures. Expect highs 80 to 85 west of I-29 and near 80 near and east of I-29. Low temperatures tonight will also be warmer as southerly flow continues to increase. Expect most locations to bottom out from 55 to 60 degrees. Flat upper level ridging spreads across the area Monday into Wednesday. A weak wave will move through the area but right now dry air dominates in the soundings so any instability that does exist is thoroughly capped. At best on Tuesday there could be a few sprinkles as instability based around 12-15 kft could generate a few very elevated showers but with CAPE values less than 50 J/kg there will likely not be enough to produce precipitation that will punch through the dry air below. Highs both Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with morning lows warming into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday morning. Wednesday into Thursday will see strengthening upper level ridging just east of the area as upper level troughing deepens to the west. This will keep the very warm conditions in place with breezy conditions, especially on Thursday where gusts could be 30 to 35 mph. Friday into Saturday should see the upper level trough to the west swing northeast across the Western High Plains and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms into the area. This time around the models are swinging this energy a bit more northward which may make it more difficult to get any showers or thunderstorms to develop across the area. For now, chances will remain low into next weekend, but the better chances will be Friday night into Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024 Patchy, shallow fog may develop in river valleys late tonight through daybreak Sunday, with a couple of sites already briefly dropping to MVFR visibility. Have omitted from sites for now given the patchy and shallow nature of the fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with cirrus clouds and wildfire smoke aloft. Winds generally will be southerly through Sunday night. Light winds increase with mixing tomorrow to around 10 knots sustained and gusts around 15 knots. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...SG