FXUS64 KFWD 071058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Minor adjustments were made to today's wind forecast to account for the latest guidance. Wind gusts will approach 25 mph, subsiding around sunset. Overall, the forecast through the rest of the weekend will remain fairly quiet with afternoon highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday Evening/ Key Messages: - No precipitation is expected this weekend with below normal temperatures throughout the region. - Gusty north/northeasterly winds will develop this afternoon. ------------------------------------------------------------------ A cold front is slowly making its way south across our region, ushering in much drier air compared to the last few days. Precipitation is no longer on the radar, and a dry forecast will persist through the next few days. North and Central Texas will be wedged between a surface high developing in the Texas Panhandle and a low currently deepening in the western Gulf of Mexico. With the tightening pressure gradient, gusty winds will develop this afternoon, then lighten up closer to sunset. Sustained wind speeds will range between 15-20 mph with gusts between 25-30 mph in some locations. Plenty of sunshine will be in place today, helping to drive temperatures into the mid to upper 80s areawide. As winds subside this evening, the dry airmass and clear skies will promote efficient radiational cooling. By Sunday morning, temperatures are expected to be in the 50s throughout much of North and Central Texas. The one exception will be within the immediate Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex where the Heat Island Effect will keep temperatures in the lower 60s. With northwesterly winds continuing into the day on Sunday, afternoon temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s. Clear skies will prevail with wind speeds generally between 10-15 mph. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 405 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024/ /Next Week/ The coolest morning of this early-season frontal intrusion will be on Monday when clear skies combine with light winds and low humidity. Precipitable water values will reach their postfrontal minimum under 1/2 inch, the driest column since spring and among the lowest on record for this early in the season. This will maximize radiational cooling, allowing some low-lying spots to dip into the 40s. Even DFW Airport could see temperatures fall below 60F. In the last 3 decades, there have only been 4 years during which DFW has fallen into the 50s this early in the season. Despite the cool start to the day and lingering easterly and northeasterly winds, abundant sunshine and an unseasonably dry boundary layer should allow Monday's high temperatures to exceed Sunday's, albeit by a small margin. This warming trend will reach its peak on Tuesday when daytime temperatures across Northeast Texas may exceed seasonal normals. Increasing cloud cover and the return of rain chances will restrain daytime temperatures the remainder of the week, but as Gulf moisture also returns, overnight/morning temperatures will be above normal. Texas will be underneath a col between a ridge off the West Coast and another over Florida. The subtropical jet will guide a mid-level disturbance from Mexico into this weakness aloft. The resulting depression will linger overhead, maintaining a period of unsettled weather. The main corridor of moist advection and lift will be confined to the Gulf Coast, with a sharp moisture gradient across our region. As a result, the rain chances mid to late week will be primarily across Central and East Texas. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12 TAFs/ Northeasterly winds and VFR will continue across all TAF sites through the entirety of this forecast cycle. As we head into the afternoon, breezy northeasterly winds are expected as a few gusts approach 25 knots. The breezy conditions will subside after sunset leaving behind continued northeasterly winds between 5-10 knots. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 61 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 85 58 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 82 55 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 84 57 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 85 56 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 86 61 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 84 57 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 86 59 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 86 59 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 86 57 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$