FXUS64 KFWD 111719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1119 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Tuesday/

Quiet weather will continue through Tuesday as we await the
arrival of our next storm system later this week. Sunny skies are
expected today with south to southeast winds and afternoon
temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s. Tonight will be
another chilly night, though we'll start to see a few clouds move
in from the west beginning this evening. The increase in cloud
cover along with a slight increase in low-level moisture will
keep overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, with only a
few locations east of I-35 expected to fall into the low 30s.

Similar weather is expected on Tuesday, but a deepening upper
level trough over the western CONUS will bring a steady stream of
Pacific moisture into North and Central Texas. As a result, dense
cirrus will increase across the region throughout the day, which
will keep temperatures very close to today's values.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 324 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/
/Tuesday Night through Sunday/

A progressive belt of upper level flow will become situated
across Canada, while a large blocking cut-off low will develop
over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The result will be split flow
aloft and an upper level low will close off over the Great Basin
Tuesday night and slowly lumber southeastward toward the
state...not passing through until late in the weekend. A
reflection of the slow movement of features aloft means that a
surface high pressure will take up residence over the eastern U.S.
ensuring a persistent cool easterly flow at the surface here.
With the approach of the upper level low, the quality moisture
return will be restricted below 850mb. However, strong isentropic
lift and decent mid level moisture will coincide in the western
zones late Wednesday and gradually spread into the I-35 corridor
by Thursday night. Widespread rains should prevail across most of
the area Friday and Friday night, before tapering off from west to
east on Saturday.

Given the limited low level moisture/instability returning to the
region, the severe weather threat is nil and even the potential
for thunderstorms is rather limited. Rainfall amounts however
could be noteworthy due to the persistent fire hose of lift over
the region...especially across western and southern zones. Median
QPF values from the ensembles range from 3 inches south of I-20
and I-35 to less than an half inch over the northeast zones.
However, to say that there is high confidence in high amounts of
widespread rainfall at this stage would be a gamble as there is
significant spread in the forecast totals. There is a 10% chance
of little or no rain in our CWA on the dry end of the spectrum
and a 10% chance of up to 10 inches on the flip side. For now the
forecast will feature our best chances of rain on Friday. Until
there is better consensus, we will hold off on advertising a heavy
rain event for now, and show rainfall totals of near 2 inches in
the southwest zones tapering off to just a quarter inch in the

With the increased cloud cover and likely rainfall, high
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to low 60s through the
period (with the exception of Friday where more significant rain
would keep us chilly and in the upper 40s to mid 50s). Lows will
be steady in the 40s through the week into the weekend.



/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south to southeast winds near 10 knots or less will
continue through the period. Cirrus will begin streaming into the
region tonight, with an increase in upper level clouds expected
throughout the day Tuesday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  40  62  45  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                63  37  64  45  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               59  34  60  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              62  35  62  41  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            61  35  62  40  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              63  40  62  44  60 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             61  36  62  40  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  39  65  43  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              63  37  65  45  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       66  36  64  45  59 /   0   0   0   5  20