FXUS64 KFWD 191914 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A relatively active pattern is starting to take shape over North and Central Texas for the next several days. A cold front is currently moving through North Texas that has a somewhat impressive temperature gradient associated with it. The temperature in Bowie is in the mid 50s, while the remainder of the CWA ahead of the front has temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. Expect the front to slowly move south this afternoon and eventually stall south of I-20 this evening. Additional outflow boundaries should allow for a few storms to develop across Western Central Texas later in the day, ahead of the front. In addition, a strong and fast-moving outflow boundary is moving south across eastern North Texas. Although this boundary is not the aforementioned cold front, it is still providing sufficient lift to produce scattered showers and storms along and behind the boundary. We're also monitoring the area east of I-35 and south of I- 20 where additional disorganized showers and storms may develop in association with a remnant MCV over the Brazos Valley. The pre-frontal airmass is very moist and unstable, with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s across most of the area. Instability aloft varies quite a bit across the region. The most unstable airmass resides over western Central Texas with MLCAPE values around 4000+ J/kg. Most of North Texas is still unstable with MLCAPE values around 3000 or so, but the 18Z FWD RAOB sounding indicates that lapse rates aloft are not as impressive as they were earlier today, falling from 8.9 degC/km to only 7.2. Areas where MCV convection is possible are even more stable with MLCAPE values only around 1500. The convection today has been and will continue to be disorganized at best. For starters, the cold front is very shallow, so it is undercutting the warm and humid air, forcing the updrafts to go up well behind the boundary and lose access to the warm/unstable air in short-order. Once the storms are able to develop, the deep-layer shear is unfavorable for organized convection. The sheer amount of instability will maintain our severe threat through the afternoon and evening, but the threat will be isolated and dependent on individual updrafts organizing instead of using the background environment. The main threats continue to be large hail and damaging wind gusts, mainly for areas south of I-20 and west of I-35. To our west, a cluster of storms has developed near San Angelo that will continue through the afternoon/evening. The cluster should merge into a nocturnal MCS that takes a turn east-southeast toward our Central Texas counties overnight. Depending on how far north the storms develop, they may move into our Western Central Texas counties around midnight, or they may just skirt our counties just to the south. There may be an isolated damaging wind gust with this activity, but the severe threat should be lower by this time. While not mentioned in the discussion above...the very warm airmass is allowing for efficient rainfall today. While we haven't observed any significant flooding, some areas have already received over 2" of rain today. Expect ponding on roadways and minor flooding of typical flood-prone locations with most storms today. There will be an increased risk of flash flooding for areas that have intersecting boundaries, where multiple updrafts can develop in the same area simultaneously. The cold front will remain stalled over North and Central Texas tomorrow, but start to wash out as southerly flow starts to take over in the afternoon. In addition, a weak mid-level shortwave will start to move across the state, triggering additional showers and storms late in the day into the evening. Instability looks to be much weaker tomorrow, with little threat of strong or severe storms. This would allow for the rare occurrence of beneficial spring-time rainfall with little risk of severe weather. The counter, however is that the airmass will still be capable of producing very efficient rain-making downdrafts. If storms are able to form along the stalled front and train in locations that received heavy rain today, there would be an increased risk of flash flooding. Pinpointing where these features will be is futile given the weak forcing aloft, so I would consider this a very low confidence forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The surface boundary should almost completely lift north by Thursday as a more organized mid- and upper-level system is forecast to move across the Southern Plains. This should trigger an additional round of showers and storms across the region Thursday into Friday. Limited instability and shear will keep the severe threat very low, but the flood threat will be ratcheted up, particularly for localized areas that receive heavy rain multiple days in a row. Southwest winds aloft will remain in place through the weekend, with some of the global guidance bringing in cut off low features into early next week. While we are not confident of exactly how the forecast will pan out in the extended-range, the chance of beneficial rainfall across the region will continue through the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is moving through D10, bringing a sharp NW wind shift over the next couple hours. 30-60 minutes behind the wind shift, thunderstorms are expected to develop. The storms are gradually moving ENE. Expect storms INVOF the D10 terminals through at least 22-23Z before moving E and S. There is a chance that storms linger a few hours beyond that, but decided to keep the forecast a little more optimistic at this time. Gusty and erratic winds are expected with any storm today! Once the storms move E and S, north winds are forecast to prevail with a scattering of low clouds. We are not confident if the clouds will be MVFR or VFR, so kept ILS ceilings in the forecast with a SCT MVFR deck. A nocturnal MCS is also forecast to move across Central or South Texas tonight. It should remain south of D10, but may impact ACT in the early morning hours. We have MVFR ceilings in the forecast at all terminals tomorrow morning, but there is a chance the ceilings fall to IFR with some visibility restrictions as well. We will leave those details to be added in future TAFs. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 66 81 67 / 90 30 30 60 Waco 86 67 80 67 / 90 60 30 60 Paris 82 65 80 65 / 90 40 30 50 Denton 83 63 79 65 / 90 30 30 60 McKinney 84 64 80 66 / 90 30 30 60 Dallas 86 67 82 67 / 90 30 30 60 Terrell 85 66 81 66 / 90 40 30 60 Corsicana 87 67 83 69 / 90 50 30 60 Temple 88 66 81 68 / 80 70 40 60 Mineral Wells 85 62 78 63 / 90 50 30 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Bonnette