FXUS64 KFWD 140917
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather is expected for the rest of the work
  week.

- A strong weather system early next week will bring rain chances
  Sunday into Monday, with pockets of moderate rainfall and a
  rumble or two of thunder possible (10-15% chance).

- Much cooler conditions are expected the latter half of the week,
  following Monday's cold front and a second cold front midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/
/Through Thursday Night/

An upper level ridge will stay centered over the region through
Thursday night while surface high pressure shifts slowly eastward.
Dry air that filtered in behind today's cold front will remain in
place through the end of the week, keeping it clear and cool both
tonight and Thursday night with lows mainly in the 40s. Upper 30s
are also possible in a few rural locations. Full sun on Thursday
will yield a steady warmup with highs ranging from the upper 60s
to the lower 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Onward/

The start of the weekend will still be quite pleasant with dry,
southwest flow aloft as the mid and upper level ridge shift eastward
ahead of the next system arriving early next week. Friday's high
temperatures will be near or slightly above normal, with readings
again topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s. It'll be a few
degrees warmer on average for Saturday, and this trend will continue
Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (~10 to 15 degrees
above seasonable normals). As the high pressure shifts east of the
region this weekend, Gulf return flow will become established in
the low levels, with the more significant plume of moisture
advecting into North and Central Texas on Sunday. Weak isentropic
ascent may produce some light showers Sunday in advance of the
main round, but QPF amounts should remain light (< 0.1") with most
areas staying dry.

The main upper trough will depart the Baja Peninsula region,
inducing surface cyclogenesis near the TX/NM border Sunday with a
sharpening frontal boundary across West TX as the low pressure
system tracks northeast. Showers will increase in coverage ahead
of the front Sunday night mainly west of I-35, before the axis of
heaviest precipitation moves through the region with the front on
Monday. PWAT values will be approaching or exceeding the 90th
Percentile along with a deep warm cloud layer (near or greater
than 10kft), resulting in pockets of moderate and potentially even
some heavy rainfall developing at times, primarily Sunday night
through Monday morning. The chance of any thunder remains quite
low (10-15%), although a rumble or two will be possible during
this time frame as well, mainly out west where there may be a very
brief period of enough instability. Discrepancies remain in where
the axis of heaviest rain amounts will occur, but the area most
favored for the potential of > 1.5" still remains off to the
northwest, outside of the CWA. The gradient of heaviest rain
totals will be similar for North and Central TX, with the
northwestern half of the forecast area (generally NW of a
Goldthwaite-Hillsboro-Kaufman-Paris line) most likely to receive
amounts from 0.5" to 1.25", with those to the south and east of
this line likely to receive values between 0.25" and 1". There's a
10% chance of amounts in the 2-3" range between late Sunday and
Monday, which is again favored towards the northwest.

Showers will progress west to east Monday, exiting the region by
Monday night. Cooler and drier air will follow with highs Tuesday
in the 60s for most, outside of low 70s in Central TX. The upper
level trough will become absorbed in a deeper longwave trough
extending south into the Intermountain West Monday night, with
deep troughing likely to be maintained over the Central U.S.
heading into the midweek (although there is greater uncertainty
with this system's evolution). Much more potent cold air should
enter the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, which should set
the stage for the first real chance of a freeze this season and
likely bring a few days of highs in the 50s. The potential for
freezing temperatures is highest Thursday night/Friday morning and
is still about a 20-40% chance across the area, with a 10% chance
at DFW and a 30% chance at Waco. Most likely low temperatures for
the area are in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

A dry airmass will remain in place through the end of the week,
keeping the sky clear across all of North and Central Texas with
no visibility restrictions.

A northwest wind between 5 and 9 knots overnight will become
northerly on Thursday and easterly Thursday night as surface high
pressure gradually builds to the east. Wind speeds Thursday and
Thursday night will be generally less than 8 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  47  69  51  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  41  72  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  40  68  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              70  41  70  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            69  41  69  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              70  45  70  49  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  41  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  43  72  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  41  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  41  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$