FXUS64 KFWD 140917 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 317 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...New Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant weather is expected for the rest of the work week. - A strong weather system early next week will bring rain chances Sunday into Monday, with pockets of moderate rainfall and a rumble or two of thunder possible (10-15% chance). - Much cooler conditions are expected the latter half of the week, following Monday's cold front and a second cold front midweek. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ /Through Thursday Night/ An upper level ridge will stay centered over the region through Thursday night while surface high pressure shifts slowly eastward. Dry air that filtered in behind today's cold front will remain in place through the end of the week, keeping it clear and cool both tonight and Thursday night with lows mainly in the 40s. Upper 30s are also possible in a few rural locations. Full sun on Thursday will yield a steady warmup with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Onward/ The start of the weekend will still be quite pleasant with dry, southwest flow aloft as the mid and upper level ridge shift eastward ahead of the next system arriving early next week. Friday's high temperatures will be near or slightly above normal, with readings again topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s. It'll be a few degrees warmer on average for Saturday, and this trend will continue Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (~10 to 15 degrees above seasonable normals). As the high pressure shifts east of the region this weekend, Gulf return flow will become established in the low levels, with the more significant plume of moisture advecting into North and Central Texas on Sunday. Weak isentropic ascent may produce some light showers Sunday in advance of the main round, but QPF amounts should remain light (< 0.1") with most areas staying dry. The main upper trough will depart the Baja Peninsula region, inducing surface cyclogenesis near the TX/NM border Sunday with a sharpening frontal boundary across West TX as the low pressure system tracks northeast. Showers will increase in coverage ahead of the front Sunday night mainly west of I-35, before the axis of heaviest precipitation moves through the region with the front on Monday. PWAT values will be approaching or exceeding the 90th Percentile along with a deep warm cloud layer (near or greater than 10kft), resulting in pockets of moderate and potentially even some heavy rainfall developing at times, primarily Sunday night through Monday morning. The chance of any thunder remains quite low (10-15%), although a rumble or two will be possible during this time frame as well, mainly out west where there may be a very brief period of enough instability. Discrepancies remain in where the axis of heaviest rain amounts will occur, but the area most favored for the potential of > 1.5" still remains off to the northwest, outside of the CWA. The gradient of heaviest rain totals will be similar for North and Central TX, with the northwestern half of the forecast area (generally NW of a Goldthwaite-Hillsboro-Kaufman-Paris line) most likely to receive amounts from 0.5" to 1.25", with those to the south and east of this line likely to receive values between 0.25" and 1". There's a 10% chance of amounts in the 2-3" range between late Sunday and Monday, which is again favored towards the northwest. Showers will progress west to east Monday, exiting the region by Monday night. Cooler and drier air will follow with highs Tuesday in the 60s for most, outside of low 70s in Central TX. The upper level trough will become absorbed in a deeper longwave trough extending south into the Intermountain West Monday night, with deep troughing likely to be maintained over the Central U.S. heading into the midweek (although there is greater uncertainty with this system's evolution). Much more potent cold air should enter the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, which should set the stage for the first real chance of a freeze this season and likely bring a few days of highs in the 50s. The potential for freezing temperatures is highest Thursday night/Friday morning and is still about a 20-40% chance across the area, with a 10% chance at DFW and a 30% chance at Waco. Most likely low temperatures for the area are in the mid 30s to low 40s. Gordon && .AVIATION... /Issued 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ A dry airmass will remain in place through the end of the week, keeping the sky clear across all of North and Central Texas with no visibility restrictions. A northwest wind between 5 and 9 knots overnight will become northerly on Thursday and easterly Thursday night as surface high pressure gradually builds to the east. Wind speeds Thursday and Thursday night will be generally less than 8 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 47 69 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 71 41 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 68 40 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 70 41 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 69 41 69 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 70 45 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 70 41 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 71 43 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 74 41 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 71 41 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$