FXUS65 KGGW 111008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
308 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023


A fast moving shortwave trough will descend from Saskatchewan into
Ontario by the evening bringing a chance for light snow showers
this morning as it passes. Snow showers will move from north to
south, exiting our region by the early afternoon, and continue
into southern Montana and North Dakota for a couple more hours
before tapering off. Accumulations are generally expected to stay
under two tenths of an inch for most locations due to dry air
cutting in near the surface. Some higher elevation areas including
the Little Rockies and Big Sheeps may see locally higher amounts
but the chances are less than 10% for accumulations over an inch.

Behind this shortwave, colder overnight temperatures will settle
in for Monday night into Tuesday morning with some locations in
far northeastern Montana dipping down to the single digits. This
cooler air will be short lived as a weak ridging pattern sets up,
allowing for high temperatures to once again reach the mid 40s to
low 50s through the rest of the week.

A weak shortwave is expected to clip northeastern Montana
Thursday into early Friday morning, primarily affecting locations
north of Highway 2. Precipitation chances continue to sit at less
than 15% with dry air still expected to prevent most
precipitation from reaching the ground. Should any precipitation
reach the ground, it will most likely be in the form of rain for
most of the day with a chance for turning over to freezing rain/snow
late in the evening.

Heading into the weekend, the weak ridging pattern continues with
a trough passing to the north through central and southern
Canada. Current ensemble guidance shows almost no impact to our
area from this trough as conditions will remain warm and dry
through early next week.





FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR between 12Z and 18Z Monday, then VFR.

DISCUSSION: A cold front will produce scattered snow showers and
lower ceilings, occasionally down to MVFR conditions, between 12Z
and 18Z. This activity will quickly end from north to south and
ceilings are expected be back to VFR by 22Z.

WIND: West/northwest at 5 to 10 kts, picking up to 10 to 20 kts
after 16Z, and tapering off to under 10 kts after 01Z.