FXUS63 KGLD 081715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1015 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 419 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

Overview: Cyclonic flow /broad troughing/ aloft will prevail over
the central CONUS in this period.

Features of Interest:

[1] Shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners at 10Z this
morning will round the base of the broad central CONUS trough
(invof the TX/OK Panhandles) this afternoon, ejecting ENE into MO
this evening.

[2] Amplifying shortwave energy situated over the PAC NW at 10Z
this morning will rapidly dig SSE to the 4-Corners (this aft/eve)
and northern NM/TX Panhandle (tonight).

Today-Tonight: Simulated reflectivity, liquid equivalent
precipitation and snow accumulation forecasts via current and
recent runs of the HRRR, RAP and NAM NEST are consistent in the
sense that all depict the same general trends: (1) measurable
precipitation largely confined to Colorado, (2) the majority of
precipitation falling between noon today and sunrise Saturday
morning /18Z Fri-12Z Sat/ and (3) the relative heaviest
precipitation occurring along higher elevation portions of the
Palmer Divide. 06-09Z guidance this morning, in particular,
suggests that heavy precipitation will [1] largely be relegated
west of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties, CO and [2] largely occur in
association with Feature of Interest 2 this evening and overnight
(00-12Z Sat). Aside from slightly lower snowfall totals and a
decreased potential for locally heavy snow in far western portions
of the area, forecast essentially remains on track.

Saturday: Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies (largely via
cirrus) with highs ranging from the mid-upper 30s (western Kit
Carson/ Cheyenne counties in CO) to mid 40s (Hill City) and breezy
to strong NNW winds. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a
mixed-layer depth ~4,000-6,000 ft AGL with 30-38 knot flow therein
and throughout.. suggesting sustained winds on the order of 25-35
mph and gusts up to 45 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

The long term forecast calls for near to above normal
temperatures with a system around mid to late in the work week
bringing potential for some rain/snow chances.

12Z Sunday the upper level trough has just moved off to our east
as ridging moves in over the west, providing a northwesterly flow
aloft for the area. Temperatures warm to near to above normal on
Sunday, with highs forecast to be in the middle 40s to lower 50s
and lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.

On Monday, we start to see some deamplification of the ridge take
place as an upper low moves through Saskatchewan/Manitoba and
troughing enters the western CONUS, allowing our flow aloft to
gradually back towards the west. Expecting high temperatures to
continue above normal in the 50s followed by overnight lows in the

Going into Tuesday-Wednesday, flow aloft further backs to the
southwest as the upper trough digs south, eventually having an
upper low cut off near the Four Corners region where decent model
agreement exists between the GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs on
position of this system early Wednesday. For Tuesday, have left
mention of precipitation out of the forecast for now; however, may
begin to see some opportunity for occurrence as moisture starts
to increase. As we head into Wednesday, increased southerly flow
in the 850-700 mb layer draws in low level moisture with
precipitation chances coming up for Wednesday evening into Friday.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, with this uptick in low
level moisture, will need to watch for fog/low stratus. Will also
need to continue to monitor for wintry mix potential from mid week
on. For the latter part of the period, temperatures are forecast
to be generally in the 40s for highs with Thursday seeing some 50s
as well. Lows expected to be generally in the teens and 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1013 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. There is a slight chance for light snow at KGLD from mid
to late afternoon, but impacts, if any, appear minimal at this
time. Gusty northwest surface winds will develop at both terminal
tonight and continue through Saturday morning.




SHORT TERM...Vincent