FXUS63 KGLD 012350
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
550 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High-based showers may produce locally gusty winds (25-35 mph)
  this evening. Radar and observational data/trends indicate
  little, if any, measurable rainfall.

- Generally dry weather and seasonable temperatures to begin the
  weekend.

- Chances for precipitation and severe weather are forecast to
  return at least Sun-Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025

Current observations show an upper trough swinging through the
High Plains, with surface high pressure moving into the area
from the northwest. Radar shows showers around the area from
both the prior trough yesterday and the advancing one today.

For this evening, conditions similar to yesterday are forecast
where a line of showers and storms moves through the area as the
upper trough swings through. The timing is also similar with it
moving into Eastern Colorado around 4-6pm MT and leaving by
11pm-1am CT. The main difference today is the cloud cover and
lower temperatures have kept instability lower. This should
limit the potential for thunderstorms and keep chances for hail
or strong winds near zero. Temperatures are forecast to drop
into the 30s tonight with the colder air mass moving in.

Tomorrow, the trough is forecast to finish swinging through the
area with the surface high pressure center over the area. This
is forecast to keep precipitation chances less than 10% and
allow for cooler highs in the 60s again. Patches of cloud cover
will likely move through during the day as the trough swings
through the area. Winds are forecast to remain from the north at
15 to 20 mph as the pressure gradient remains similar with the
higher pressure sliding just north of the area.

Tomorrow night, skies should clear with the surface high
continuing to shift through and with the trough now east of the
area. With winds initially light, temperatures are forecast to
cool into the 30s again, with some freezing temperatures likely
west of Highway 27.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025

The weekend continues to be forecast to be mostly dry and warm
with an upper ridge moving over the area. Highs are forecast to
generally be in the 70s with a few 80s with winds from the south
at 10 to 20 mph. Precipitation is unlikely until Sunday evening
when the next trough may nudge into the area.

For late Sunday through the beginning of the week, we are still
forecasting for an increase in precipitation chances as an
upper low develops and deepens over the southwest. This should
give us daily chances for storms in the afternoon and evening
with the potential for severe weather. This would be in
combination with the increased forcing from the upper jet and
the moisture advection both aloft from the trough and near the
surface from southeast flow. The low level moisture advection is
expected to develop as low pressure develops along the Front
Range with higher pressure over the Ohio River Valley due to a
stalled trough. This stalled trough is also preventing the
western trough from moving which is leading to the multiple days
of storm chances. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s
each day, with winds strengthening from the southeast. Speeds
could reach 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph unless the trough
shifts east faster.

The greater majority of ensemble members are showing the
delayed trough over the east that is slowing the trough in the
west. The other members have the upper troughs/lows progressing
at a fairly steady pace. This would favor a day or two of storm
chances around Monday instead of a multi-day event. This would
also speed up the transition to laminar/split flow that is
suggested once the deeper low in the west tries to move through
the Plains. In the currently forecasted scenario, this split
flow wouldn't occur more until Wednesday or Thursday. It is also
worth noting that the upper low may dig too far south (similar
to recent events) and cause us to miss the precipitation as the
trough swings through the area (currently Tue or Wed).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both
terminals.. with ceilings at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. While
scattered high-based showers (sprinkles/virga) and locally gusty
winds (20-30 knots) are possible this evening (~00-06Z)..
upstream radar and observational data/trends suggest that sub-
VFR conditions are unlikely. Aside from brief, localized gusts
in vicinity of showers this evening.. expect northerly winds at
7-14 knots overnight. NNW to NW winds will increase to 15-25
knots a few hours after sunrise (~15-16Z) and persist through
Friday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent