FXUS63 KGLD 160429
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1029 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms may develop over portions of the area
  Sunday afternoon, mainly along and north of Interstate 70. An
  isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail
  and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, should storms
  develop.

- Temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees are
  expected across the majority of the Tri-State area on Sunday.
  Heat indices approaching 105 degrees are possible along and
  east of Highway 283.

- Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are mostly sunny to
sunny, with some scattered cloud cover persisting ahead of a
surface trough which is currently sitting over the Highway 27
corridor. Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s
with winds southerly gusting to 20-30 mph at times in the east
ahead of the trough. Along and behind it, light/variable
transitions to west-northwest flow.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the main wx concerns
this weekend in the short term, with some potential for some
convection to become strong or severe.

For the rest of the afternoon hrs into tonight, the first area
around the 22z-00z timeframe for a 15-20% chance of a few storms
developing will be in the small marginal risk area in the E/SE.
This activity will hinge on the speed and positioning of the
aforementioned surface trough which currently sits over the
western CWA, along with the upper trough which is slowly moving
through the CWA. Latest CAMs do support best initiation east and
southeast of the CWA, but will keep a chance in there for a
couple hours before the activity shifts east.

For the evening hours, the focus shifts to the west-northwest
where isolated/scattered convection is already forming ahead of
a cold front in the central Rockies. CAMs are showing activity
increasing towards 22z as it approaches the western portions of
our northeast Colorado counties. Instability does drop off some
as convection crosses the Colorado border, with soundings
showing best threat to be winds as DCape peaks in the
1600-1800j/kg range around the 21z- 00z timeframe. Convection
begins to fall apart from 00z-06z Sunday and will continue
previous shift's thinking of lowering pops slightly through 06z
as any remaining activity dissipates by 12z Sunday. Dry air at
the surface should preclude any large hail factors, but small
hail can't be ruled out.

Going into Sunday, the front that settles south into the area
tonight will stall over the region during the day. Southerly
flow at the surface with W/SW flow aloft will create another hot
day area- wide. The stalled front will have rw/trw initiating
by late afternoon into the early evening hours. The Marginal
risk for severe has been expanded to most of the CWA. Wind and
hail threats are present with any storms that develop as DCape
values around 1800- 2000j/kg and SBCape around 1700j/kg. PW
values in KS/NE where best convective chances are will increase
to an inch plus, throwing in heavy rainfall potential into the
threat mix. Precip expected through 06z Monday before tapering
off. Strong southerly flow remains overnight, so no big drops
for lows expected compared to the last couple nights.

For temps, looking for above normal highs on Sunday with a
range in the upper 90s to low 100s. Some locales may be close to
tying or even breaking records. Please refer to the Climate
section below for area records on this date. With the airmass
being dry, looking for heat indices to peak at or below
forecasted highs. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the
60s, with warmest areas along/east of Highway 25. For Sunday
night, 60s along and west of Highway 27. East of there, upper
60s to mid 70s, warmest along and east of Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the extended period, both the GFS and ECMWF show broad
upper ridging over the eastern portions of the country that will
give a southwesterly flow aloft for much of the week, before
going more zonal to end the week. There will be a couple of
shortwaves that will transition across the northern/western
periphery of the ridge, especially from Tuesday onward.

At the surface through midweek, a front pushing into the region
will settle over the KS area, providing a focus for increased
moisture and chances(60-70%) for convection, especially Tue-Wed
nights. The latter portion of the week will see the front lift
north giving way to hotter conditions and decreased chance for
precip, with the focus north of the Interstate.

Besides the chances for storms, the southerly gradient over the
region Mon-Mon evening will be tight with the potential to see
gusts into the 30-40 mph range. Thursday is similar, but closer
to the 25- 35 mph range.

Also, with the threat for storms bringing about hail/wind
concerns, increased to steady PW values through the upcoming
week are going to peak from 1-1.50". With the surface low
associated with the front moving along the Colorado border,
highest PW values will be east into Kansas.

For temps, highs on Monday in the mid to upper 90s will give
way to mainly 80s for Tuesday and 70s on Wednesday due to
increased chances for clouds/precip. Highs expected to increase
from there with 80s on Thursday giving way to 90s again for the
end of next week. Overnight lows in the 60s and 70s for Monday
night will give way to mainly 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with 60s returning thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Aside
from cirrus associated with decaying convection /convective
remnants/ this evening, clear skies will otherwise prevail.
Aside from gusty/erratic winds (~15G25KT) associated with
lingering convective outflow this evening, winds will otherwise
remain light/variable through sunrise.. shifting to the south
at 10-15 knots late Sunday morning and increasing to 15-20 knots
Sunday afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Aside
from cirrus associated with decaying convection /convective
remnants/ this evening, clear skies will otherwise prevail.
Aside from gusty/erratic winds (~15G25KT) associated with
lingering convective outflow this evening, winds will otherwise
remain light/variable through early Sunday afternoon.. shifting
to the south and increasing to 15-25 knots during the mid-late
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Near-record to record high temperatures are expected across
portions of the area on Sunday June 16. High temperature records
for the date (June 16) are listed below.

Location        Record (F)

Goodland KS     101 in 2021+
McCook NE       107 in 1946
Hill City KS    112 in 1946
Burlington CO   103 in 1952
Colby KS        107 in 1946
Tribune KS      103 in 1946
Yuma CO          98 in 1995

A (+) denotes a record set on multiple years.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...JN