FXUS63 KGLD 181132
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
432 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A fast moving system brings a chance for light snow tonight
  and into Monday morning across the tri-state region. A trace
  to two inches of snow is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 133 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Current observations show the upper trough still over the
Midwest and Great Lakes region with a shortwave pushing from
north to south through the Plains. At the surface, a low
pressure system and associated front are pushing through the
Northern Plains. These features are forecast to push through the
area during the morning hours, shifting winds back to out of
the northwest and increasing speeds to around 15-30 mph with
gusts of 25-45 mph. The colder part of the air mass is forecast
to be lagged behind, which will allow the area to warm into the
40s, with maybe a few 50s for those who see consistent sunshine.
This system is also bringing moisture into the area, with
surface dewpoints rising 10 degrees around the midnight hour.
While not enough for precipitation yet, it is forecast to bring
some intermittent cloud cover to the area and help keep relative
humidity above 25%. With this, critical fire weather conditions
are not expected today.

This evening and through the night, the main cold air mass is
forecast to move into the area. This should allow temperatures
to cool into the teens, even with the mid to high level cloud
cover that is also forecast to move into the area. The center of
the high pressure moving over should also lower the winds in
the area down to around 5 to 10 mph. The main element of
interest is that a 700mb frontogenesis band remains forecast to
develop over the area. The mid levels are forecast to saturate
first between the moisture advection and colder air, followed
eventually by the lower levels. With the frontogenesis band,
snow should be able to develop around the midnight hours. As
alluded to, the low levels will likely start too dry for any
initial snow showers to reach the ground, but this should be
overcome as the night goes on. With a steady shift south of the
band forecast and the dry air, snow accumulations will likely be
low with the current forecast calling for 0-2 inches, favoring
the lower amounts. With events like these, there could be some
small enhancements that aren't modeled well, so it wouldn't be
unreasonable for very small portions within the main band to see
snow totals closer to 3 inches. The chance from the NBM for 3+
inches is 20% while the HREF is closer to 5-10%. The likely area
for the snow is south of I-70, but ensemble QPF fields show at
least a 20-30% chance that the snow could be further north or
across most of the area.

Monday, the snow could linger into the morning hours, but
should taper off somewhat quickly as the shortwave swings more
north and east compared to the prior days. This should keep the
winds in check as the pressure gradient broadens, limiting the
concern for any blowing snow. Otherwise, Monday is forecast to
be fairly cold with highs in the 30s due to the cold air mass
and cloud cover that should slowly exit the area.

Monday night, temperatures are forecast to fall to near
dewpoint in the teens with winds generally 10 mph or less and
mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

Overview: A deep and expansive upper level trough will prevail
over the CONUS through the upcoming work week.

Tuesday: A broad cyclone will develop in the lee of the central
Rockies during the day on Tuesday.. as shortwave energy in
Alberta/Saskatchewan digs SSE into the northern Rockies. SW to W
low-level flow /warm advection/ on the eastern periphery of the
lee cyclone will foster a warming trend, yielding highs in the
mid 50's. ~25-30 knot low-level flow on the eastern periphery of
the eastward advancing lee cyclone may result in breezy SW to
WSW winds over eastern portions of the area (along/east of Hwy
83) during the mid-late afternoon.. at peak heating, after a
cool/shallow airmass recedes to the east and/or mixes out.. and
surface winds may reach 20-30 mph. Further west (e.g. eastern CO
and adjacent KS border areas), where vertical mixing will be
deeper but low-level flow will be weaker (slack MSLP-850 mb
height gradient in vicinity of the broad lee cyclone).. expect
WSW to WNW winds at ~10-20 mph.

Fire Weather (Tuesday): Guidance suggests that the driest
conditions and lowest RH readings (~15%) will be confined to
eastern CO, where WSW to WNW winds will be weak (~10-20 mph)..
and that the breeziest winds (~20-30 mph) will be confined
along/east of Highway 83, where minimum RH readings will bottom-
out ~20-30%. With an unfavorable overlap / spatial disconnect
between wind and RH, critical fire weather conditions are
presently not anticipated.

Tuesday Eve-Night: Guidance continues to indicate that
shortwave energy digging SSE into the northern Rockies will
rapidly progress east across the Dakotas late Tue aft-eve.. and
that synoptic subsidence / surface pressure rises in the wake of
this feature will drive an inverted surface ridge southward
through the High Plains, the leading edge of which will manifest
as an abrupt northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal
passage ~00-03Z Wed (shortly after sunset). A short period of
breezy N winds will accompany/immediately follow the frontal
passage. Guidance continues to indicate that surface pressure
rises and low-level flow will be modest in nature (weaker than
the frontal passage on the evening of Thu Jan 15). Expect
overnight (Wed morning) lows in the teens.

Wed-Wed night: Cooler, albeit with near average temperatures.
Expect light/variable winds during the early morning as surface
high pressure over the Northern Plains progresses southward over
the Central Plains. 00 UTC 01/18 operational runs of the GFS,
NAM and ECMWF suggest that synoptic subsidence and surface
pressure rises in the wake of yet another shortwave.. digging SE
into the Dakotas (Wed morning) and progressing ESE into the
Upper Midwest (Wed aft-eve).. will drive an inverted surface
ridge southward through the High Plains, the leading edge of
which will manifest as an abrupt northerly wind shift and modest
effective cold frontal passage during the late morning or
early-mid afternoon (timing varies from model-to-model). High
temps (and temp trends) will greatly depend on the timing of the
frontal passage. At present, guidance suggests highs in the
40's (during the late morning to early afternoon) with
temperatures falling into the 30's during the remainder of the
afternoon. Expect overnight (Thu morning) lows in the mid teens.

Thursday: Guidance suggests a warming/moderating trend
associated with southerly flow on the eastern periphery of a
developing lee cyclone.

Friday-Sunday: *Below average forecast confidence in the lee of
the central Rockies. Model solutions noticeably diverge in this
period. Disagreement with regard to the evolution of an eastern
Pacific ridge and cut-off low offshore the southern Pacific
Coast (late this week) leads to more substantial disagreement
with regard to the evolution of the North American synoptic
pattern (next weekend). While guidance is in general agreement
that an expansive Arctic airmass will spill southward into the
CONUS next weekend, considerable variation exists with regard to
the magnitude, southern extent and duration/longevity of the
Arctic airmass. Broadly speaking, expect below average
temperatures and dry conditions. *Note: Forecast confidence
typically decreases with range. 'Below average', in this
context, is intended to communicate a further reduction in
confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased pattern
complexity.. e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves and
multibranched jet/wave interactions, among others.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 428 AM MST Sun Jan 18 2026

For KGLD & KMCK...VFR conditions are forecast for most of the
period. Low level wind shear is expected to continue for the
first few hours until about 15Z when the inversion should mix
out and winds should become more uniform. Speeds near the
surface should climb to around 20 kts with gusts around 25-35
kts. Shortly after sunset around 00Z, winds should lighten
fairly quickly to 10 kts or less. There is the possibility for a
snow band or snow showers to develop between 03-12Z. If it
develops, it would favor KGLD and produce light snow with
visibility around 2-6SM. Overall chances are about 40% for KGLD
and 10% for KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK