FXUS63 KGLD 012350 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 550 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High-based showers may produce locally gusty winds (25-35 mph) this evening. Radar and observational data/trends indicate little, if any, measurable rainfall. - Generally dry weather and seasonable temperatures to begin the weekend. - Chances for precipitation and severe weather are forecast to return at least Sun-Tue. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025 Current observations show an upper trough swinging through the High Plains, with surface high pressure moving into the area from the northwest. Radar shows showers around the area from both the prior trough yesterday and the advancing one today. For this evening, conditions similar to yesterday are forecast where a line of showers and storms moves through the area as the upper trough swings through. The timing is also similar with it moving into Eastern Colorado around 4-6pm MT and leaving by 11pm-1am CT. The main difference today is the cloud cover and lower temperatures have kept instability lower. This should limit the potential for thunderstorms and keep chances for hail or strong winds near zero. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s tonight with the colder air mass moving in. Tomorrow, the trough is forecast to finish swinging through the area with the surface high pressure center over the area. This is forecast to keep precipitation chances less than 10% and allow for cooler highs in the 60s again. Patches of cloud cover will likely move through during the day as the trough swings through the area. Winds are forecast to remain from the north at 15 to 20 mph as the pressure gradient remains similar with the higher pressure sliding just north of the area. Tomorrow night, skies should clear with the surface high continuing to shift through and with the trough now east of the area. With winds initially light, temperatures are forecast to cool into the 30s again, with some freezing temperatures likely west of Highway 27. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025 The weekend continues to be forecast to be mostly dry and warm with an upper ridge moving over the area. Highs are forecast to generally be in the 70s with a few 80s with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph. Precipitation is unlikely until Sunday evening when the next trough may nudge into the area. For late Sunday through the beginning of the week, we are still forecasting for an increase in precipitation chances as an upper low develops and deepens over the southwest. This should give us daily chances for storms in the afternoon and evening with the potential for severe weather. This would be in combination with the increased forcing from the upper jet and the moisture advection both aloft from the trough and near the surface from southeast flow. The low level moisture advection is expected to develop as low pressure develops along the Front Range with higher pressure over the Ohio River Valley due to a stalled trough. This stalled trough is also preventing the western trough from moving which is leading to the multiple days of storm chances. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s each day, with winds strengthening from the southeast. Speeds could reach 20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph unless the trough shifts east faster. The greater majority of ensemble members are showing the delayed trough over the east that is slowing the trough in the west. The other members have the upper troughs/lows progressing at a fairly steady pace. This would favor a day or two of storm chances around Monday instead of a multi-day event. This would also speed up the transition to laminar/split flow that is suggested once the deeper low in the west tries to move through the Plains. In the currently forecasted scenario, this split flow wouldn't occur more until Wednesday or Thursday. It is also worth noting that the upper low may dig too far south (similar to recent events) and cause us to miss the precipitation as the trough swings through the area (currently Tue or Wed). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 545 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both terminals.. with ceilings at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. While scattered high-based showers (sprinkles/virga) and locally gusty winds (20-30 knots) are possible this evening (~00-06Z).. upstream radar and observational data/trends suggest that sub- VFR conditions are unlikely. Aside from brief, localized gusts in vicinity of showers this evening.. expect northerly winds at 7-14 knots overnight. NNW to NW winds will increase to 15-25 knots a few hours after sunrise (~15-16Z) and persist through Friday afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...Vincent