FXUS63 KGRR 180457
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1157 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake Effect Snow Showers and Slick Roads Tonight

- Impactful Snow and Blowing Snow Sunday Evening Through Monday

- Subzero Wind Chills Monday/Tuesday, Then More Snow Midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Lake Effect Snow Showers and Slick Roads Tonight

Lake effect snow showers amid WSW flow increased earlier today and
are helping maintain slick road conditions particularly in
Muskegon, Ottawa, and Kent counties. These snow showers are aided
by upstream low-level moisture in the DGZ which is producing snow
over southern Wisconsin, along with augmented lift from 925-850
mb frontogenesis, as a tongue of relatively colder 850 air is
advecting through northern Illinois, Indiana, and southern
Michigan.

Short term guidance favors an uptick in these snow showers this
evening where both the lake effect and fgen-related lift is
maximized, followed by a period of more concentrated but shifting
heavier snow bands overnight in proximity to a sharp surface
trough now moving south from northern Lake Michigan toward western
Lower Michigan. As such, expecting an additional 2 to locally 5
inches over most areas west of US-131 through daybreak Sunday,
along with continued slick roads.

- Impactful Snow and Blowing Snow Sunday Evening Through Monday

Snow intensity midday Sunday should be a little subdued prior to
the arrival of the next Clipper-style low during the evening.
Between about 4 pm and 10 pm Sun, southwest wind lake effect
mostly within the DGZ and midlevel snow production above the DGZ
will ramp up, followed by lake effect continuing as strengthening
winds become more west then northwest with Arctic air on Monday.
Upstream 850 mb air is favored to be around -20 to -23 C on Monday
with lake induced convection climbing above 10 kft. Temperatures
in the teens, powdery snow, and winds gusting 30-35 mph on Monday
will create blowing snow and travel difficulty not just within the
Lake Michigan adjacent counties (where snow totals should be
greater) but also well inland. Amounts of 4 to 6 inches (with
higher drifts) are possible near/west of US-131, and 1 to 3 are
possible toward Mid Michigan.

- Subzero Wind Chills Monday/Tuesday, Then More Snow Midweek

Lighter lake effect snow showers continue Monday night and
Tuesday. The core of coldest air will move through Monday night.
Tuesday morning lows are expected to be in the single digits with
wind chills -5 to -15 F.

Temperatures warm up into the balmy 20s on Wednesday before
dropping back into the teens Wed night and Thursday. The next
clipper system and following lake effect snow during that time
will be good for another few inches along with the increasingly
familiar travel challenges.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Variable conditions exist across the TAF sites at 05z...with IFR
conditions near Lake Michigan and VFR conditions inland. MKG and
GRR are down in lower ceilings and visibilities due to lake effect
snow pouring off the lake in southwest flow. Inland towards LAN
and JXN ceilings are VFR with no snow occurring.

The thinking at this time as we will see at least MVFR ceilings
spread out and affect most of if not all the TAF sites by 12z. The
lake effect snow will continue to affect MKG and GRR overnight,
but we may see it taper just a bit. A bit of a lull in the
activity is expected during the morning on Sunday (MVFR conditions
will continue to prevail due to ceilings). Sunday evening lake
effect snow showers will ramp up once again with IFR conditions
beginning to form once again. Southwest winds will be the dominant
direction the next 24 hours with speeds often in the 10-20 knot
range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Winds and waves hazardous for small craft persist through Sunday.
West-northwest gales and heavy freezing spray are possible early
Monday morning and through the day.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-071.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.
     Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
     LMZ844>849.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from late Sunday night through
     Tuesday morning for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...CAS