FXUS63 KGRR 230654 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Saturday with gradually increasing temperatures - Multiple chances for storms Saturday night through Monday - Cooling off mid-week next week and drying out && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 - Dry through Saturday with gradually increasing temperatures Forecast remains unchanged through Saturday, with dry weather expected and increasingly warmer temperatures. Confluent flow aloft downstream of the upper ridge over the Plains will dominate the weather through Friday. This scenario provides for a strong sfc ridge axis remaining over the area through Friday also. One small interesting feature is the Euro and HRRR keep showing a few sprinkles this morning near the lakeshore. This looks to be the result of of a land breeze convergent band over the lake, with the warmer lake contributing some moisture. This should not be anything more that sprinkles, and surely not impactful. We will see the sfc ridge axis weaken and sink south of the area on Saturday. This will allow for an increase in the low level flow from the SW. All indications are that there is not much moisture yet advecting in, and no feature yet to trigger anything through the daylight hours. - Multiple chances for storms Saturday night through Monday The models and their ensemble members have been fairly consistent in bringing the first chances of rain to the area Saturday night. We see better moisture able to start advecting in, and we have a short wave riding north of the area to help bring some forcing to interact with increasing instability. There is not shown to be much of a low level jet, which would limit rain chances. Rain chances look to be better Sunday night and early Monday morning in general across the region. There is good agreement that we see a better organized low level jet expected to move over the area, along with plenty of instability in place. The better chances for rain are likely to be over Northern Michigan and Canada where the nose of the low level jet will be. We shall see though where it ends up, as it could propagate a little further south. The potential of convection then Monday will be modulated by the movement of the storms earlier in the day, and any outflow boundaries that may be floating around. Areas that are not as much impacted by any early morning storms will have a chance to destabilize then with the heating of the day. This could lead to some possible strong to severe storms with some better mid level flow helping with deep layer shear. The short wave is forecast to stay mainly north of the area, which would limit the severe potential some. We will continue to watch the trends with this. - Cooling off mid-week next week and drying out There may be a lingering shower Tuesday morning with the upper trough axis remaining nearby. This moves out on Tuesday, and then allows large scale subsidence and sfc ridging to build downstream of the upper ridge over the Plains once again. This will be similar to this week where we cool off under the NW flow, and remain dry. This dry period should go through next Wednesday. We will have to keep our eye out on the upper low that tries to cutoff with energy coming in from the NW and amplifying the upper flow. If it closes off earlier, it would mean better rain chances for our area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 This forecast period will be one that will continue with little to no impact for the terminals. Skies are mainly clear this morning, except at KJXN where there is a patch of clouds around 8k ft agl. We will see cumulus clouds based around 6k ft or so will develop toward the late morning hours through the afternoon. Winds will increase some toward afternoon from the SW at 10 knots or less at all sites. Clouds will dissipate after sunset, with light SSW winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Winds and waves came down sufficiently last evening to allow the headlines to either be cancelled a tad early, or expire on time. We are now in a period of lighter winds with high pressure nearby through Friday. Diurnal cycle of lake breezes can be expected through that time. Winds will start to increase a bit on Saturday with winds from the SW out ahead of the next system moving in. Not sure they will be strong enough to need a headline, but will continue to watch. Monday looks more likely that headlines will be needed at that time. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ