FXUS64 KHGX 111714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure will begin a slow movement east during the day today,
with surface to 850mb winds becoming southerly to southwesterly in
nature. This will lead to a rebound in temperatures today, with
highs warming into the 60s area wide. Winds will be calm out of the

Tonight's low temperatures will be a bit warmer than last nights
with lows dropping into the upper 30s to 40s inland and into the 50s
along the coast.

The warming trend will progress Tuesday as southwesterly flow
continues. Highs will be in the 60s with some locations in the
southern counties and along the coast reaching into the low 70s. A
slight increase in cloud cover will occur over the southern coastal
counties as a result of onshore flow and moisture convergence. Lows
on Tuesday night will be in the 40s generally north of I-10.
Increased cloud cover further south will limit radiational cooling
and keep lows slightly warmer with temperatures in the 50s.



(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Moisture will be streaming around periphery of an expansive broad
high pressure area encompassing much of the eastern US and
northern Gulf coast (stretching into east Tx). So, with the
exception of maybe some iso-sct shra along the coast/offshore and
our far western zones...much of the region will remain dry into
Thursday night. For those of you that live along the immediate
coast, you might want to view the blurb about potential high tide
levels in the marine discussion below.

The next western upper trof will make its way into the the Desert
Southwest Wednesday and eventually into West Texas early Friday.
With an amplifying ridge on its backside, guidance is then digging
the base of the trof southeast and overhead on Saturday then on into
the Gulf. The combination of increasing moisture, large scale
lift, and its associated frontal boundary should provide some
fairly good rain chances (and maybe an elevated tstm or two) across
the region Fri-Sat. The associated front itself looks to pass
through late Friday night, but trailing wrap- around light rain
might not fully exit til early Sunday morning. Rain totals with
this system might be in the 1-2" range for many locations. 47


(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions with light SE winds today and tonight. Models are
hinting at a shallow llvl cloud layer developing late tonight into
Tue morning...added FEW010-020 for the time being, but may end up
having MVFR cigs for a few hours. Cigs, if any, are expected to
scatter out and lift shortly after sunrise. Winds will turn E at
5-10 KTS Tues.



Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

As surface high pressure moves off to the east today, look for
light onshore winds to resume. A long fetch of moderate east winds
is then forecast to set up across the Gulf for the remainder of
the work week. Look for increasing east winds in the 15-25kt
range...highest in the Gulf. Caution flags might be needed
offshore as early as Tuesday afternoon, but advisories are a good
bet thereafter and for the remainder of the week as seas
eventually build into the 7-12ft range.

This set-up is also favorable for above normal tide levels across
the Upper Texas coast and bays. Astronomical levels at high tide
are inching close to 2ft MLLW. Add an additional 1.5-2ft on top
of that in addition to wave action...I wouldn't be surprised if we
see some minor coastal flooding at the more prone spots (Bolivar,
parts of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Surfside, etc) as
we get into the Thurs-Fri timeframe. Too early for any specifics,
but worth watching trends. High risk of rip currents looks like a
good bet along area beaches with the elevated surf on the way too.

An upper level storm system and associated cold front is forecast
to move into the region Friday and Friday night. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the
day Friday, followed by the frontal passage late Friday night and
some trailing light rain tapering off late Saturday. 47


College Station (CLL)     63  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)                     62  43  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)                   62  55  65  55 /   0   0   0   0