FXUS63 KICT 081727 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1127 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 .KEY MESSAGES... * Rain/drizzle/fog chances today/tonight mainly east of the Kansas turnpike. * Windy and cooler for Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 A strong jet on the back side of the developing western conus upper trof will continue to amplify the said trof as it moves from the Rockies across the Plains thru Saturday. Low level moisture will continue to increase ahead of the lead shortwave aloft and slow moving surface front today and tonight, resulting in stratus development and perhaps some fog and drizzle this morning across portions of south central and southeast Kansas. Somewhat deeper moistening within better lift just ahead of this lead wave later this afternoon/evening may result in scattered showers with weak instability promoting isolated storms. Modest lift within the trailing mid-level baroclinic zone tonight may promote isolated light precip over central Kansas, though drying within the lower levels should preclude measurable precip so will keep the forecast dry up along the I-70 corridor. Saturday looks windy and seasonably cooler as a secondary shortwave within the mean central conus longwave upper trof moves over the area. North to northwest winds may approach wind advisory criteria in central Kansas. Less wind on Sunday with return of a southwest surface wind in the wake of the departing upper trof. Dry weather with temperatures at or slightly above climo look on track for early next week within modest westerly flow aloft over the central Plains. The medium range consensus looks to develop a closed upper low over the Four Corners region in the West by mid-week as cooler air oozes southward across the area. The evolution/movement of this low will determine eastward expansion of precip chances across the Plains. For now confidence is low, though will show chances developing across central Kansas by Thursday. Darmofal && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2023 -Patchy dense for with LIFR and IFR VSBYs in the KEQA and K13K area for the next few hours. -MVFR CIGs likely to hold on through much of afternoon in KCNU area An area of patch dense fog has been resilient along the Flint Hills this morning and is likely to hold on for the first few hours of the TAF period. KEQA and K13K are more likely see the for but this is expected to lift by 20Z today. CIGs are likely to remain in the region with KICT, KCNU, KIDP likely to have some MVFR CIGS for much of the afternoon. There is a chance for some IFR CIGS after 02Z tonight in these same areas but confidence is not very good so kept it out of the TAF. VFR conditions are expected to return to all terminals by 12Z tomorrow with northerly winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023 Stronger north to northwest winds and drier air/lower daytime humidity values on Saturday afternoon may result in a few hours of very high grassland fire danger over central Kansas. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...ELM FIRE WEATHER...KED