FXUS63 KICT 081727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1127 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

* Rain/drizzle/fog chances today/tonight mainly east of the
  Kansas turnpike.

* Windy and cooler for Saturday.


Issued at 237 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A strong jet on the back side of the developing western conus
upper trof will continue to amplify the said trof as it moves
from the Rockies across the Plains thru Saturday. Low level
moisture will continue to increase ahead of the lead shortwave
aloft and slow moving surface front today and tonight, resulting
in stratus development and perhaps some fog and drizzle this
morning across portions of south central and southeast Kansas.
Somewhat deeper moistening within better lift just ahead of
this lead wave later this afternoon/evening may result in
scattered showers with weak instability promoting isolated
storms. Modest lift within the trailing mid-level baroclinic
zone tonight may promote isolated light precip over central
Kansas, though drying within the lower levels should preclude
measurable precip so will keep the forecast dry up along the
I-70 corridor.

Saturday looks windy and seasonably cooler as a secondary
shortwave within the mean central conus longwave upper trof
moves over the area. North to northwest winds may approach
wind advisory criteria in central Kansas. Less wind on Sunday
with return of a southwest surface wind in the wake of the
departing upper trof.

Dry weather with temperatures at or slightly above climo look on
track for early next week within modest westerly flow aloft
over the central Plains. The medium range consensus looks to
develop a closed upper low over the Four Corners region in the
West by mid-week as cooler air oozes southward across the area.
The evolution/movement of this low will determine eastward
expansion of precip chances across the Plains. For now
confidence is low, though will show chances developing across
central Kansas by Thursday.



Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2023

-Patchy dense for with LIFR and IFR VSBYs in the KEQA and K13K
 area for the next few hours.

-MVFR CIGs likely to hold on through much of afternoon in KCNU

An area of patch dense fog has been resilient along the Flint
Hills this morning and is likely to hold on for the first few
hours of the TAF period. KEQA and K13K are more likely see the
for but this is expected to lift by 20Z today. CIGs are likely
to remain in the region with KICT, KCNU, KIDP likely to have
some MVFR CIGS for much of the afternoon. There is a chance for
some IFR CIGS after 02Z tonight in these same areas but
confidence is not very good so kept it out of the TAF. VFR
conditions are expected to return to all terminals by 12Z
tomorrow with northerly winds.


Issued at 237 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Stronger north to northwest winds and drier air/lower daytime
humidity values on Saturday afternoon may result in a few hours
of very high grassland fire danger over central Kansas.