FXUS63 KILX 310435
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1135 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong, gusty winds will continue through tonight and into
  tomorrow, with gusts of 35-40 mph forecast.

- Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for central
  Illinois late this evening through tomorrow morning. Main threat
  will be damaging winds, but small hail cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

An unseasonably warm evening so far, with 8 pm temperatures still
in the 70-75 degree range, aided by gusty south winds. The gusts
are settling down a tad, but should pick up again late evening as
the front continues to edge eastward. Winds drop off from west to
east as the leading edge of the rain gets further east.

Speaking of which, latest radar mosaics show a skinny line of
storms with some bowing structures, extending from central Iowa to
southeast Kansas. Overall movement of the rain area is slowly
east, although individual showers/storms are tracking northeast.
Evening SPC Day1 convective outlook maintains the level 1
(marginal) risk west of I-57 through the night. Evening updates to
the rain chances were mainly to adjust the starting times, with
rain beginning to approach the Illinois River around midnight and
not reaching I-57 until near 4 am.

Geelhart

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Strong gusty winds will continue this evening ahead of a cold
front that will move into the area later tonight and through
central IL tonight through Thur morning. Dewpoints in the lower
60s ahead of the front in the eastern half of Iowa will interact
with the front and produce showers and storms in eastern IA this
evening. The showers and storms will move into the CWA late
tonight...shortly after midnight and then continue to the east and
southeast through Thursday morning. The higher dwpts and the
stronger wind shear will be sufficient for some of the storms to
become severe, with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Stronger storms could produce small hail as well. The wind shear
appears to be ample that a spin-up tornado is also possible. The
cold front will be several hours behind the line of storms tonight
and come of the HiRes models suggest that scattered showers/storms
could develop along the front tomorrow afternoon, but mainly in
eastern and southeastern IL. Since the front will move through
quickly, dry weather is expected behind the front tomorrow night.
The gusty winds will also continue tomorrow afternoon/evening
behind the front, but not quite as strong as ahead of the front.

After a mild period tonight, cooler temps are expected Thursday
with highs in the 60s early in the day and overnight lows tomorrow
night in the 30s.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

A brief period of dry weather is expected Friday through Saturday.
However, this will be brief as southwest flow takes over for the
end of the weekend and through the middle of next week. This flow
will allow a series of systems to move across the area with
chances of precip through the entire period. Potentially this
could bring quite of bit of rain to the area which should be able
to alleviate the drought conditions that has been over the area
for several months.

Temps will start on the cooler side...in the 50s and then warm
into the 70s by Monday, then dropping into the 60s for Tuesday and
the into the 50s again for Wednesday.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms in western Illinois is
advancing eastward, and should lose a bit of its punch as it gets
further east. Right now, will limit any thunder mention to
KPIA/KBMI/KSPI, and will amend KDEC/KCMI if needed in a few hours.
Behind the main line of convection, ceilings will drop to MVFR for
a few hours, before some improvements accompany the cold front
which will cross the TAF sites between 14-18Z.

Winds are picking up again, as winds just above 2,000 feet are in
the 50-60 knot range. Gusts to 30-40 mph are expected for a few
hours, but will diminish for a time behind the convection.
However, an increase with the front itself is expected again as
winds turn toward the west.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$