FXUS63 KILX 111728 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 959 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Day cloud phase satellite imagery shows low level clouds finally breaking up across Champaign and Vermilion Counties, while some mid level clouds are slowly dissolving further southwest. Thus, anemic sunshine has returned, and will help bring our temperatures up into the low-mid 40s for highs this afternoon -- near to just slightly above normal for this time of year. Bumgardner && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 08z/2am IR satellite imagery continues to show a persistent shield of low clouds across northern Illinois southeastward into Indiana with the back edge of the clouds along a Lasalle...to Rantoul...to Paris line. With little or no advection in the cloud-bearing layer beneath a ridge of high pressure, think these clouds will only gradually edge eastward and may not depart the far NE KILX CWA around Danville until mid to late morning. Meanwhile mid/high clouds noted upstream across southern Iowa into Missouri will skirt eastward as well...resulting in a partly sunny start to the day across most of the area. NAM/RAP layer RH profiles suggest cloud cover will thin/dissipate as the day goes on, so am expecting mostly sunny skies across the board by afternoon. Early morning lows will dip into the upper teens/lower 20s where skies cleared overnight, but will rebound into the lower to middle 40s thanks to the return of sunshine. As high pressure shifts east of the region, a southerly return flow will keep temps from dropping as low tonight...with lows only reaching the middle to upper 20s. As has been advertised by the past several model runs, a weak cold front is progged to pass through central Illinois on Tuesday. With little or no moisture for the boundary to work with, it will produce little more than a few clouds and a shift in the wind. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 30s far northwest around Galesburg and Lacon to the lower 50s south of I-70. Barnes .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Quiet weather will prevail throughout the extended. Once upper troughing over the Great Lakes lifts E/NE...a zonal flow pattern will dominate the CONUS. Models continue to show a cut-off low forming over the Great Basin, with 00z Dec 11 solutions all shifting it E/SE to the Gulf Coast over the weekend. Meanwhile a weaker northern-stream wave will track along the U.S./Canadian border. Central Illinois will remain sandwiched between these two systems, ensuring the continuation of mild and dry conditions. Seasonable high temperatures in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday will warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s Friday through Sunday. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Southerly winds will generally hover around 10kt or slightly less through the afternoon and evening, but then veer to northwest and become briefly gusty early-mid Wednesday morning behind a cold front which is slated to arrive at KPIA around 12z (6am CDT) and KCMI by 15z (9 am CDT). As this front will cross the area dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Bumgardner && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$