FXUS63 KILX 170128 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 828 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - After the recent severe weather and dust storm, the weekend looks much tamer. - Gusty winds will continue into Saturday, especially north of I-72/Danville. - An extended period of high rain chances is expected Monday through Wednesday, though severe weather potential is highly uncertain at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The severe weather has pushed well to our east and south with the arrival of sunset, and the unusual dust storm that impacted parts of the area lifted northeast out of the area a couple hours ago. Still seeing some stronger wind gusts, especially near the I-74 corridor, though they have shifted to the west. Will keep the Wind Advisory going across the northern CWA for now, with the HRRR suggesting some gusts near 40 mph will continue the rest of the evening. Main forecast updates were to remove the remaining rain chances for this evening, as well as update the dew point grids and sky trends. Geelhart && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A mid level disturbance lifting northeast out of the central Plains will bring an opportunity for severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. In its wake, conditions turn dry and cooler for the upcoming weekend. Early next work week, thunderstorm chances will return with the approach of another trough lifting out of the Great Plains. ***** SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING ***** At 2pm, surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across central IL, with dewpoints ranging from the low to mid 60s south of roughly I-70 to low 40s west of the IL River. The more abundant moisture continues to surge north in advance of a mid-upper level disturbance lifting towards the region from the Central Plains, though this will eventually be limited by ongoing upstream convection across east-central MO. As these storms build northeast along the dryline and move into central IL, they will pose a risk for all severe hazards, including large-significant hail, destructive downburst winds; meanwhile, the risk for tornadoes will be higher in southeast and east-central IL where low level moisture is higher and hence LCL heights are lower. While convective mode is depicted in virtually every CAM as discrete to start, there may be a tendency towards upscale growth into a MCS capable of widespread damaging winds. Fortunately, these storms will be moving quickly, so the threat will be rapidly diminishing from west to east and we'll update the watch accordingly. By 9pm (if not sooner), the storms should be out of here. ***** GUSTY WINDS TODAY **** South-southwest winds will continue to gust 30 to 40 mph today, with some potential for sporadic gusts up to 50 mph especially across our western counties where winds aloft will be increasing with the approaching upper level trough. HRRR/RAP Bufkit soundings suggest top of channel winds could exceed 50 kt at times mainly west of the IL River, but we suspect a slight dry bias may be resulting in erroneously high values; nonetheless, we'll be monitoring surface observations in case we need to expand the Wind Advisory to include more counties. In addition, these strong winds could result in some localized blowing dust which could degrade visibility for motorists, especially considering we already had a few reports of such blowing dust yesterday and winds are running slightly stronger today. These strong winds, combined with dry low levels (RH values < 30%) across our north/northwest counties, are resulting in increased fire weather danger which will continue through the evening. See the fire weather section below for more information on that. ***** DRY AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND ***** The upper trough will shift east and surface high pressure build into the region in its wake tomorrow/night, giving us a dry and seasonably cool weekend with daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow may actually feel a bit chilly given northwest winds gusting to around 30 mph. The next opportunity for precipitation will arrive Sunday night/Monday into Tuesday of next week as another system lifts out of the Central Plains. A lot remains unclear about that system, including its arrival time and warmth/moisture return ahead of it, which suggests vast uncertainty surrounding both precipitation amounts and any severe weather potential. However, a strong push of cool advection appears increasingly likely towards the middle of next work week; blended guidance from NBM brings highs into only the low to mid 60s by Wednesday. Bumgardner && .AVIATION...0Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Line of strong to severe storms east of I-55 along the I-70 corridor will continue to move east, exiting the forecast area by 1z. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are expected the period, with some morning low VFR to MVFR stratus. Strengthening LLJ may lead to some LLWS this evening into tonight, especially for the I-55 and I-72 corridors, so have added mention to KBMI/KSPI/KDEC. Westerly winds remain strong to breezy through the forecast period, with gusts 20 to 30 knots. SG && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-037- 038. && $$