FXUS63 KILX 111728
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1128 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Day cloud phase satellite imagery shows low level clouds finally
breaking up across Champaign and Vermilion Counties, while some
mid level clouds are slowly dissolving further southwest. Thus,
anemic sunshine has returned, and will help bring our temperatures
up into the low-mid 40s for highs this afternoon -- near to just
slightly above normal for this time of year.

Bumgardner

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

08z/2am IR satellite imagery continues to show a persistent shield
of low clouds across northern Illinois southeastward into Indiana
with the back edge of the clouds along a Lasalle...to Rantoul...to
Paris line. With little or no advection in the cloud-bearing layer
beneath a ridge of high pressure, think these clouds will only
gradually edge eastward and may not depart the far NE KILX CWA
around Danville until mid to late morning. Meanwhile mid/high
clouds noted upstream across southern Iowa into Missouri will
skirt eastward as well...resulting in a partly sunny start to the
day across most of the area. NAM/RAP layer RH profiles suggest
cloud cover will thin/dissipate as the day goes on, so am
expecting mostly sunny skies across the board by afternoon. Early
morning lows will dip into the upper teens/lower 20s where skies
cleared overnight, but will rebound into the lower to middle 40s
thanks to the return of sunshine.

As high pressure shifts east of the region, a southerly return
flow will keep temps from dropping as low tonight...with lows only
reaching the middle to upper 20s. As has been advertised by the
past several model runs, a weak cold front is progged to pass
through central Illinois on Tuesday. With little or no moisture
for the boundary to work with, it will produce little more than a
few clouds and a shift in the wind. Highs on Tuesday will range
from the upper 30s far northwest around Galesburg and Lacon to the
lower 50s south of I-70.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quiet weather will prevail throughout the extended. Once upper
troughing over the Great Lakes lifts E/NE...a zonal flow pattern
will dominate the CONUS. Models continue to show a cut-off low
forming over the Great Basin, with 00z Dec 11 solutions all
shifting it E/SE to the Gulf Coast over the weekend. Meanwhile a
weaker northern-stream wave will track along the U.S./Canadian
border. Central Illinois will remain sandwiched between these two
systems, ensuring the continuation of mild and dry conditions.
Seasonable high temperatures in the lower to middle 40s on
Wednesday will warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s Friday
through Sunday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Southerly winds will generally hover around 10kt or slightly less
through the afternoon and evening, but then veer to northwest and
become briefly gusty early-mid Wednesday morning behind a cold
front which is slated to arrive at KPIA around 12z (6am CDT) and
KCMI by 15z (9 am CDT). As this front will cross the area dry, VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$