FXUS63 KIND 260007 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 807 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers through this evening, with some thunderstorms as well. Locally rainfall is possible - Brief cooldown Saturday before temperatures return to above normal levels by early next week - Active and stormy pattern from Tuesday through Thursday, with the potential for severe weather on Tuesday && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 807 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Scattered thunderstorms will continue along and south of the I-70 corridor over the next 1-2 hours before diminishing in coverage and intensity. Radar imagery shows a congealing line of sub-severe thunderstorms along a line from Rushville to Nashville Indiana associated with the cold front pushing southeastward. The environment ahead of the front remains marginally unstable with dew points in the mid 60s. Weak low and mid level lapse rates and little shear have kept storms relatively shallow and unable to grow upscale enough to support strong updrafts or severe weather this evening. These lower centroid storms have been able to produce quick burst of intense rainfall as warm rain processes occurred. Despite heavier rain at times, flooding has not been a threat today as storms have not been training over the same areas. There have been some reports of cold air funnels with a few cells, likely due to very localized increased shear and helicity from a weakening meso-low which pushed through a few hours ago. These pose no threat to life and property. For the 8pm - 10pm timeframe, expect sub-severe storms to continue east-southeast into southeast portions of Indiana with the main threats being locally heavy rain and isolated lightning strikes. Observations show that cooler, drier air is lagging behind the front and still in Northern Illinois and Indiana. Enough lift on the backside of the front has sparked off a few discrete showers and thunderstorms along the IN/IL border. This activity will push into Vigo, Sullivan, Clay, and Greene Counties over the next 1-2 hours before weakening. No severe weather expected with these either, just brief periods of heavy rain and an isolated lightning strike. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Rest of This Afternoon... As broad surface low pressure and an upper wave continue to push east, scattered to numerous showers will continue across central Indiana. Clouds and rain have kept temperatures and instability down into early afternoon, but satellite shows some thinning of the clouds upstream. This will allow some additional instability to build, so will keep mention of at least isolated thunder. This will also allow temperatures to rise some again. Shear is weak, and instability should remain low enough for any storms to remain subsevere. Given the moisture content of the atmosphere, locally heavy rain remains a threat. Tonight... A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain across the area ahead of a cold front this evening. Will keep some low PoPs then. Some clearing will be briefly around, but then as cold air flows in, lower clouds will return. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy once again by 12Z Saturday. Cold advection will bring temperatures back down into the 40s for lows most places. Saturday... Saturday will start out mostly cloudy to cloudy, but as high pressure builds in, clouds should mix out during the afternoon. Even with the return of sunshine during the afternoon, highs will only reach the upper 50s to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025 This Weekend Surface high pressure arrives following today's cold front and will promote generally quiet weather through the weekend. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average, which is around 66/45 for the Indy area this time of year. Guidance is showing ideal radiational cooling potential Saturday night. Some members even have lows dipping into the upper 30s across our north, which may be cold enough to allow for some patchy frost. As of right now, it does not appear that such cold will be widespread enough to warrant a frost advisory. A developing warm front may be close enough to the area to bring some rain on Sunday. There is little support within guidance, but a few members show it...so it's at least worth mentioning. The best chance of any rainfall on Sunday would be across southern portions of our area. Next Week Troughing out west looks to amplify over the weekend while gradually sliding eastward. The ejecting trough will induce cyclogenesis over the northern Plains on Monday, with strong warm air advection out ahead of it. Temperatures across Indiana look to be much warmer both Monday and Tuesday. The system's cold front arrives on Tuesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Guidance is in good agreement showing sufficient shear (30 to 50 knots) and instability (over 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE) for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Determining the primary hazard is not yet doable since guidance still varies with parameter space and the shear profile. Tuesday's cold front should clear the area by Wednesday morning, leaving us with quiet weather once again. Cool temperatures and northerly winds bring about a day or two of near average temps. The air mass behind Tuesday's front does not appear as cool as the one this weekend, so frost is not as much of a concern. If enough rain falls, however, there may be some patchy fog if skies clear and winds go calm. The front itself may end up stalling just to the south of Indiana, and the west coast trough looks to remain largely in place over the western US. A secondary mid-level wave may eject eastward and ride the front late Wednesday or Thursday. This feature may bring another round of rain and storms to Indiana, but details are even less clear at this range. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 751 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Impacts: - IFR ceilings developing from NW to SE beginning 00z and persisting into the overnight hours - Showers and t-storms diminishing in coverage 00z-03z. - Northerly winds sustained at 10-15 kts tonight through tomorrow Discussion: Satellite and radar imagery continues to show scattered convection in the vicinity of KHUF, KIND, and KBMG as a cold front pushes through the state. Recent trends indicate that the thunder and lightning threat has ended at KIND and will end at KBMG by 01z. A few discrete cells are upstream of KHUF, but should clear the area and diminish within the 01-02z timeframe. For the rest of the evening, expect low MVFR to IFR cigs to advect into the state from the northwest. High pressure building in from the north behind the front will trap leftover moisture within the boundary layer under developing low level inversion keeping low clouds around most of the night. Cigs may bounce back and forth between IFR and low MVFR through the night, but confidence still remains high in these low clouds persisting until around 13-15z Saturday. Cloud will gradually lift and clear out resulting in widespread VFR condition by early Saturday afternoon. Winds tonight become northerly behind the front and increase to 10- 15 kts as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the region. Sporadic gusts of 15-22 kts are possible as shallow mixing occurs under the inversion, but thinking the best chance for more frequent gusts will be mid to late morning Saturday as boundary layer heating increases before the low level jet shuts off. Gusts should diminish through saturday afternoon but still expect sustained winds in the 10-13 kt range. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ MESOSCALE...CM SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...Eckhoff AVIATION...CM