FXUS64 KJAN 310227 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
927 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Isolated showers mainly over east MS this afternoon have since
dissipated, leaving mostly clear conditions for the time being.
However, with increasing warm advection, development of low
stratus is likely during the overnight hours. A few warm
advection showers may accompany the increase in clouds as well by
the early morning hours, mainly west of the MS River. All in all,
the current forecast has a good handle on things, and no major
changes are planned at this time. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Tonight into early next week (Thursday-next Tuesday)...

Tonight into this weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Mean southeast
ridging will propagate eastward off the Atlantic seaboard late
week, with 500mb ridge nearly 590-592DM. Tonight will be
seasonably warm & quiet, with some rain in the northwest Delta by
daybreak & can't rule out some patchy fog in the Pine Belt to I-59
corridor near daybreak Thursday. Stronger upper level system is
progged to swing northeast across the Plains, helping a 1000mb sfc
low to develop & drive a frontal system across the Plains & into
the Gulf Coast states through tomorrow. Kept a persistence
forecast, with the highest confidence, more numerous to widespread
coverage (60-90%) of rain & some storms northwest of the Natchez
Trace, while along & to the southeast medium confidence of
isolated to scattered rain & storm coverage (40-55%). High
resolution convective allowing models (CAMs), including the HRRR,
indicate timing around mid- morning to midday in the northwest
Delta, I-55 corridor around 3-6PM & decreased coverage to the
southeast of the Trace. With rain & some storms likely around,
stay weather aware when out & about for any outdoor Halloween
activities Thursday evening, especially along & northwest of the
Natchez Trace corridor & into I-55.

With high precipitable water (PWs) of 1.7 to 2.0 inches, some
locally heavy rain can't be ruled out. Dry antecedent conditions
should suppress flooding concerns. In addition, there is some
increased low-deep layer flow, generally less than 30kts, so gusty
wind can't be ruled out in the northwest Delta in the early
afternoon hours, between noon to 6PM. In coordination with SPC,
kept the advertised "Marginal" risk in the HWO graphics, but it
has been shrunk some to the northwest. Forecast soundings
indicate limited lapse rates & not strong clockwise curvature to
hodographs, so main concern could be a few stronger storms or
isolated severe with gusty winds. Rain chances will persist into
the evening but coverage becomes more scattered (30-60%) late
Thursday evening & scattered southeast of the Trace (40-60%)
while high chances northwest of the Trace (65-90%). Coverage will
become more isolated to scattered Friday (20-60%). Seasonably
warm highs will lessen, some 8-15F above, in the 78-85F Thursday
& 74-84F Friday, while extremely seasonably warm lows, some 15-22F
above, in the 62-70F range tonight & 64-68F range Friday night.
Front should wash out, with drier low level moisture building into
next weekend. Highs will moderate again, some 12-15F above, in
the 80-86F range. Stronger ridging should shunt rain chances
northwest of the Natchez Trace into early Saturday to west of the
MS River corridor through the rest of this weekend.

Next week: Ridging is expected to amplify over the southeast states
again. This will be ahead of a strong upper jet nosing into the
Pacific Northwest & carving out a stout synoptic trough & low
pressure/frontal system into early next week. Strong warm
advection will aid in seasonably warm highs next Monday & Tuesday
(82-86F), some 12-16F above, & warm lows Sunday through Tuesday
nights (60-68F), some 15-22F above. Rain chances will be shunted
westward, but strong moist advection ahead of this frontal system
will help isolated to scattered (20-45%) rain & possibly some
storm coverage to build into into the northwest Delta areas by
Tuesday morning & spreading eastward through midweek. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Isolated light SHRA are moving across east MS and will diminish
within the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
across the region. A round of low stratus is expected late tonight
through Thu morning, resulting in MVFR conditions across a large
chunk of the area. Ceilings should gradually improve to VFR
through the day, but SHRA and TS are expected to move eastward
across the area from late morning through the afternoon hours,
which may result in visibility restrictions at times. Southerly
winds may gust to around 20 kt at times during the daytime hours.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  84  67  81 /  10  70  70  50
Meridian      64  83  63  81 /  20  40  40  30
Vicksburg     69  83  66  79 /  10  90  70  60
Hattiesburg   67  86  66  86 /   0  40  20  20
Natchez       70  83  67  81 /  10  80  50  50
Greenville    69  80  64  77 /  20  90  80  50
Greenwood     68  83  66  79 /  10  80  90  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/DC