FXUS64 KJAN 310227 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 927 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Isolated showers mainly over east MS this afternoon have since dissipated, leaving mostly clear conditions for the time being. However, with increasing warm advection, development of low stratus is likely during the overnight hours. A few warm advection showers may accompany the increase in clouds as well by the early morning hours, mainly west of the MS River. All in all, the current forecast has a good handle on things, and no major changes are planned at this time. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Tonight into early next week (Thursday-next Tuesday)... Tonight into this weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Mean southeast ridging will propagate eastward off the Atlantic seaboard late week, with 500mb ridge nearly 590-592DM. Tonight will be seasonably warm & quiet, with some rain in the northwest Delta by daybreak & can't rule out some patchy fog in the Pine Belt to I-59 corridor near daybreak Thursday. Stronger upper level system is progged to swing northeast across the Plains, helping a 1000mb sfc low to develop & drive a frontal system across the Plains & into the Gulf Coast states through tomorrow. Kept a persistence forecast, with the highest confidence, more numerous to widespread coverage (60-90%) of rain & some storms northwest of the Natchez Trace, while along & to the southeast medium confidence of isolated to scattered rain & storm coverage (40-55%). High resolution convective allowing models (CAMs), including the HRRR, indicate timing around mid- morning to midday in the northwest Delta, I-55 corridor around 3-6PM & decreased coverage to the southeast of the Trace. With rain & some storms likely around, stay weather aware when out & about for any outdoor Halloween activities Thursday evening, especially along & northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor & into I-55. With high precipitable water (PWs) of 1.7 to 2.0 inches, some locally heavy rain can't be ruled out. Dry antecedent conditions should suppress flooding concerns. In addition, there is some increased low-deep layer flow, generally less than 30kts, so gusty wind can't be ruled out in the northwest Delta in the early afternoon hours, between noon to 6PM. In coordination with SPC, kept the advertised "Marginal" risk in the HWO graphics, but it has been shrunk some to the northwest. Forecast soundings indicate limited lapse rates & not strong clockwise curvature to hodographs, so main concern could be a few stronger storms or isolated severe with gusty winds. Rain chances will persist into the evening but coverage becomes more scattered (30-60%) late Thursday evening & scattered southeast of the Trace (40-60%) while high chances northwest of the Trace (65-90%). Coverage will become more isolated to scattered Friday (20-60%). Seasonably warm highs will lessen, some 8-15F above, in the 78-85F Thursday & 74-84F Friday, while extremely seasonably warm lows, some 15-22F above, in the 62-70F range tonight & 64-68F range Friday night. Front should wash out, with drier low level moisture building into next weekend. Highs will moderate again, some 12-15F above, in the 80-86F range. Stronger ridging should shunt rain chances northwest of the Natchez Trace into early Saturday to west of the MS River corridor through the rest of this weekend. Next week: Ridging is expected to amplify over the southeast states again. This will be ahead of a strong upper jet nosing into the Pacific Northwest & carving out a stout synoptic trough & low pressure/frontal system into early next week. Strong warm advection will aid in seasonably warm highs next Monday & Tuesday (82-86F), some 12-16F above, & warm lows Sunday through Tuesday nights (60-68F), some 15-22F above. Rain chances will be shunted westward, but strong moist advection ahead of this frontal system will help isolated to scattered (20-45%) rain & possibly some storm coverage to build into into the northwest Delta areas by Tuesday morning & spreading eastward through midweek. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Isolated light SHRA are moving across east MS and will diminish within the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail across the region. A round of low stratus is expected late tonight through Thu morning, resulting in MVFR conditions across a large chunk of the area. Ceilings should gradually improve to VFR through the day, but SHRA and TS are expected to move eastward across the area from late morning through the afternoon hours, which may result in visibility restrictions at times. Southerly winds may gust to around 20 kt at times during the daytime hours. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 84 67 81 / 10 70 70 50 Meridian 64 83 63 81 / 20 40 40 30 Vicksburg 69 83 66 79 / 10 90 70 60 Hattiesburg 67 86 66 86 / 0 40 20 20 Natchez 70 83 67 81 / 10 80 50 50 Greenville 69 80 64 77 / 20 90 80 50 Greenwood 68 83 66 79 / 10 80 90 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/DC