FXUS62 KJAX 131334
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
934 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Patchy early morning fog, mainly across inland zones west of I-95,
has dissipated. Otherwise, no significant forecast changes have been
necessary to the forecast this morning.
Weather concerns continue to be lingering elevated surf and
increased rip current activity at the beaches today. Additionally,
tidal flooding continues along the St Johns river and Moderate to
Minor flooding is expected at times of high tide through the next
several days as runoff and drainage from central Florida
continues.
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Dry weather and mostly clear skies will be in place throughout
the day as high pressure over the region continues to dominate the
weather pattern through today and tonight. Early morning fog
developments over inland areas are expected to disperse by
midmorning. High temperatures for today will rise into the mid 80s
with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to
upper 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s for areas along
the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Large scale trough will dig in over eastern U.S. this period. Sfc
high pressure ridge will shift through the area early Monday
ahead of an approaching cold front. Westerly sfc winds up to
10-15 mph and gusty with well above normal temps anticipated
Monday ahead of the front. Max temps in the mid to upper 80s are
forecast, with a slight chance of a 90 deg reading across the
eastern zones. Mon night, the front will move into southeast GA
with some increase in clouds but no precip expected with the front
with little in the way of moisture depth. Compared to the last
runs from yesterday, the front is a little slower and anticipate
the front to still be over northeast FL in the predawn hours
Tuesday. The front is expected to briefly stall over area Tuesday
as strong shortwave energy digs in over parts of the Midwest
leading to frontal wave development across the FL panhandle and
far south GA. There appears to be enough moisture for some
isolated shower activity Tue-Tue night but models disagree with
the precip footprint along the front, and latest model consensus
guidance shows nothing more than 10 percent so will keep silent
POPs for now. Notably, the GFS shows fairly widespread precip
amounts of about 0.1 inches late Tue into Tue night. By late
Tuesday night, the front gets a strong push southeastward as
potent shortwave energy dives into AL and GA shoving the front
southward to central FL by sunrise Wednesday.
For temps rest of the period, cooler Tue-Tue night, with highs
Tue mid 70s for southeast GA and lower to mid 80s northeast FL.
Tue night, lows expected in the 50s most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
The main story through the long term period are cooler temps and
increased north and northeast winds. Temps will moderate by late
in the period due to onshore flow. A few showers possible Fri-
Sat. Breezy to windy conditions look possible along the coastal
areas, especially northeast FL, from Wednesday through Saturday.
These northeast winds will result in elevated extratropical surge
values to the coast at least 1 foot, which when combined with full
moon by Thursday will bring coastal flooding concerns to northeast
FL and southeast GA beaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Intermittent fog and low stratus will impact inland sites through
around 13z, followed by improvement to VFR. Light northwesterly
winds develop later this morning (around 15z) and continue through
most of the day except at coastal airfields where a weak sea
breeze will push inland. Winds trend calm after sunset and clear
sky conditions are expected amid a very dry airmass tonight into
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024
High pressure will shift south of our area tonight, resulting in
westerly winds gradually increasing through Monday evening. A
strong cold front will then push southeastward across our local
waters late Monday night and Tuesday morning, resulting in winds
shifting to become northwesterly. High pressure building over the
Upper Midwest in the wake of this dry frontal passage on Tuesday
night will shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley by Thursday and
will wedge down the southeastern seaboard later this week as it
strengthens along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Northerly winds will
surge to at least Caution levels on Tuesday night, followed by
breezy northeasterly winds on Wednesday and Thursday that may
strengthen further late this week, resulting in gradually building
seas.
Rip Currents: Elevated surf and rip current channels formed from
the past weather event will lead to high risk of rip currents
again today.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
A Coastal Flood warning remains in effect for the St Johns River
Basin around the Downtown JAX area southward and for the
Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler county. Moderate flooding is
expected at most locations around times of high tide. Water levels
have fallen to a moderate flood along Deep Creek, with a gradual
decline continuing on Sunday after the record crest that occurred
due to rainfall runoff late on Thursday. Mostly minor flooding
continues from eastern Duval county southward along the coast into
St Johns county, with locally moderate flooding possible.
Southeast GA: Moderate flooding is ongoing along the Alapaha
River near the gauge at Statenville, where water levels should
fall back to minor flooding by Monday. Water levels along the
Altamaha river at the Charlotteville gauge have fallen below flood
stage, and water levels at Baxley and Doctortown will fall below
flood stage by early Monday morning. Minor flooding along lower
portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson will
continue through early portions of next week.
Northeast FL: Minor flooding is expected along lower and middle
portions of the Santa Fe River during the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 58 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 81 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 84 57 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 82 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 84 55 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 85 58 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for FLZ033-038-132-
137-138-325.
High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
133-138.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125-
133-225.
GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&
$$