FXUS63 KJKL 111813

National Weather Service Jackson KY
113 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Issued at 112 PM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Forecast is track, and only minor adjustments were made for early
afternoon obs.

UPDATE Issued at 917 AM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Any flurries which were out there look to be gone, and have been
removed from today's forecast. Otherwise, latest conditions/obs
have been blended into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Did an update to the forecast mainly to tamp back the PoPs this
morning as any snow showers have faded to just some flurries and
large portions of the lower clouds have started to break up.
Still expect some light pcpn and a mix of low clouds around into
noon, but the threat of accumulating snow has essentially ended.
Did also add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the HWO, zones, and SAFS.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Key Messages:

* An area of mostly flurries, but some snow showers, will move
  through eastern Kentucky early this morning some light
  accumulations possible in the far southeast - generally above
  2000 feet.
* The flurries end from west to east by noon most places,
  followed by clearing skies.
* A very cold night follows with many of the valleys seeing lows
  in the lower 20s.
* Milder and mostly sunny on Tuesday.

09Z sfc analysis shows low pressure departing the area to the east
as part of a major late fall storm system pummeling the Mid
Atlantic Coast and New England. In its wake, high pressure is
building into Kentucky from the west. This process is bringing in
a drier air mass on northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Meanwhile, the
lingering cyclonic sfc flow and an upslope component to the
winds, will be enough to wring out some flurries from the low
clouds over the area early this morning. We could still see some
light snow accumulations at the highest points - above 2000 feet
in the far southeast. On radar, a band of higher returns is
slipping southeast through the area. This brought some flurries
and snow grains to the JKL office earlier with a dusting of snow
showing up on the vehicles. Temperatures are mainly running in the
lower 30s through the area with dewpoints generally in the mid

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a 5h trough axis passing east of the
JKL CWA early this morning with the bulk of any mid level energy.
Heights rebound at mid levels this morning but are held back by
more, but much weaker, impulses sliding through the region in
northwest flow. The flow then tilts more westerly and zonal later
tonight with the energy aloft mostly slipping east out of the
area. Benign weather follows as troughing to the north is held in
abeyance by the digging of a deep, cutting off, trough well
upstream over the Great Basin - likely to further lift heights
over Kentucky and the region through mid week. Given the small
spread among the models the blended NBM solution was used as the
starting point to the grids, though with additional climatological
enhancements for the upslope pcpn tendencies in the far east this

Sensible weather will feature lingering flurries for much of the
area this morning as snow showers come to an end over the far
southeast with some light accumulations in the higher far eastern
terrain. Returning sunshine will do little to warm the area this
afternoon as highs end up in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clear
skies, light winds, and the sfc high passing by, then make for a
chilly night of radiational cooling - setting up a decent ridge
to valley temperature split into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will end
up as a warmer and dry day with high pressure now off to the
southeast and sunshine ample enough to see temperatures rebound
into the upper 40s and lower 50s for that afternoon.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to enhance the
terrain distinctions tonight. As for the PoPs, did again beef
them up in the climatological favored areas of the far east for
limited upslope snow showers early this morning - zero thereafter.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 500 AM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Key Messages:

* A dry stretch is expected from Wednesday through Saturday before
  low end rain chances enter the forecast on Sunday, however, model
  guidance has fluctuated with the weekend storm.
* Temps start out near normal Wednesday and Thursday before increasing
  to slightly above normal for the remainder of the period.

The long term will start out benign with zonal flow in place from
the Ohio Valley and Southeast with a surface high centered across
the central Appalachians. A closed upper level low will be located
near the southern end of the Hudson Bay with a mirrored surface low
and cold front draped through Quebec and back toward the southern
Ohio Valley. Winds will start out southwesterly but will veer to the
northwest as the cold front sags southward through the Commonwealth.
Lack of moisture across the region will lead to a dry passage of the
front. Another closed low will be located over the Great Basin
region and will continue to deepen as it drops farther southeast
toward the southern half of the Four Corners region. In response to
this, short wave ridging will amplify from the Southeast to the
Midwest by Thursday night. Global model solutions continue to
fluctuate heading into the weekend as a northern stream short wave
drops from central Canada into the upper Plains and Great Lakes
Friday night into Saturday. The closed low continues to trek
eastward as the northern shortwave enters the Ohio Valley. Moisture
will initially advect northward from the Gulf into the mid
Mississipi Valley but as the southern stream disturbance continues
to progress eastward, it will cut off moisture advection northward.
This will lea to mostly dry conditions for the area as the two
disturbances split eastern Kentucky. There is some model
disagreement and the NBM does have slight chance (20-30%) entering
the forecast Sunday into Sunday night but trends will continue to be
monitored as the system comes into range of higher res models.

Sensible weather will remain dry Wednesday through Saturday with
highs starting out near normal in the upper 40s for WEdnesday and
Thursday before increasing to slightly above normal in the
low 50s through the remainder of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

MVFR ceilings persisted over roughly the northeast half of the
forecast area at the start of the period, with VFR to the
southwest. Clouds will continue to clear out to the northeast this
afternoon, with VFR expected area wide early this evening and then
lasting through the end of the period.