FXUS63 KLBF 302323
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of showers will lift northeast from Colorado across western
  into central Nebraska today. Highs today will be much cooler
  behind a cold front.

- Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday into the first of the
  weekend. Warmer temperatures can be expected during this
  period. Increasing chances for precipitation will arrive
  Saturday night into Sunday.

- Watching a potential storm system that will move northeast
  across the area the first of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Upper level trough/cold pool will lift from eastern Colorado through
western and central Nebraska this afternoon and evening. As this
occurs expect the trough to take on a slight negative tilt. This
will allow for better moisture transport into western Nebraska and a
small deformation axis to develop. Within this axis the probability
of receiving a quarter of an inch of is high. Appears the center of
the axis should extend roughly from near Imperial/Ogallala, eastward
toward North Platte and then northeastward into central Nebraska and
the Sandhills. Some individual model runs have nearly a half inch
within a narrow band, so some could receive some much needed
moisture. Appears that precipitation will end before temperatures
cool enough for any snow to mix in tonight, so will keep that out
of the forecast.

System quickly departs east of the area Thursday with surface high
pressure building eastward from the Rockies. The pattern is
progressive, and by afternoon the high should be centered across
eastern KS. A Leeward surface trough will already be in the process
of developing along the western high plains ahead of the next
approaching shortwave. Return southerly low-level flow will develop
by afternoon. Some what of a warm up Thursday, but some cooler air
will be recycled back northward, so highs will be near or slightly
below normal.

Weak shortwave crosses the northern plains Friday. A surface low
will track across South Dakota with a Pacific cold front moving east
across our area south of the low. Could see an elevated increase in
fire weather concerns west of Highway 83 across the western
Sandhills. Temperatures will warm into the lower 60s and humidity
values fall into the 20-25% range with wind gust potential right
around 25 mph from the northwest behind the front. Good humidity
recovery Friday night and not expecting any critical fire weather
conditions at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

An upper level ridging pattern will develop across the central CONUS
ahead of a deepening trough along the west coast this weekend.
GEFS/ENS indicate a high probability of much above normal
temperatures, especially Sunday. This pattern would support highs
possibly into the 70s on Sunday. A decent increase in low-level
moisture/dew points should help keep fire weather concerns at bay
for the most part.

Questions then about how the west coast upper trough will evolve as
it progresses into the central plains the first of next week. One
thing that will be lacking is cold air, so any wet snow that could
perhaps mix in would have to be dynamically forced. Chances of that
look low at this time and should see precipitation fall mostly as
rain. Ensemble consensus would be for around an average of a quarter
of an inch for western Nebraska. There remains differences in the
operational models, with the GFS much wetter and farther north,
while the ECMWF is drier and has a more southern track. Obviously a
system to watch the next few days.

Pattern looks to remain active as we head into the middle of next
week as another trough digs into the western CONUS. GEFS would hint
at this remaining a positively tilted trough which usually doesn't
bode well for much precipitation across our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

A broad area of rain showers will continue to move across
central Nebraska, exiting eastward through 06Z Thursday. MVFR
ceilings with brief pockets of IFR ceilings will continue
through a bulk of the period with a gradual return to VFR
ceilings Thursday morning and afternoon. Brief visibility reductions
down to 6SM will be possible across portions northern and north
central Nebraska (VTN) late this evening, otherwise not
anticipating widespread visibility reductions. Winds will
remain out of the northwest with a gradual shift towards the
southeast by Thursday afternoon at 10 kts or less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Viken