FXUS63 KLBF 111755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023


- Some light snow is possible from the panhandle into the
  sandhills late Monday night into Tuesday with little impact

- Generally quiet weather with a warming trend from midweek


Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

After we start the week with quiet weather and above normal
temperatures with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, a cold
front will push into the region from the north late today into
tonight. High pressure will then build down behind the front
from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi valley, allowing
the boundary to move back northward as a warm front late tonight
into Tuesday. There will be ample isentropic lift along with
mid level FGEN forcing and deformation with the returning
boundary, and ensemble guidance indicates moisture return will
be a bit more robust than was indicated a few runs ago. The net
result will be a band of light snow developing upstream across
southeast WY and northeast CO and pushing up through southwest
Nebraska before daybreak Tuesday and into the panhandle and
sandhills as it enhances Tuesday morning.

Ensemble guidance and QPF plumes are tightly clustered around
very light liquid amounts of just a couple of hundreths,
translating to probabilistic snow amounts of 0.5" or less for
the 50th percentile. Also working against higher snow amounts
favoring light accumulations are the are the lack of favorable
lapse rates or stability profiles for enhancement of snowfall
from convective banding or embedded convective elements. The
sum total looks to be a low impact light accumulation/dusting of
snow mainly from the panhandle through the sandhills on

Will be watching arrival of later guidance for any upward trends,
but current probabilistic guidance indicates the potential for a
high end accumulation of an inch or more is well under 10 percent.
Extensive cloud cover and evaporative cooling from precipitation
will keep temperatures in the 30s on Tuesday.


Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Ensemble guidance has remained very consistent over the past
several days in developing a split flow regime aloft with a
closed low moving across the southwestern US topped by a large
northern stream ridge. This will keep any cold arctic air locked
up well to our north with the main storm tracks splitting the
region to our north and south. So after southerly flow brings a
surge of moisture into the region Wednesday into Thursday with
potential for some rain showers from Interstate 80 southward,
the closed low moving through the southwest will shunt the
better precipitation potential to our south and keep the region
dry through the latter portion of the workweek and into the
weekend. NAEFS and EFI/SoT guidance are not showing any notable
signals for high impact weather, so aside from a gradual warming
trend to weekend temperatures mainly in the 50s our weather
from midweek onward looks to be relatively quiet.


Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR aviation conditions will continue through the afternoon and into
the evening. Light northwest winds under 10 knots with mostly clear
skies continue. Expect some increasing clouds throughout the evening
as the next disturbance arrives tonight. Light snow is possible
across the Panhandle and into the Sandhills through Tuesday morning.
Some snow showers may briefly impact KVTN by late morning, although,
the only major impact should be some reductions in visibility down
to 5 to 6 miles.