FXUS63 KLBF 111755 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some light snow is possible from the panhandle into the sandhills late Monday night into Tuesday with little impact expected. - Generally quiet weather with a warming trend from midweek onward. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 After we start the week with quiet weather and above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, a cold front will push into the region from the north late today into tonight. High pressure will then build down behind the front from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi valley, allowing the boundary to move back northward as a warm front late tonight into Tuesday. There will be ample isentropic lift along with mid level FGEN forcing and deformation with the returning boundary, and ensemble guidance indicates moisture return will be a bit more robust than was indicated a few runs ago. The net result will be a band of light snow developing upstream across southeast WY and northeast CO and pushing up through southwest Nebraska before daybreak Tuesday and into the panhandle and sandhills as it enhances Tuesday morning. Ensemble guidance and QPF plumes are tightly clustered around very light liquid amounts of just a couple of hundreths, translating to probabilistic snow amounts of 0.5" or less for the 50th percentile. Also working against higher snow amounts favoring light accumulations are the are the lack of favorable lapse rates or stability profiles for enhancement of snowfall from convective banding or embedded convective elements. The sum total looks to be a low impact light accumulation/dusting of snow mainly from the panhandle through the sandhills on Tuesday. Will be watching arrival of later guidance for any upward trends, but current probabilistic guidance indicates the potential for a high end accumulation of an inch or more is well under 10 percent. Extensive cloud cover and evaporative cooling from precipitation will keep temperatures in the 30s on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Ensemble guidance has remained very consistent over the past several days in developing a split flow regime aloft with a closed low moving across the southwestern US topped by a large northern stream ridge. This will keep any cold arctic air locked up well to our north with the main storm tracks splitting the region to our north and south. So after southerly flow brings a surge of moisture into the region Wednesday into Thursday with potential for some rain showers from Interstate 80 southward, the closed low moving through the southwest will shunt the better precipitation potential to our south and keep the region dry through the latter portion of the workweek and into the weekend. NAEFS and EFI/SoT guidance are not showing any notable signals for high impact weather, so aside from a gradual warming trend to weekend temperatures mainly in the 50s our weather from midweek onward looks to be relatively quiet. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 VFR aviation conditions will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. Light northwest winds under 10 knots with mostly clear skies continue. Expect some increasing clouds throughout the evening as the next disturbance arrives tonight. Light snow is possible across the Panhandle and into the Sandhills through Tuesday morning. Some snow showers may briefly impact KVTN by late morning, although, the only major impact should be some reductions in visibility down to 5 to 6 miles. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Kulik