FXUS64 KLCH 111620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1020 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023


Wx map shows 1027 mb surface high pressure ridge from Southern
Louisiana to Tennessee this morning. With the weak pressure
gradient, winds will mainly be variable around 5 mph or less today
and tonight. Expected highs in the upper 50s to near 60 this
afternoon. Current forecast on track with no updates needed at
this time.



(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Current temps are in the upper 20s and lower 30s north of I10 with
middle 30s south of I10 and 40s along the immediate coast. Expect
these temps to drop a couple more degrees through the morning with
widespread frost likely for many this morning.

Today will feature plenty of sunshine with highs in the lower
60s. Winds will be light as high pressure builds across the

Strong high pressure shifts east Tuesday/Wednesday brining gusty
easterly winds. Clouds will increase with highs in the lower and
middle 60s.


(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

The extended period is shaping up to be rather breezy as the region
finds itself squeezed between a sprawling surface high meandering
across the eastern U.S. and a developing low over the Bay of
Campeche and Yucutan Peninsula. Consistent East Northeasterly winds
between 15-20 knots are expected Thursday through Sunday with winds
of 20+ knots over the coastal waters. The long fetch is expected to
push wave heights to 9-12 feet over the outer coastal waters
Thursday through Saturday. As the surface low lifts slowly Northeast
across the Gulf of Mexico from late Thursday through Saturday,
showers will develop over the coastal waters, but guidance has been
and continues to be in good agreement on this activity remaining
offshore Thursday and Thursday night.

Guidance has come into significantly better agreement on the
progression of an upper level low pushing east out of the
southwestern U.S. late in the week compared to 24 hours ago although
there remain some modest differences in timing. With the center of
the low expected to move offshore, severe weather isn't expected to
be a concern, but the weekend is looking rather wet with a 24-30
hour period of widespread light to moderate showers sometime from
Friday afternoon through Sunday evening.


(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected through the period. Northeast to east winds
5-7 kts this afternoon, becoming nearly calm by 00z, and east around
7-8 kts after 15z Tuesday.



Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Conditions will improve today as high pressure builds in
overhead. Winds and seas will increase by Tuesday night and remain
elevated into Friday as a tightening pressure gradient produces a
prolonged and strong easterly fetch across the Northern Gulf of
Mexico. Wave heights may reach 7-11 feet in the outer waters by

Small craft should begin exercising caution Tuesday morning, with
Advisories likely needed starting in the afternoon or evening.


Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

It is not likely that any records get broken tonight. Low
temperature records for 12/11 are as follows:

                                Temp(F) / Year
Lake Charles            28 / 1995*
Beaumont                        28 / 1958*
Alexandria                      20 / 1898
Lafayette                       23 / 1898
New Iberia                      27 / 1995

* Asterisk denotes a record which tied itself previously.


AEX  59  29  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  60  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  60  37  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0