FXUS64 KLCH 080507
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Northerly flow in the wake of this morning's fropa continue to
advect drier air into the region this evening with dewpoints
presently in the mid 60s. Expect dewpoints to continue falling
into the mid 50s by morning with overnight lows falling into the
low to mid 60s. Current temps and dewpoints are running about
3-5 degrees warmer than forecast, so adjusted these upward through
late night, but no changes were made to forecast lows.
Jones
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
A cold front is stalling over the northern Gulf of Mexico allowing
reinforcing N’ly flow across the region. The western 2/3rds of the
CWA, generally north and west of the I-10 / I-24 corridor, have
cleared precipitation with thinning cloud cover as expected. A slow
progression of dry air entrainment shall allow portions coastal LA
along the Atchafalaya basin to clear overnight after diurnal showers
dissipate.
Concerning hazards: enhanced northerly flow from the pressure
gradient exhibited by the robust high pressure regime over the
Midwest combined low pressure troughing along the western Gulf of
Mexico will created hazardous conditions offshore through the
remainder of the weekend. A Gale Warning remains in effect until 7PM
for offshore waters (20-60NM) from Cameron LA to High Island TX. A
Small Craft Advisory for all offshore waters will continue as gusts
up to 35kts with 9ft seas remain before easing and abating Sunday
night with the advisory continuing until 7AM Monday CDT. Do note,
highest winds and seas to be best favored over SW'rn offshore waters.
A refreshing lull in active weather will also be in place for much
of the short term, inland. Breezy NE’ly winds and advection of
cooler, or rather more mild air, will keep high temperatures down to
the low to mid 80’s with skies continuing to thin / clear west to
east. This mild environment with northerly flow will continue
through remainder of Sunday and Monday as the high pressure pattern
to the north broadens east over the Carolinas by Monday night.
Meanwhile the aforementioned cold front transition to a stationary
boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico with a gradual deepening
of pressure beginning of the western Gulf of Mexico. Deepening low
pressure will allow for the boundary to meander toward the coast and
the potential for some isolated shower activity along coastal
Parishes begins to creep back in as lower end PoPs trending into
Tuesday morning.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
The long-range outlook beginning Tuesday continues with the
deepening low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico being the
main focus leading into the mid week. At the present time of this
discussion, the National Hurricane Center has yielded the area of
low pressure over the Bay of Campeche a 70% chance to develop into a
tropical cyclone. It should be noted, at this time, there are zero
forecast tropical impacts for SETX and SWLA as the feature is still
quite unorganized and well away from the area. However, regardless
of development, if any, there remains high confidence that low
pressure troughing developing the SW Gulf will lift the stationary
boundary inland across SETX / SWLA. Therefore, scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored during the mid week
(Tuesday through Thursday). Several sample forecast soundings
illustrate PWAT’s above 2.00”, well into the 90th Percentile. While
it is too soon to elaborate on the nature of how the precipitation
patterns will unfold during this time, inland Flash Flooding will be
a threat that should be strongly monitored. Please note, whether or
not tropical development occurs, the confidence in a flood threat at
this time remains greater than a wind threat per latest analysis
from the WPC and SPC. Naturally, with the influx of Gulf moisture
and cloud cover, high temperatures will remain 5 - 10°F cooler than
seasonable norms during this time frame.
By Friday, the unsettled tropical wave and associated weather will
be shifting NE across the SECONUS. Precipitation will clear to the
east with signals in the long range guidance showing a drying trend
into next weekend.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
A pressure gradient in the wake of a frontal passage will maintain
elevated northerly flow through the day before weakening somewhat
this evening. VFR ceilings will prevail through the period. AEX
has been reporting HZ most of the afternoon and expect this to
continue through the early morning which may periodically produce
some minor visibility restrictions.
Jones
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024
The pressure gradient will gradually tighten causing winds and
seas to increase. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
through the rest of the period with a boundary remaining in the
GoM. A cold front is expected to move over the waters, shifting
winds out of the northeast and increasing in speeds tonight into
Saturday. For the 0-20 and 20-60nm marine zones (with exception to
GMZ470) a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect until Monday. With
stronger gusts expected in GMZ470 a Gale Watch is in effect until
this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 82 60 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 84 66 82 63 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 81 67 85 66 / 30 10 10 10
BPT 86 68 86 65 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66