FXUS64 KLIX 181151
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
551 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 550 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
- There is a low chance for frozen precipitation before sunrise.
- Wind chills in the mid 20s are possible across the area
overnight.
- Portions of the area along/north of I-12 in LA as well as the
MS coast could see sub freezing overnight lows for 3
consecutive mornings, through Tuesday morning.
- Small Craft headlines in effect across the coastal waters until
midday Sunday, due to 20-25 knot north winds and seas to 6-9
feet offshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Upper trough axis was moving through Arkansas and east Texas at mid-
evening with an upstream shortwave over the Dakotas. Upper ridging
remained near stationary along the Pacific Coast.
At the surface, boundaries representing progressively colder surges
of air continued to move southeastward. Last night's cold front is
well beyond the south edge of our coastal waters. The next was
over southwest Mississippi, with a third moving into southern
Arkansas and north Texas at 11 PM. While there is quite a bit of
precipitation showing up on radar across the southern half of the
area at this evening, there hasn't been much reaching the ground
to this point. Analysis of the evening soundings and radar data
indicate any potential frozen hydrometeors aren't getting much
below 4,000 feet before melting. Additionally, as the upper
trough continues to shift east and southeast, it should serve to
force the moisture further southeastward. Temperatures were only
just starting to fall into the upper 30s over southwest
Mississippi at 11 PM CST, with the freezing line near Interstate
20. While the threat of observing very light sleet or snow
can't be entirely eliminated near and south of Interstate 10 over
the next 3-6 hours, no significant impacts are expected.
Clouds should be gone, or nearly so, by sunrise. Forecast soundings
indicate the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere will be too
dry to support clouds for much of the area through sunrise Tuesday.
Highs Sunday should top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s with low
humidity, likely below 30 percent in the afternoon. Clear skies and
calm winds will make for near perfect radiating conditions early
Monday morning. Much of the north half of the area could fall below
freezing for several hours Monday morning. At present, it appears
that areas south of Interstate 10 could stay near or just above
freezing. That's going to be a close call, and day shift can
reassess in the morning. Highs Monday may get pretty close to 60
before the cold air gets reinforced (again). Tuesday morning could
once again bring sub-freezing temperatures to at least the north
half of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Upper flow becomes more zonal for Tuesday and much of the remainder
of the workweek. A southern stream shortwave moves along the
northern Gulf Coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Instability is
very limited, or non-existent through Friday, if current forecast
soundings are any indication, so just rain showers with the
Wednesday night/Thursday system. A bit of a break in the weather for
about 36 hours before another potential rain over the weekend.
Tuesday will probably be about 5 degrees cooler than Monday, before
a moderating trend kicks in on Wednesday. Temperatures are expected
to be near normal Wednesday and then a bit above for the back end of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Northerly winds will be gusty through the morning but will ease
for through the remainder of the day. VFR will be the rule through
this taf set.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Multiple surges of cold air are moving across the local area into
the coastal waters. We will leave the Small Craft Advisory in place
until expiration. Wind speeds should drop off quickly during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. A reinforcing backdoor cold
front moves into the Gulf Monday night. Winds may bump back up to
exercise caution category but not looking like advisory level
conditions at the moment. A short-term period of return flow does
develop mid week as post front ridge situated north of the region
slides east before the next cold front comes through late in the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 45 29 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 48 30 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 49 29 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 50 35 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 49 32 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 50 26 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RW