FXUS64 KLIX 250909 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 409 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Dew pts ticked up a degree for our western counties/parishes yesterday. One or two locations tacked on 2 degrees. This may be just enough this morning to get some patchy fog for areas around the Atchafalaya Basin. The normal radiation patchy fog should hold for all other areas which is where the observation locations will show dense fog but it will be locked to the forested, grassy, or shallow marshy areas and with some light layering over roadways. Fog depth and density will continue to be watched for the next several days as conditions are definitely in place that promote it with only deep moisture not fitting the bill for most places. Most patchy fog areas will be in areas outside cities and downtown locations(heat islands). Patchy dense fog can be more dangerous than widepread dense fog due to most if not everyone driving slower in widespread fog since everyone's vis is relatively similar. But with patchy dense fog, this is not the case and travel is significantly reduced once vis drops over a short distance whereas those driving toward the fog has great vis with higher speeds and can not see the person has now slowed in front of them. If dense fog forms this morning, it would be very rapid, temporary and right at sunrise. At the moment, dense fog is not anticipated but if this changes, we will issue a dense fog advisory for those impacted areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 A front is expected to move toward the area by the weekend but stall across Miss/Bama before reaching our area. This keeps our area in dry but mild conditions for the weekend into next week. This front will make conditions even better for dense fog provided it can draw enough moisture northward over the weekend. Shallow radiation fog will continue each morning at the very least. We will need to take things a day and even an hour at a time with radiation fog as it is the most sensitive. There is now some real probabilities of rain at the very end of this fcast. But since this is so far out, it could and most likely will change; that change could be for better or worse. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 VFR through the daylight hours of this cycle. Some MIFG is possible at a few sites this morning but this should not impact runways for sites east of the Miss River with exception to BTR. BTR and HUM will have the best, although still small probabilities of IFR/LIFR conditions. This process should play out the same way again tonight/Sat morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 A sfc high has stalled inland of the central gulf coast. Easterly winds will remain over the next few days and should be around 10kt for most of this fcast for the outer waters. Wind direction looks to remain constant with some light and variable conditions over protected waters from time to time. No real rain chances to speak of with the exception of a passing shower well offshore. A few passing easterly waves, during the beginning to middle of next week, could cause E to SE winds to rise to around 20kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 89 62 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 85 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 83 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 89 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE