FXUS64 KLIX 172328
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
628 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Cancelled Heat Advisory at 5 PM CDT as thunderstorms and
associated outflow knocked temperatures down into the 70s and
lower 80s, with no short term expectation of significant recovery.
Will issue another update in the next hour or so to scale back
evening rain chances considerably as most convection has moved
offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday morning)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A shortwave boundary is expected to move through the area and linger
through the weekend, enhancing rain chances for the area. Looking
at models, these storms will continue off and on Thursday through
the weekend, but especially will be firing up convection during
the peak afternoon heating hours. These storms will be highly
efficient as PW value are around 2.2-2.4 inches for the next few
days, which is well above the SPC sounding climatology. And with
plenty of moisture to work with throughout the atmospheric column
and models indicating the potential for training/slow-moving
storms, flash flooding will be the primary concern with these
storms. Lightning and gusty winds (30- 50mph) will also be hazards
and a severe storm will be possible through the weekend. As a
result of increase PoPs, the heat concerns will decrease for a
while. Highs through the weekend will be in the upper 80s. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

As the boundary lifts over our area Sunday into Monday, an
easterly wave will influence the Gulf of Mexico, again enhancing
rain chances for our area for the beginning of next week. Once
again, rain will be quite efficient given the abundant tropical
moisture associated with the easterly wave moving into the area.
PW values look high and PoPs will be enhanced. As this rainfall
will be efficient and somewhat slow moving in recent model trends,
we will need to monitor for potential flash flooding concerns
next week as well. The enhanced rainfall next week will keep
temperatures near normal, so heat concerns will not be an issue
for next week for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions at forecast issuance time. Any TSRA has shifted
well south of all terminals, and are not anticipated during the
overnight hours at this time. MVFR conditions could redevelop
around sunrise Thursday, especially at KMCB and KHUM. Another day
of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA is expected on Thursday, with
most of the threat of TSRA expected beyond 17z. MVFR ceilings and
IFR visibilities with any direct impacts, but at this time do not
have a lot of confidence in narrowing down timing at specific
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A benign weather pattern will be setting up over the area
for the next week. Southerly and moderate (10-15kts) will be in
place for the next week. Daily showers and storms will be possible
with lightning and brief, gusty winds (30-40mph), which could be a
hazard for mariners. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  71  85 /  30  90  70  90
BTR  78  93  76  90 /  30  90  60  90
ASD  77  93  75  88 /  30  90  70 100
MSY  78  91  78  88 /  30  90  60 100
GPT  77  91  76  88 /  30  80  80 100
PQL  77  93  76  91 /  30  80  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...MSW