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Georgia Forestry Commission
5645 Riggins Mill Road Dry Branch, Georgia 31020 1-800-GATREES or (478) 751-3500 |
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FXUS65 KLKN 080937
AFDEKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
236 AM PDT TUE JUN 8 2004
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS LOW TRACKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY IT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW SOUTH...WEST OF
THE SIERRAS BEFORE TURNING INLAND OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. BOTH GFS
AND META HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BOTH HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRONG WINDS SOME OVER NRN NYE
AND WHITE PINE COUNTY...HOLDING OFF ON STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NOW. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FOR THESE AREAS...SO WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WORDING
IN THE ADVISORY WILL HINT AT STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY FOR WHITE
PINE AND NRN NYE COUNTIES TO AVOID CONFUSION BETWEEN THIS
ADVISORY AND A HIGH WIND WATCH TOMORROW. ETA SHOWING 35KTS
SUSTAINED AT ELY WEDNESDAY AFTN...WITH NEAR 30KTS AT TPH. SO
GREATEST THREAT OF WARNING WINDS SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AFTN. NEED TO
WATCH FOR ADVISORY WINDS AT ENV AS WELL WEDNESDAY. MOS GUIDANCE
SHOWING 25-30KTS SUSTAINED WEDNESDAY AFTN FROM THE NW AS THE LOW
PASSES. WOULD ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE COMING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS MAY DECOUPLE...THUS THINKING
ADVISORY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 80+ KT JET ROUNDS THE LOW AND PUSHES
NORTHWARD. PUTS MOST OF OUR WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON LFQ SIDE
OF JET. GFS SHOWING NEG 2-3 LIS OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LINGERING POPS ACROSS NE ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY AS MDLS
SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH REST OF
THE EXTENDED...THOUGH GFS SHOWS ANOTHER VORT PUSHING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING BACK IN SATURDAY SO WARMING SHOULD BEGIN ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 455 AND 457. HIGH WIND
ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NVZ013-035.
&&
$$
CLAYCOMB