FXUS63 KLMK 251102 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 702 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today, a cold front will bring scattered showers to the region. * Seasonable temps and dry weather expected this weekend, with a warm-up and breezy conditions next week. The dry and breezy weather will result in an elevated wildfire risk across the region, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. * Rain chances return on Halloween, though at this time no thunderstorms are expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Today, an upper level trough will push a cold front southeast through the Lower Ohio Valley. The front which is extending south from a surface low in Ontario will bring scattered showers to southern Indiana and central Kentucky. There is a slight chance for thunder, but model soundings continue to show very little instability, and what is there, is elevated. These soundings also show dry air near the surface which will limit rainfall totals for some. The best chances for rain will likely be across the northern half of the CWA, across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Still, most in this area will see less than 0.10" of rainfall. Areas across south central Kentucky may only see a hundreth or two, if they are one of the lucky ones. Strong warm air advection will drive southern winds to around 10 mph, but gusts could reach to around 20 mph at times. This is expected to lift highs into the mid 80s near Bowling Green. Those farther north with the additional cloud cover and rain showers will be limited closer to 80. Tonight, as the front continues pushing south, winds will veer towards the north behind the front as remaining showers work south over southern Kentucky. With skies remaining mostly cloudy for most of the night, cold air advection will drop temperatures into the mid 40s over southern Indiana to the mid 50s in southern Kentucky by Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 The weekend: A dome of high pressure advancing from Iowa to New Jersey will provide the middle Ohio Valley with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, northeast breezes, and seasonable temperatures Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the middle and upper 60s with lows Sunday morning from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Monday through Wednesday: A meridional 5H pattern will develop during this time frame with a trough over the western U.S. and a ridge in the east. This indicates a warm and dry pattern for us, supported by our position between surface high pressure along the East Coast and low pressure crossing Canada with a trailing cold front passing through the Great Plains, Midwest, and upper Great Lakes. Tuesday and Wednesday will be particularly breezy and warm with highs around 80 on Tuesday and in the low-mid 80s Wednesday while SSW winds occasionally gust over 25mph. Although current 10-hour fuel moisture is still in the 16-20% range, we'll have to see how much rain we receive today/tonight, and afternoon RH levels are forecast to only get down to around 40% Tuesday and Wednesday, the wind and sun will certainly help to dry out available fuels and increasing leaf litter, so people with fire weather interests will still want to watch the forecast for Tuesday- Wednesday. Halloween: There is decent run-to-run consistency and agreement among model solutions suggesting rain will return on Thursday as the aforementioned cold front approaches from the west with a good connection to moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico. There are still timing differences on when exactly the rain will arrive, but general confidence in rain has increased enough to allow 30% (Lake Cumberland) to 60% (southern Indiana) PoPs in the forecast for the 31st. HREF shows a 60-90% chance of measurable rainfall sometime during the Thursday - Thursday night time frame, with a 20%-50% chance of more than a quarter inch (greater amounts in southwest Indiana, lesser amounts toward Lake Cumberland). The system will be accompanied by high shear but very little instability and weak lapse rates -- will leave thunder out of the forecast at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Ahead of an approaching cold front, conditions at area TAF sites will remain VFR as winds continue to veer from the southeast towards the southwest. A low level jet is causing some weak LLWS at HNB. This will continue to expand to near SDF, but may not make it that far east. The LLJ should dissipate by around 14z or so. Later this evening, as the front works through, scattered showers will become more likely. Not expecting significant impacts with any of this activity. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...KDW