FXUS64 KLUB 212303
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
503 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 503 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

 - Mild and quiet conditions expected today ant Thursday before
   an arctic front early Friday morning.

 - Potential extreme cold temperatures this weekend with sub-zero
   wind chills possible during overnight hours Friday into
   Saturday.

 - Wintry precipitation to return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Today through tomorrow afternoon will be the final period of quiet
weather before an extended period of active weather. The strong
pressure gradient behind the front early this morning will relax
through the afternoon. Winds will decrease in response as the
surface ridge slides to the east from the Texas Panhandle across
Oklahoma. For Thursday, we will see weak surface cyclogenesis in
eastern New Mexico in response to the deep upper level storm system
off the coast of southern California. This will allow winds to swing
back around to the south with temperatures warming above seasonal
averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

The long-term package remains quite active compared to the weather
we have experienced over the last few days in the South Plains
region. The longwave trough positioned across the eastern half of
the CONUS will continue to shift eastward, as the associated low
translating through portions of the Ontario Province wobbles through
the Great Lakes region. Off to our west, an H5 cutoff low moves
onshore southern California, translating southeastward into portions
of northern Mexico. This more southern track continues to be the
theme between newer guidance coming in like the 12Z GFS and 00Z
ECMWF. Although, the GFS continues to be the more southern of the
tracks digging into portions of north-central Mexico while the ECMWF
is a tad bit more northern sliding through the US/MX border while it
propagates east. In addition to the more southerly trek, models
continue to slow this system down with each run with some of the CAM
guidance that reaches out that far in agreement with the slower runs
provided by global guidance. Nonetheless, most solutions have this
feature becoming an open wave as it approaches the region from the
west, tracking through the area by Saturday. This synoptic setup
will favor southwest flow across the FA as early as
Thursday,transporting in beneficial sub-tropical moisture via the
associated H5 jet. Although guidance does seem to be congealing into
a better picture in regards to the evolution of this system, there
is still enough run to run differences to raise some feathers in
forecast certainty. One thing that continues to be consistent is the
arrival of cold arctic air as a cold front associated with the upper
low to our northeast swings through. Most guidance pushes the
initial backdoor-ish front through our northeastern counties shortly
after midnight, while the initial blast of cooler air arriving
shortly after as the surface high surges south. The arrival of this
arctic air being earlier in the day will lead to a pretty chilly
Friday, with high temperatures likely being reached during the early
morning hours and falling quickly behind the front. For now, NBM
continues to be quite warm so similar to previous forecasts we have
trended closer to MOS guidance with the NBM 10th percentile showing
highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Although wind speeds behind the
front don't look to become of much concern regarding strength,
speeds up to 20 MPH could be just enough for wind chills to drop
into the single digits Friday afternoon. By the overnight hours,
temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits with wind
chills as low as -15 degrees possible. These dangerously cold
temperatures and wind chills have lead to us being within criteria
for an Extreme Cold Watch which is in effect late Friday night
through Saturday morning.

As far as precipitation goes, a lot will depend on the evolution of
the upper level system to our west. As moisture continues to be
transported into the region and we begin to see supportive lift
creep in from the H5 jet and FROPA, along with the cooler airmass
will lead to chances for precipitation across our area Friday
through Sunday. Compared to previous forecasts, timing looks to be a
bit later in the afternoon Friday compared to early Friday morning
as we thought initially given the slower trek. Forecast soundings
generally depict all wintry precipitation profiles across much of
our area, as the thermal column looks to be below freezing through
the DGZ. This combined with the extremely cold surface temperatures
will favor dendritic growth along with high liquid to snow ratios.
Meaning that snow that does fall will be light/fluffy and that
despite our QPF being low, we can still achieve higher snow
accumulations. Additionally, a modest warm nose is also evident on
forecast soundings across the area, although present, temperatures
remain sub-freezing through the layer which should limit any melting
from occurring supporting snow. Although brief periods of mixed
winter precipitation like sleet will also be possible. One caveat,
soundings have a history of portraying a cooler warm nose and one
thing the new GFS has done is warm this column ever so slightly. If
this happens there is a chance we favor more sleet than snow.
Thankfully given the depth of the super cold subfreezing layer,
liquid retention should be limited, which leads to a higher
confidence in sleet over any freezing rain. Across our southeastern
counties, soundings are a bit warmer with a true above freezing warm
nose evident aloft. So this is the area we could see some freezing
rain try to mix in, however once again, the depth of the very cold
layer below favors refreezing despite the evidence of an elevated
warm layer. As a result, limited freezing rain will help keep ice
accumulations low across our FA. As for snow accumulations, this
continues to be the trickiest to pin down given the uncertainties.
Higher accumulations are expected across our northern half with
accumulations up to 8" possible, while further south accumulations
up to 3" to 5" are possible. As this system continues to approach and
we get a better grasp on the location and timing of this, we will
begin to have a higher confidence in totals. As for now, this
remains a lower confidence forecast in regards to snow amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
night for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
morning for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51