FXUS64 KLUB 111214

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail
today and tomorrow.

 - Rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday.

Today the upper level pattern will feature a gradual transition from
northwest flow to quasi zonal. Meanwhile at the surface low pressure
will give way to very weak high pressure resulting in west winds
shifting to north and then to the east but remaining light across.
Outside of the wind shift, subsidence and lack of moisture will
support another mostly sunny day with solar insolation at its max.
However, the northerly/easterly flow will aid in keeping
temperatures from climbing too far above normal for this time of
year. High temperatures will remain near average reaching the upper
50s and low 60s.

Tonight continued light winds and mostly clear conditions will lead
to lows falling into the upper 20s on the Caprock and the low 30s
off the Caprock.


(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

We are still on track for a widespread precipitation event beginning
Wednesday morning and lasting through Friday as a strong upper level
low moves into West Texas. Models are in very good agreement that
the entire forecast area will receive substantial rainfall so NBM
PoPs of up to 95 percent have been maintained for Wednesday night
and Thursday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 inch are looking
increasingly likely with areas of over 2 inches possible especially
in the Rolling Plains.

Southeast winds will lead to strong low-level moisture advection
along with increasing mid and upper level moisture carried in by the
upper level low resulting in a fully saturated atmospheric column.
PWAT values are forecast to exceed the climatological 90th percentile
at both of our nearest balloon sounding sites in Amarillo and
Midland which is usually a sign that flooding may become a concern
especially if some areas of convective precipitation occur and
produce locally higher rainfall rates. However, forecast instability
parameters are low with models only showing up to around 200-300 J/kg
of CAPE on Wednesday and Thursday but this could be sufficient for
isolated pockets of convective precipitation and occasional thunder.
The long duration of this event (over 48 hours) should limit the
threat of widespread flooding but localized flooding is certainly

Temperatures will be cold enough that areas in the southwest Texas
Panhandle and the northern South Plains will likely see a transition
to snow or a rain/snow mix sometime between Thursday morning and
Friday. Forecast high temperatures on Thursday and Friday are in the
upper 30s and low 40s with lows near or below freezing in the
southwest Texas Panhandle and the South Plains. The main uncertainty
regarding this event will be the exact track of the center of the
low which will mainly impact the potential for winter precipitation.
The last several ECMWF solutions take the center of the upper level
low north of EL Paso which would favor more rain than snow while the
last few GFS runs take the center through El Paso which is more
favorable for snow. Confidence is low regarding where precipitation
will change over to snow and how much snow may fall but this will
become more clear in future forecasts when the exact track of the
low becomes more certain. Forecast sounding indicate that
precipitation will likely be only rain or snow with low chances of
sleet and freezing rain. Precipitaion should come to an end from
west to east by late Friday night into early Saturday morning as all
lift exits the forecast area. Warming temperatures and dry weather
are then expected over the weekend as upper air heights increase
with highs in the 50s and low 60s.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR and FEW250 will prevail for the TAF period. Winds will
initially be west at less than 7kts thru 16z. After winds will
shift north and then settled NNE at 5-10kts.

12Z update forecast confidence is high on all elements.