FXUS64 KMAF 131117 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 203 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Finally...changes are coming. After several hot days (and we have another on the way), a cold front will arrive this evening. Temperatures are starting mild this morning, mostly in the 60s/70s with some 50s in the colder locations of the Marfa Plateau. We will quickly warm with temperatures nearing 90 degrees as early as late this morning. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s once again with 80s in the higher terrain. The record high for Midland Intl is 94 degrees set in 1968 and that's about what we are forecasting. By late afternoon, a weak cold front will be entering the region from the north. While not likely to affect high temperatures unless it arrives early, temperatures will begin to fall slowly behind the front. By sunrise Monday the front is expected to settle near the Pecos River. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler behind the front with lows mostly in the 50s (40s possible around Tatum). Highs Monday will be cooler, but remain well above normal. Most locations will reach the mid to upper 80s with 90s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Rivers. With no moisture to work with, the forecast remains dry. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Unfortunately, the early week cold front does little to temperatures for now. Tuesday remains on the warm side with temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s for many. Thankfully, that doesn't hold out for long. A shortwave digging across the Upper Midwest and another system to our north over the central Rocky Mountains push another reinforcing cold front through our region. This allows a return to below normal temperatures for a change. Through the end of the week, widespread high temperatures in the 70s are likely. Unfortunately, things appear to remain mostly dry with insufficient moisture for any precipitation. Next weekend remains relatively uncertain. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis falls in one of two camps. The first is a more progressive and open trough moving through the western CONUS into the Great Plains. This would likely keep temperatures a bit cooler as another cold front is likely. Unfortunately, this would also come with lessened rain chances. The other solution is a slower, deeper trough that may become cut-off over the Four Corners. This slower progression could bring a better chance of rain to the area and slightly warmer temperatures with continued lee troughing. Hopefully we have a better idea as to which solution will occur towards the middle of the week. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 VFR will prevail. A cold front will turn southerly winds to the northeast late in the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 96 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 92 55 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 94 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 94 59 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 84 59 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 92 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 86 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 94 58 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 93 59 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 95 56 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...29