FXUS64 KMAF 111124 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 524 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 It is going to be another chilly morning across the region to start the week as temperatures will fall to near freezing across the bulk of that area. As troughing continues to translate east across the Great Lakes this afternoon with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, mid-level ridging and increasing heights are expected across the southern Great Plains. The result of this upper- level pattern is going to be temperatures increasing 10 to 15 degrees over Sunday across the region. Widespread 60s and mostly sunny skies will make for a beautiful afternoon for many. Enjoy the beautiful weather! Temperatures tonight remain a bit milder as southerly return flow and increasing clouds result in most locations remaining above the freezing mark by Tuesday morning. Our next weather maker will be approaching the region by Tuesday afternoon. The open trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will become cut- off from the main flow as it enters the Intermountain West. In doing so, mid-level southwesterly flow overspreads the area, increasing cloud cover and slightly decreasing heights. Temperatures are going to 5 to 10 degrees cooler Tuesday afternoon across the area as a result. Widespread 50s and low 60s can be expected under increasingly cloudy skies. While it remains dry in the short-term, big changes are expected in the long-term as the cut-off low continues to approach the region. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Upper pattern Tuesday night has a cut off over NV with SW flow across NM and TX. This low will sink into AZ Wednesday and roll into NM early Thursday before making it into Far W TX late in the day. The low will track along the TX/NM border Thursday night and move across the CWA Friday and into Central TX Saturday. Saturday night the low crosses into the Gulf as a ridge builds up across the Western US. Sunday and Monday the ridge builds into the area as the ridge axis slides east. Temperatures Wednesday will be chilly in the 50s north of the Pecos River with 50s and 60s south of it. Have somewhat of a backdoor front Thursday as a surface ridge builds into the area from the east with highs in the Permian Basin only in the 40s in what is expected to be a cloudy and rainy day. Then a cold front blows through Friday pushing highs in the 40s well into the srn CWA. Temps begin to recover Saturday and continue to slowly warm Sunday into Monday. Lows start the warmest Tuesday night in the 40s and 50s then steadily decrease into the 30s next weekend. Rain chances just continue to improve this week with the approaching cut off low and for the first time with this event models develop a little rain/snow mix over Nrn Lea County Thursday night/Friday morning. Wednesday through Thursday night has high pops with 80 percent probabilities somewhere across SE NM and/or the Permian Basin. If it works out as model qpf is indicating portions of the Eastern Permian Basin could receive 2 inches or more of rain with this event. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are mostly light and northwesterly to westerly this morning. Winds veer around to easterly later this afternoon at all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 63 35 58 49 / 0 0 0 40 Carlsbad 62 32 54 42 / 0 0 0 20 Dryden 65 36 60 51 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 66 37 63 48 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 57 40 56 40 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 63 31 56 45 / 0 0 0 40 Marfa 64 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 63 36 57 50 / 0 0 0 40 Odessa 64 36 57 50 / 0 0 0 30 Wink 64 33 59 48 / 0 0 0 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...91