FXUS64 KMAF 111124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

It is going to be another chilly morning across the region to start
the week as temperatures will fall to near freezing across the bulk
of that area. As troughing continues to translate east across the
Great Lakes this afternoon with another trough moving into the
Pacific Northwest, mid-level ridging and increasing heights are
expected across the southern Great Plains. The result of this upper-
level pattern is going to be temperatures increasing 10 to 15
degrees over Sunday across the region. Widespread 60s and mostly
sunny skies will make for a beautiful afternoon for many. Enjoy the
beautiful weather! Temperatures tonight remain a bit milder as
southerly return flow and increasing clouds result in most locations
remaining above the freezing mark by Tuesday morning. Our next
weather maker will be approaching the region by Tuesday afternoon.
The open trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will become cut-
off from the main flow as it enters the Intermountain West. In doing
so, mid-level southwesterly flow overspreads the area, increasing
cloud cover and slightly decreasing heights. Temperatures are going
to 5 to 10 degrees cooler Tuesday afternoon across the area as a
result. Widespread 50s and low 60s can be expected under
increasingly cloudy skies. While it remains dry in the short-term,
big changes are expected in the long-term as the cut-off low
continues to approach the region.



(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Upper pattern Tuesday night has a cut off over NV with SW flow
across NM and TX.  This low will sink into AZ Wednesday and roll
into NM early Thursday before making it into Far W TX late in the
day.  The low will track along the TX/NM border Thursday night and
move across the CWA Friday and into Central TX Saturday.  Saturday
night the low crosses into the Gulf as a ridge builds up across the
Western US.  Sunday and Monday the ridge builds into the area as the
ridge axis slides east.

Temperatures Wednesday will be chilly in the 50s north of the Pecos
River with 50s and 60s south of it.  Have somewhat of a backdoor
front Thursday as a surface ridge builds into the area from the east
with highs in the Permian Basin only in the 40s in what is expected
to be a cloudy and rainy day.  Then a cold front blows through
Friday pushing highs in the 40s well into the srn CWA. Temps begin
to recover Saturday and continue to slowly warm Sunday into Monday.
Lows start the warmest Tuesday night in the 40s and 50s then
steadily decrease into the 30s next weekend.

Rain chances just continue to improve this week with the approaching
cut off low and for the first time with this event models develop a
little rain/snow mix over Nrn Lea County Thursday night/Friday
morning. Wednesday through Thursday night has high pops with 80
percent probabilities somewhere across SE NM and/or the Permian
Basin. If it works out as model qpf is indicating portions of the
Eastern Permian Basin could receive 2 inches or more of rain with
this event.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are
mostly light and northwesterly to westerly this morning. Winds
veer around to easterly later this afternoon at all terminals.


Big Spring               63  35  58  49 /   0   0   0  40
Carlsbad                 62  32  54  42 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   65  36  60  51 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            66  37  63  48 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  40  56  40 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    63  31  56  45 /   0   0   0  40
Marfa                    64  33  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  36  57  50 /   0   0   0  40
Odessa                   64  36  57  50 /   0   0   0  30
Wink                     64  33  59  48 /   0   0   0  30