FXUS64 KMAF 270523
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1223 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
- A low (10-40%) chance of thunderstorms is expected across
Southeast New Mexico and the Northern Permian Basin later this afternoon
through late this evening. Any thunderstorms that develop may
become strong to severe with a very large hail and damaging wind
risk, though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.
- An approaching upper-level disturbance brings windy and fire
weather concerns to western portions of the area. A High Wind
Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains, along with a
Wind Advisory over the Eddy County Plains for tomorrow afternoon
and evening.
- More rounds of storms early next week accompanied with a couple
of cold fronts later on in the week bringing increased rain
chances and slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
An outflow boundary continues to slowly sag south across Southeast
New Mexico and the Permian Basin this afternoon. This outflow
originated from showers and thunderstorms across Northwest Texas
this morning. Where this outflow boundary ends up this afternoon
remains somewhat uncertain, but this boundary will be the foci for
afternoon thunderstorms and potential severe weather. In the
meantime, broad troughing continues to our west with lee troughing
keeping rich gulf moisture in place. Temperatures will be warm and
somewhat muggy this afternoon with many locations climbing into the
80s and lower 90s with upper 50s and low 60s dewpoints. This moist
airmass becomes progressively unstable through the afternoon and
with forcing for ascent provided by the outflow boundary,
thunderstorms are expected by mid-afternoon across Southeast New
Mexico initially. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and ample
instability will support a hail and damaging wind risk with any
organized thunderstorm development. With the outflow boundary in
place, a corridor of enhanced low-level wind shear maintains at
least a low end tornado potential. The other concern is flash
flooding with precipitable water values over one inch approaching
the daily maximum for this date. Any slow-moving or trFM272100
12017G24KT P6SM BKN250aining thunderstorms pose a risk of a quick
one to two inches of rainfall and flash flooding. Thunderstorms
move slowly east-southeast across the plains of Southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. Any remaining thunderstorm activity begins
to weaken and move east out of the region late this evening.
A mild morning starts the day on Sunday with upper 50s and 60s
across the region with areas of low clouds across eastern portions
of the area. Our next major disturbance makes landfall on the West
Coast and advances into the Great Basin by Sunday afternoon. This
advancing feature will aide in amplifying the weather pattern
resulting in warmer and windier conditions. Temperatures surge into
the 90s for many with overall breezy south to southwest winds.
During peak mixing in the afternoon, winds may become strong enough
for high winds in the Guadalupes and advisory level winds across the
Eddy County plains. Wind hazards have been issued for these regions
accordingly. The return of dry and windy conditions for far western
portions of the area means the return of fire weather. See the fire
weather discussion below for full details. Once again, afternoon
thunderstorms remain a possibility, but this threat appears very low
(10-20%). Limited thunderstorm activity is expected due to any large-
scale forcing being displaced over the Central and Northern Plains
with not much else to get a thunderstorm going across the Southern
Great Plains. The dryline may be enough to get an isolated
thunderstorm or two going, but we may just as easily remain dry.
That said, should a thunderstorm develop it may become strong to
severe. Once again, should anything develop it begins to weaken and
exit the region to the east by late evening. Temperatures then fall
back into the upper 50s and 60s overnight.
-Chehak
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
The long-term begins with breezy conditions over much of the region.
This is due to an approaching longwave mid-level trough off to the
west and a deepening surface low over the eastern Dakotas extending
down to leeward of the Rockies. Temperatures are expected to
generally reach the mid 80s to 90s areawide with spots along the
Presidio and Rio Grande valleys in the lower 100s. Long-term
guidance is in agreement with the dryline setting up along the far
eastern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon before
retrograding to the west by Monday evening. The best chances of rain
and storms will remain over the eastern/northeastern Permian Basin.
SPC has outlined these areas in the slight risk for severe
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings and hodographs depict once again
the threat of damaging winds and large hail given the greatest
profile of CAPE is in the hail growth zone region, along with DCAPE
values over 1200 J/kg indicating strong downdrafts. Guidance also
has a modest to strong low-level jet developing across the eastern
half of the forecast region after 7 pm Monday evening, providing
more support for these storms. These storms are expected to move out
of the region after midnight.
Tuesday looks a bit more interesting as the mid-level trough
continues to progress eastward. Embedded shortwave impulses ahead of
the base of the trough will allow more lift and moisture across west
Texas and southeast New Mexico. Coincidentally, a cold front is
forecasted to stall over the Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon,
supplying greater rain chances for more portions of west Texas
heading into Tuesday evening. Guidance also has the dryline further
back to the west, thanks to the moisture supply from both systems. A
similar severe setup is in store over similar locations as well,
though since this is four days out, more details will be ironed out
over the next upcoming days. The cold front is forecasted to finally
push through the region by Wednesday, resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures and drier conditions. Temperatures briefly warm back up
on Thursday before a secondary front pushes through the region on
late Thursday into early Friday morning timeframe which will
slightly cool temperatures in the 70s and 80s on Friday. Mid-level
ridging moves overhead, along with westerly flow aloft going into
the weekend keeping temperatures to near normal for this time of
year.
Lamberson
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025
A few terminals will be under MVFR conditions overnight and into
the late morning. Southwesterly to southeasterly winds become
breezy to strong at most sites Sunday afternoon as another storm
system passes by.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Near critical to extreme conditions are expected tomorrow over the
Upper Trans Pecos, the mountains, and southeastern New Mexico as a
surface low increases southwesterly winds and the dryline positions
itself over the Permian Basin. Critical MinRH values will persist
behind the dryline through the next several days. Rainfall today for
some portions of southeast New Mexico (Lea County mainly) may
mitigate these concerns. Similar fire weather concerns are expected
Monday in which a Fire Weather Watch may be warranted in future
forecast packages. ERCs remain above the 50th percentile up to the
75-89th tomorrow and Monday for many locations west of the Pecos.
Fire weather concerns begin to drop off Tuesday as a cold front
brings slightly cooler temperatures and more widespread rain
chances.
Lamberson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 91 66 91 62 / 10 10 10 20
Carlsbad 95 60 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 91 66 92 65 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Stockton 98 69 96 65 / 20 20 20 10
Guadalupe Pass 86 59 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 91 59 89 56 / 10 10 0 10
Marfa 89 58 89 56 / 10 10 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 93 67 91 63 / 10 20 10 20
Odessa 92 67 91 63 / 20 20 10 20
Wink 97 66 95 63 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... High Wind Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains
Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM... High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Eddy County
Plains.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...95