FXUS62 KMFL 081659
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1159 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1158 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
Predominantly dry conditions are expected through the short term
period as a dry air mass remains over the area. Surface high
pressure remains the primary synoptic feature, which will keep
surface flow east to southeasterly through the remainder of today
and through Saturday. As the boundary layer moistens with easterly
surface flow in place, a few isolated showers will be possible for
east coast metro areas this afternoon through tomorrow. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 70s today. Lows tonight will be in the lower
60s for interior areas, and mid to upper 60s for coastal regions. On
Saturday, the aforementioned area of high pressure continues its
eastward trek, as a mid-level trough begins to dig across the Great
Plains. This influence should keep predominantly dry weather across
the CWA, with a continuing chance for isolated showers across
eastern areas. Highs on Saturday will be a little bit warmer, with
lower 80s expected for eastern areas and mid 80s for western areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
On Sunday, the intensifying mid-level trough is anticipated to
advance further into the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico.
Concurrently, a robust surface frontal boundary will progress
through the Southeast, extending into Northern and Central Florida
as the day unfolds. Ahead of this frontal system, regional winds
are expected to shift towards a south-southwesterly direction, and
concurrently, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will
incrementally heighten. However, substantial uncertainty persists
regarding the specifics, as recent ensemble model outputs have
indicated a deceleration in the eastward movement of both the mid-
level trough and the surface frontal boundary. This delay suggests
that the peak probabilities for showers and thunderstorms might
occur later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the
most favorable dynamics and instability are projected to remain
significantly north, there remains a potential for a few intense
thunderstorms, characterized by gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Elevated values of bulk shear and mixed-layer Convective Available
Potential Energy (ML CAPE) will create a conducive environment
for the development of thunderstorms, contingent upon adequate
low-level mass convergence. This aspect of the forecast will
continue to be closely monitored throughout the week. Sundays high
temperatures are expected to reach the lower 80s in east coast
metropolitan areas and the mid-80s in the interior regions of
Southwest Florida.
With model guidance indicating a slower movement of the frontal
boundary, its passage over South Florida is now forecast for the
overnight and early morning hours of Monday, possibly stalling
over the Florida Straits thereafter. Cold air advection across
South Florida is expected to be modest, as winds rapidly shift to
a more north-northeasterly direction from Monday into Tuesday,
with high pressure building from the north. Forecast uncertainty
for the early to middle part of next week remains heightened due
to discrepancies in model guidance regarding the strength of the
incoming high pressure. A more robust high-pressure system could
extend further south, potentially ushering in drier air during
this period. Conversely, a weaker high-pressure system might allow
the stalled frontal boundary to remain closer to the region,
maintaining higher moisture levels and continued chances of
showers. The latest forecast adopts a model blend, incrementally
increasing shower probabilities on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mondays
high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s west of
Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s along the east coast. With the
development of northeasterly winds, a gradual warming trend is
anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
VFR conditions prevail through the period with east to
southeasterly flow 10-15kts. There is a chance for a few isolated
showers although there is not high enough confidence to include in
any specific TAF at this time. &&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
Marine conditions today have improved, with the earlier hazardous
conditions no longer present. Wave heights over the Atlantic waters
are now more moderate, generally ranging between 3 to 5 feet. Winds
are expected to continue evolving, shifting out of the east today
and veering out of the southeast as the weekend approaches. The
possibility of thunderstorms later in the weekend should be noted,
especially in the context of an advancing cold front.&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least
Saturday for the Atlantic coast. This elevated threat may persist
into Sunday before improving conditions early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 71 81 73 83 / 10 0 10 40
West Kendall 67 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 50
Opa-Locka 70 82 71 83 / 10 0 10 40
Homestead 70 82 71 83 / 0 0 10 50
Fort Lauderdale 71 81 73 83 / 10 0 10 40
N Ft Lauderdale 71 81 73 83 / 10 0 10 40
Pembroke Pines 68 82 70 83 / 10 0 10 40
West Palm Beach 68 80 70 82 / 10 10 10 40
Boca Raton 70 81 72 83 / 10 10 10 40
Naples 65 83 67 82 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Rizzuto