FXUS63 KMKX 081619
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1019 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1013 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023)

Mild temps are panning out already and seeing temp creep into the
upper 40s and low 50s. Will continue to see temps climb into the
mid to even the upper 50s this afternoon. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track with rain moving in from the south-southwest
tonight and push through Saturday morning.

Wagner

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 419 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023)

Today through Sunday:

A narrow band of 5 kft base clouds is moving across srn WI due to
warm advection ahead of the strong low over ern ND that will move
across Ontario tnt. Pockets of stratus clouds may form this
morning into the afternoon but there is uncertainty whether
enough low level moisture will be present for this to occur. There
currently is a narrow band of stratus from MO into west central
IL. So will count on partly cloudy skies today with very mild
temps in the middle 50s.

For tnt into Sat AM, the shortwave trough currently over se MT
will amplify a bit as it reaches MN at 12Z Sat. Meanwhile the
shortwave trough over the Great Basin will quickly reach KS and OK
by 00Z Sat then swing newd across WI late tnt and Sat AM. A wave
of low pressure will accompany this feature along with the nose of
a 850 mb jet and sfc-850 mb frontogenesis. A w-e gradient in PoPs
and qpf is forecast across srn WI with rainfall under 0.10 inches
west and north of Madison with up to 1/3 of an inch over se WI.
The shortwave trough over MN will then move across the nrn half of
WI for Sat afternoon and night, while srn WI likely remains dry.
A cold front will then follow for Sat nt and another shortwave
trough passage on Sun. Stratus clouds will return with temps
returning to seasonal normals.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 419 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023)

Sunday night through Thursday:

A sfc ridge and 500 mb height rises then takes hold for late Sun
nt and Mon AM. However, swly winds and warm advection will begin
Mon afternoon ahead of a large polar trough that will move across
south central Canada to se Canada during this period. It's dry
cold front will then pass on Tue across srn WI. High pressure will
then track from the nrn Great Plains into the Ohio River Valley
for the remainder of the week. This will bring a return of wswly
winds and warm advection to the region with above normal temps
expected.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1013 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023)

Breezy south-southwesterly winds this morning will gradually ease
as the pressure gradient weakens as the main surface low tracks
into Ontario. Also will result in mainly VFR conditions. Meanwhile
a secondary low develops and lifts from the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley into IL this evening along with a cold front. As this lifts
into the region expect lower flight conditions and rain chances to
increase overnight. Mainly looking at rain given the warmer temps.
The front is progged to push through Saturday morning. Precip
chances will diminish with the departing front and drier air
Saturday morning. Also expect winds to shift to the northwest
behind the front Saturday morning with lingering lower flight
conditions.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 419 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023)

Breezy southerly winds will continue into the mid afternoon hours
as low pressure of 29.2 inches moves from the northern Great
Plains into Ontario. Another area of low pressure will develop
over Illinois Friday night and move northeastward across Lake
Michigan on Saturday. Modest south winds tonight will shift to
the west and become brisk by middle to late Saturday morning. A
cold frontal passage Saturday night will shift the winds to brisk
northwesterly that will last through Sunday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this morning from Sheboygan to
Winthrop Harbor for breezy sly winds and building waves.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon
     Friday.

&&

$$

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