FXUS62 KMLB 131341 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 941 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 The forecast remains on track this morning, with a few showers drifting onshore from around Melbourne southward. Expect this activity to persist through the day today. While not a washout, several rounds of showers will be possible. PoPs 30-50% for Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast and up to 20% for southern Osceola and Brevard Counties. To the north, conditions are forecast to remain dry. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. Seasonable high temperatures will reach the mid-80s. Showers will remain possible this evening into the overnight hours along the Treasure Coast. PoPs 20-30%. Pleasant overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few rural locations in northern Lake and Volusia Counties could approach the lower 60s! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Some very ISO fog and stratus has developed at KLEE (LIFR) and KFPR- KSUA (MVFR), prompting short-fused TEMPOs for those terminals. VFR conditions prevail at all other ECFL terminals, and expected the aforementioned to improve to VFR by 14Z. ISO-SCT SHRA continues over the Atlantic waters, brushing the coastal terminals from KMLB-KSUA periodically. ISO afternoon TS possible INVOF of KVRB-KSUA. Light N to NE winds this morning ,becoming NE and increasing up to 10 kts in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 539 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Today-Tonight... Poor boating conditions linger across the offshore waters of Brevard and the treasure Coast today, where small craft should exercise caution for seas up to 6 feet. Seas will be 4-5ft across the nearshore waters and 4-6ft in the offshore waters. Light north to northeast winds will prevail through the period. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. Isolated lightning storms will be possible this afternoon and evening mainly across the Treasure Coast waters. Monday-Friday... Winds will become north to northwest on Monday, increasing to around 15 KT on Tuesday, before veering north to northeast and increasing to 15-20 KT on Wednesday through Friday. Poor to hazardous seas will once again develop mid to late week with small craft advisory/small craft exercise caution expected. Seas 3-5ft on Monday will build to 4-6ft in the nearshore waters and 5-8ft in the offshore waters Wednesday afternoon before gradually building up to 9 ft in the offshore waters on Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible across the Treasure Coast waters on Monday, and generally south of Cape Canaveral Friday. Otherwise mostly dry conditions expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 539 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 The St Johns River at Astor and the forecast point at Deland remain in Major Flood Stage. The forecast point at Geneva Above Lake Harney is forecast to gradually crest into Major Flood Stage this week. The St Johns River at Sanford is forecast to reach in Moderate Flood Stage into early this week. The Little Wekiva River remains in Moderate Flood Stage. Shingle Creek is forecast to remain in Minor Flood Stage. See Flood Warnings for more details. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 66 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 85 68 86 66 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 84 70 86 66 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 84 71 86 64 / 30 20 10 0 LEE 85 66 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 85 66 86 66 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 86 68 87 67 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 84 71 86 63 / 40 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Haley