FXUS62 KMLB 111509
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1009 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
...Much Cooler Behind a Cold Front Today into Tonight...
Surface analysis shows the cold front that passed through the local
area last night has cleared the Florida peninsula and is currently
in the Florida Straights this morning. Otherwise, fairly quiet
across east central Florida as a broad deck of low to mid level
clouds stream across the local area. A much cooler start to the day,
with temperatures at 9 AM ranging from upper 40s across the north
to low 60s along the Treasure Coast.
A high pressure system will build across the SE US through tonight,
allowing for dry conditions through the time period. Expect breezy
to gusty northerly winds today, with gusts 20-30 mph. Skies will
become clear to mostly clear late this morning with afternoon high
temperatures ranging from low 60s to low 70s. Forecast remains on
track.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1005 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
Poor to hazardous marine conditions continue today. High pressure
will build across the southeast US, brining dry conditions across
the local waters into tonight. North to northwest winds 20-25 knots
today will veer to the north to northeast overnight and slacken
slightly to 15-20 knots. Seas build to 4-6ft with up to 7ft in the
Gulf Stream. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 1pm
for all of the waters with nearshore Volusia and Brevard county
waters dropping after 1pm.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
MVFR CIGs across east central FL this morning as a broad deck of low
to mid level clouds spread across the local area. Skies will become
clear to mostly clear later this morning as high pressure builds
over the SE US, with VFR conditions expected through the remainder
of the TAF period. Northwest winds around 10 KT this morning will
veer north to northeast and become breezy by early afternoon, with
gusts around 20 KT. Winds will then slacken overnight, especially
across inland terminals with some breezy conditions lingering along
the coast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 440 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
High pressure will build across the southeastern CONUS today behind
a cold front which has brought much drier and cooler air. MinRH
values are expected to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s across Lake,
western Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties. Low RH
and north winds around 10 to 15 mph will result in fire sensitive
conditions this afternoon over the aforementioned areas.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
Today-Tonight...A gusty north breeze with gusts to 20-30mph and
clear skies this afternoon will make for a brisk cool day across
central Florida. High pressure will build across the southeastern
CONUS through tonight. We'll remain dry with high temperatures
topping out well below-normal for this time of year - in the low
60s to low 70s. Expect dry conditions overnight with north winds
gusting to 15-25mph along the coast under partly cloudy skies.
Lows are forecast to drop into the low to upper 40s to the west of
I-95 and the low 50s to low 60s to the east. Wind chill values
will drop into the mid 30s to low 40s along and north of I-4 with
the low 40s to mid 50s to the south.
Tuesday-Friday...High pressure will build toward the Mid-Atlantic
region, with flow veering onshore and strengthening through mid to
late week as pressure gradient tightens between strong high to the
north and stalled front south of FL. This will lead to breezy to
windy conditions through much of the week, with onshore flow also
gradually increasing moisture across the area. It will remain dry
into Tuesday, but rain chances will begin to rise through the rest
of the week, as increasing coverage of onshore moving showers
occurs across the area. Conditions should remain dry near to
northwest of line from Lake Kissimmee to the Cape on Wednesday,
with PoPs up to 30-50 percent along the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee County. Chance PoPs (around 30-50 percent) then expand
northward across the area through the remainder of the week.
Greatest rain chances through the period will remain focused along
the Treasure Coast. There will be the potential for some
localized heavy rainfall across southern portions of the Treasure
Coast from Wed-Thu, with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
across Martin and southeast St. Lucie counties both days.
Skies will be partly cloudy to start on Tuesday, but mostly cloudy
conditions will then prevail through much of the week. Onshore flow
will lead to an increase in max temps to the 70s on Tuesday, and
then cloud cover will generally keep highs in the 70s for the rest
of the week. Warming trend will also impact overnight lows, with
values back in the 60s across much of the area.
Stronger onshore flow into mid to late week will lead to building
seas across the waters, which will lead to hazardous surf
conditions, including higher risk of rip currents and large
breaking waves at the beaches. Minor coastal flooding and beach
erosion concerns will also increase through mid to late week,
especially around the times of high tide.
Saturday-Sunday...Forecast becomes much more uncertain into the
weekend, as model guidance continues to diverge in their solutions
of developing low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico (along
stalled frontal boundary). GFS continues to be faster with its
formation, lifting the low toward the north and then east-northeast
and across FL into Saturday night and Sunday, but the latest ECMWF
run is slower, not moving this low through FL until Sunday night.
Both solutions do indicate a period of unsettled weather and much
wetter conditions into the weekend, but just differ on exact
timing of higher rainfall coverage. For now, chance PoPs up to
30-50 percent continue for the weekend. Highs remain in the 70s
with overnight lows generally in the 60s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 61 47 70 60 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 64 49 72 61 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 67 52 74 65 / 0 10 0 10
VRB 68 54 75 65 / 0 10 0 10
LEE 62 43 69 56 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 63 47 72 60 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 64 49 72 60 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 69 55 75 65 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-
552.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.
&&
$$
Watson/Haley