FXUS64 KMOB 271600 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1100 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 ...New Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 The line of strong storms has arrived into western areas of the CWA though it has been gradually weakening as it outruns the best vertical shear located to the west. Best 0-3km CAPE of 125-175 j/kg is focused in southern MS and AL right ahead of the southern flank of this line. This is where we're still seeing a few stronger pop-up showers and storms capable of some gusty winds and small hail. This line is likely to decay further as it tracks east and slows through midday. With deep moisture (PWAT 1.8 to 2") and an already destabilized lower atmosphere, it's likely we see redevelopment of strong to severe storms as the weak shortwave catches back up with the boundary this afternoon (12-5PM). Lapse rates near 7 C/km in the mid-levels and weakly curved hodographs favorable for some rotating updrafts will enhance hail growth of up to 1 to 2" and stronger downdrafts capable of damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any storms that can organize, but low-level shear is fairly weak and it would be more likely to occur in a bowing segment within a line if storms can sufficiently congeal again along this boundary. This severe threat is predominantly north of I-10 and along and east of the I-65 corridor. A severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for these areas later if confidence in the threat for severe weather increases. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Plains with upper ridging along the East Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front trails from its parent low over the TN Valley, southwestward into SE TX. Closer to home, deep southwesterly flow will continue to filter in moisture across the area, with PW values topping out near 2 inches which exceeds the 90th percentile. Given the moisture in place and lingering outflow boundaries from earlier storms, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the predawn hours, though our better rain chances will come later today. A QLCS, currently moving across east Texas, will propagate to the southeast over the next few hours. The current trajectory suggests that this QLCS will move over the Gulf, with the northern extent dissipating before it reaches the area. Meanwhile, guidance is consistent on bringing a shortwave into the region this morning, lifting northeast of the area by the afternoon. The airmass will remain fairly unstable, as daytime heating allows highs to warm into the upper 80s. As the shortwave moves through, weak height falls will allow for lapse rates to steepen aloft, lending upwards of 2000- 3000 sbcape. At the same time, a 30-40kt low level jet will move across our northern counties, with 0-1 km bulk shear increasing to 20-30 kts this afternoon. Given this set up and the timing, confidence has increased on the threat for severe thunderstorms across the area. Timing is a bit tricky; however, based on current guidance, the better chance for severe thunderstorms will generally be between 18Z and 02Z (1 pm to 9 pm) when the better forcing aligns with the shear and instability. Surface winds will remain from the south, with westerly flow aloft. Thus, curved hodographs suggest a low end tornado threat, along with the damaging straight line wind potential. While our confidence in the setup has increased, there are still some caveats to the threat for severe storms. The main source of uncertainty is the lack of low level forcing. Without a defined front moving through the area, and based on the current thinking that the QLCS to our west dissipates, the main source of surface lift will be outflow boundaries which are difficult to pinpoint. Additionally, some guidance does suggest the influence of the subtropical ridge to our southeast will suppress convection and limit storm organization. That said, there's enough consensus to continue the severe threat for the area today, with damaging straight line winds, a tornado or two, and hail. The better chance will be over the northern half of the area, where the better forcing aloft exists, though the severe threat is for the whole area. Any lingering storms should wind down this evening as we lose daytime heating and the shortwave lifts out of the area. The trough over the Plains will make very little progress through at least Wednesday, with several shortwaves continuing to eject around the base of the trough. This will keep rain chances high over the next couple of days, though pinpointing the timing of storms is challenging. Given the setup, we'll likely see another QLCS develop to our west and then move through the area or generate an outflow boundary for convective initiation to occur over the local area. Either way, expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be more southwesterly tomorrow, so wind shear should be mainly unidirectional, suggesting more of a straight line wind threat on Wednesday. /73 Thursday through Monday An upper trof extending from the central Plains to across the Great Lakes takes on a meridional orientation and amplifies over the eastern CONUS through Friday. A weak and poorly defined surface trof will be over the southern portion of the forecast area Thursday morning and appears to drift a bit northward through the afternoon before dissipating. A surface low located near Arkansas Thursday morning lifts off to the northeastern states, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area on Friday. A shortwave trof embedded within the larger scale pattern will move across the region on Thursday, and with the weak surface trof over the area and plenty of deep layer moisture in place, have gone with mostly categorical pops for the forecast area. Likely to categorical pops follow for Friday as the cold front moves through, then dry conditions are expected for Saturday. The large upper trof pattern over the eastern states persists through Sunday then finally begins to move off into the western Atlantic on Monday. A weak reinforcing cold front moves into the area on Sunday and lingers into Monday, which will support slight chance pops for both days. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. The exception will be as a line of thunderstorms enters the area. These storms are expected to reach KMOB between 14-15Z and exit KPNS by 19Z. Given some uncertainty as to whether this activity will hold together, have opted to include a TEMPO group. If this activity is able to hold together, it will likely limit redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, there is still a potential for isolated thunderstorms between 20Z and 02Z. Given the uncertainty, no additional mention of TSRA is included in the TAFs. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through Thursday, becoming westerly and then northerly Friday into the weekend. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 87 70 84 69 84 62 84 / 30 70 40 80 50 70 20 10 Pensacola 74 87 74 84 73 84 66 84 / 20 60 40 80 60 70 30 10 Destin 76 88 76 86 75 85 68 84 / 20 50 40 70 60 70 40 10 Evergreen 67 89 68 85 67 83 59 84 / 40 70 40 80 60 70 20 10 Waynesboro 66 86 66 84 67 82 59 83 / 50 60 50 80 50 60 10 10 Camden 66 85 67 82 66 80 58 81 / 40 50 50 80 60 70 20 10 Crestview 69 90 69 87 68 85 60 86 / 20 70 30 80 60 80 30 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob