FXUS64 KMOB 111122
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
522 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
VFR will remain prevalent through the next 24 hours. /21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will gradually
translate eastward into the western Atlantic by this evening,
leaving a zonal flow aloft in place over our forecast area. Cool
surface high pressure will build over the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys and adjacent Gulf Coast states through tonight.
Sunny skies are expected today with perhaps a modest increase in
high level cloud cover tonight. Highs today should range in the mid
50s to near 60 degrees. Another chilly night can be expected tonight
with lows around 30 to the lower 30s over most locations along and
north of I-10. Lows near the coast will be a little warmer in the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Dry and tranquil weather conditions will
continue into Tuesday with occasional high cloudiness passing
overhead within W-SW flow aloft. Highs Tuesday afternoon look to
range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. /21
SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
An upper ridge builds north over the Mississippi River through
mid week. Surface high pressure over the upper Mississippi River
shifts east to over the Midwest in response, keeping the Southeast
under general northeasterly low level flow into mid week.
Moisture levels are on the increase, bringing increasing cloud
cover mainly in the mid/upper levels of the troposphere according
to model soundings. Low temperatures see a rise in the Short Term,
with increasing mid/upper level cloud cover and upper level
subsidence overriding a continued low level influx of cool air.
Low temperatures ranging from the low 30s north of Highway 84 to
low 40s along the coast Tuesday night rise to the upper 30s north
of Highway 84 to upper 40s along the coast Wednesday night. High
temperatures Wednesday see little change between incoming heating
and outgoing cooling from Tuesday, ranging from around 60 well
inland to the low 60s close to the coast, close to the previous
day.
/16
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
Guidance is advertising the airmass over the forecast area and
nearby moistening enough for light rainshowers to return Friday
night into Saturday as a shortwave system approaches the
Southeast. Better dynamics remain south of the northern Gulf
coast, keeping higher PoPs south of the coast along with any
chance of strong to severe weather. Increasing cloud cover and
rain chances keep high temperatures around seasonal norms through
the Extended, though low temperatures rise to well above seasonal,
with the cloud cover inhibiting overnight radiational cooling.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal waters out 60 nm as
northerly flow remains elevated around 20 kt with a few higher
gusts. Exercise caution headlines continue early this morning for
Lower Mobile Bay and the MS Sound. A light to moderate northeasterly
flow will then prevail through Tuesday. An extended period of strong
E-NE flow is expected to develop over the marine area starting late
Wednesday and continuing into the upcoming weekend as a tight
gradient sets up on the southern periphery of strong high pressure
that will be in place over the eastern U.S. Low pressure may also
develop over the vicinity of Gulf this weekend. Gusts to gale force
may impact the marine area late Wednesday through the latter part of
the week. Expect seas to build considerably late in the week, with
the latest forecast showing seas of 7-10 ft near shore and 9-13 ft
well offshore late Thursday into Friday. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 59 33 60 38 61 44 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 60 39 60 41 62 49 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Destin 60 43 61 45 64 50 63 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 58 31 61 33 62 39 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 56 30 61 32 60 39 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 55 30 60 30 58 38 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 59 29 59 34 62 42 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-
670-675.
&&
$$
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