FXUS64 KMRX 242336 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 736 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 730 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Dry conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels through Tuesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and especially Thursday. - Drier for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 An upper level trough will be weakening but will remain over the eastern CONUS as surface high pressure to our north and northwest drifts slowly east through Tuesday. This will provide us with a dry days and comfortably low relative humidity values this afternoon and again Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop again in the late night hours tonight mainly near rivers and lakes. By mid week the surface high will be off to our east and northeast, allowing low level flow to become more southwesterly and moisture to increase. Short wave energy may have enough moisture and instability to work with for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially south and mountains. By Thursday into Thursday night, models show additioanl short wave energy aloft and a weak cold front pushing into our area. This will likely result in the period with the highest coverage of showers and storms. The details such as timing of the front/main forcing will matter and are still uncertain, so we will have to wait until we get closer to see about the potential for any strong to severe storms. Right now the ensemble data joint probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of CAPE and > 30kt bulk shear are minimal at best and the chance for organized severe storms looks quite low. Upper ridging and surface high pressure will build in by the weekend, with most areas expected to be dry. The NBM just has some low chances for afternoon showers and storms mainly in the mountains both Saturday and Sunday. With the ridging building in we will also see temperatures trending back above normal during the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Persistence forecast of predominant VFR conditions and light winds for the 00Z TAF cycle. Brief period of fog/br and low clouds possible at TRI mid morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KRS