FXUS64 KMRX 041152 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 752 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 747 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 - Rain returns to the region today favoring southern and eastern most locations nearest North Carolina and Georgia. - Dry weather trend beginning tomorrow and lasting much of the coming week ahead. Slightly cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Currently in a calm period before rain chances return later this morning. Totals across the area yesterday amounted to 1 and a half to over 2, and even isolated 3+ inch amounts up through the valley. Much needed rainfall for our area. Today, we're expecting one last push of rain showers for the area when the frontal system draped to our south brings a weak low center currently in eastern Mississippi to our southeast border before heading out. Subtle shortwave energy will round the base of the trough moving overhead today. Increased jet dynamics and thus, evacuation aloft, will support the development of showers mainly along the I-40 corridor and south. Just above a half inch of additional rainfall is forecast for the southern valley and east to the border with North Carolina. But much like yesterday, activity that ends up training and dumping heavier rainfall amounts, may lead to values above that. A marginal risk for flash flooding is still in place with lesser rainfall amounts expected in SW Virginia and northeastern Tennessee, however. Embedded thunder could be possible if a shower becomes tall enough. Some light activity could linger for far southeastern areas through early tomorrow before surface high pressure dives south and east replacing the unsettled weather. The rest of the week beginning tomorrow can be characterized as dry, temperatures just above normal albeit cooler, and with northwesterly flow. A return of precipitation chances possibly won't be until next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 747 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Poor flight conditions are expected to continue through the mid to late afternoon with predominant IFR/MVFR cigs. Scattered showers have started to develop just west of the CWA, and will continue to spread into the area this afternoon. Brief vis reductions will also be possible beneath the heaviest showers. CHA will maintain the best chances for isolated thunder, so have included a mention in a prob30 group there. Uncertainty becomes high this evening into the overnight where an initial period of VFR conditons may occur before guidance suggest a mix of clouds and fog could develop across the area late tonight. Overall, HREF probs hit the TRI region with the greatest chances for fog tonight, with a redevelopment of low cigs at TYS/CHA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 63 82 56 / 70 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 61 79 52 / 70 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 78 57 78 51 / 50 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 57 74 46 / 40 20 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...KRS