FXUS64 KMRX 042319 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 719 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 716 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 - Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with greatest coverage in and along the higher terrain. A few storms could produce strong gusty winds, localized flooding, and small hail. - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue each day through the forecast period, primarily favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A low chance for localized flooding exists each day. - Near normal temperatures are expected for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 An upper level low has developed over the southeastern CONUS, while a shortwave trough is ejecting northeast in vicinity of Nova Scotia and an additional trough digs into the northern Plains. A weak southern stream vort max will promote a retrograding stationary boundary in the Piedmont this afternoon. The vort max and front will aid diurnal convective initiation within an environment of ~1500J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5-1.7 PWs, and weak steering flow. Latest 1 hr ffgs range from 1.4-1.8 inches in the foothills and East Tennessee mountains, increasing to around 1.8-2.3 inches in southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. While on the weaker side, latest mesoanalysis depicts a local increase in sfc-H85 convergence where storms have notably strengthened over the last 30 minutes. Main threats for this afternoon will be isolated strong to damaging winds gusts and localized flooding, but some of the tallest storms could exhibit small hail as well. Upper low is expected to remain in place across the region tomorrow afternoon, and slowly phase into mean flow aloft Thursday into Friday. However, the aforementioned troughing over the Northern Plains will be working into the Great Lakes region, maintaining weak upper level divergence across the southern Appalachians. Diurnal heating in a moist environment will ultimately promote continued chances of diurnal convection through at least the remainder of the weekend. With each day, isolated flooding could pose a threat with any slow moving storms that track over already saturated soils or want to latch onto terrain features. While the potential for some valley convection is possible, the greatest coverage is largely expected in areas of enhanced orographic lift. As we head into next week, the latest ECMWF depicts enhancement of the low-level jet across the the northern Ohio Valley. This will continue the chance for daily showers and storms, but long range deterministic models are not in agreement with the coverage. GFS is more bullish while the ECMWF is and the lower side. Latest NBM is bridging that gap with 40-50% PoPs. CIPS analogs keep the better chances for severe weather to our north and east in closer proximity to the strong synoptic forcing and enhanced shear. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms on radar, though likely KTYS and KTRI are done for the day. A few lingering TCUs potentially yielding TS are near KCHA, so kept a short VC group in for that possibility. Otherwise overnight is likely quiet, maybe an isolated shower. Patchy fog potentially before and at daybreak, not confident yet on inclusion, but mentioned it at KTRI, where it is usually more favorable for fog formation. Tomorrow similar weather setup, with scattered showers and TS again in the late afternoon to the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 88 72 90 / 20 60 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 86 71 87 / 20 60 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 70 87 / 20 50 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 83 / 10 60 20 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...Wellington