FXUS65 KMSO 012012 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 212 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Winter driving conditions across southwest Montana through this evening. - Cool and showery Wednesday/Thursday. Wet snow possible at mountain passes, Glacier Region and Flathead Valley Thursday. - Warmer and drier conditions return Friday and into the weekend. The low pressure system which brought wet snow across northwest Montana and near the Continental Divide this morning will continue to move southeastwards this evening. Precipitation will gradually shift to the south, mainly along the Continental Divide, bringing snow across southwest Montana (Butte/Blackfoot Region) and the Seeley-Swan valleys. Winter travel conditions will exist through roughly midnight, with passes in particular (MacDonald and Homestake) becoming slick and snowcovered. Wednesday will see cool and showery conditions continue, though moreso favoring the higher terrain. Mountains and passes will likely see brief periods of snow accumulations, especially in the early morning and overnight periods. A backdoor cold front is still anticipated to slide across the Continental Divide from Canada into northwest Montana Wednesday night into Thursday. This will enhance an area of snowfall generally along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. Slushy wet snow is expected to accumulate even into the lower elevations (generally 2500 feet and above) during the Thursday morning commute. Locations such as Kalispell, Whitefish, Columbia Falls and Eureka have a roughly 30-60 percent chance of seeing at least an inch of snowfall. Snowfall ranges between 3 and 7 inches are possible in the Glacier Region, including Marias Pass. Forecast models continue to show high confidence in high pressure bringing much drier and warmer conditions to the region this weekend into early next week. Most valley locations across western Montana and north central Idaho will reach back into the 70s by Monday. Forecast models are trending towards a weak disturbance in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, which may bring a brief cooling of temperatures, clouds and even some showers. However, the majority of forecast models rebound the ridge by the later half of the week. && .AVIATION...Wrap-around rain and snow will continue to move southeastwards this evening, focusing across southwest Montana near the Continental Divide through 02/0600Z. KBTM will likely continue to see periods of lowered ceiling and visibility. Given the recent precipitation, valley fog formation is possible tonight. KGPI is the most likely airfield to see lowered ceiling and visibility due to fog by Wednesday morning, though KMSO may also see a brief period around 02/1200z. Showers persists into Wednesday with periodic mountain obscurations expected. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. ID...None. && $$