FXUS64 KOHX 170524 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1224 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Severe weather continues into the overnight hours tonight, with damaging winds the most likely hazard. - Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend, with lower severe chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Severe storms will continue to push east through middle Tennessee into the early morning hours on Saturday. Though the threat for large hail and tornadoes has waned, they are still possible. Damaging winds are the main threat overnight with this line. The line of storms should exit around 2 - 3 in the morning, leaving us with a break through Sunday morning. Not much of a temperature cooldown with this system, as highs will remain in the 80s through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 There is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather on Sunday associated with a warm front moving through the area. The associated low pressure system will slowly move east just to the north of us, causing a period of nearly daily thunderstorm chances across the area with the possibility of some marginally severe storms as well. Out of all these chances for thunderstorms, accumulated rain looks to be in the 1 - 2" range, with the higher amounts closer to Kentucky. Cooler temperatures, well...relatively, will come on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs dropping into the 70s mid to late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Storms are currently moving through the mid-state producing brief northwesterly wind gusts to 40kts at some observation sites, but otherwise plenty of lightning and slight VIS reduction with the heavy rains. Once the storms clear out about 10Z VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 66 84 67 / 0 10 40 40 Clarksville 83 62 81 66 / 0 20 30 50 Crossville 80 59 79 60 / 0 10 30 30 Columbia 87 64 83 67 / 0 20 60 40 Cookeville 81 61 79 63 / 0 10 30 30 Jamestown 81 58 79 59 / 0 0 30 20 Lawrenceburg 85 64 82 66 / 0 20 60 40 Murfreesboro 87 64 84 65 / 0 10 40 40 Waverly 84 63 82 65 / 0 20 50 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....05